Methods and technical papers
This collection holds papers that describe the quantitative and qualitative methods used by The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), openly enough that another team could apply, test or criticize them. Each paper explains the method, its assumptions, how it was validated, where it fails and the software or data it depends on. Methods link to their canonical pages in the STEM Commons. This collection is part of the research library.
- Institution
- The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
- Service level
- R0: information and enquiries
Evidence grading
Methods and technical papers · Review wave 2
Certainty by criterion
0 low to 100 high
Higher is more certain. Values are placeholders.
Review queue
- R-1Country programmes activesecond reviewer3 d
- R-2Evidence records with labelssecond reviewer2 d
- R-3Methods appliedsecond reviewer4 d
GCRI · Evidence gradingEvidence grading, in outline: domain structure with placeholder names and illustrative values, not a record.
The short answer.
GCRI methods and technical papers describe the quantitative and qualitative methods it uses openly enough that another team could apply, test or criticize them: the method, its assumptions, how it was validated, where it fails and the software or data it depends on. Each links to its canonical page in the STEM Commons.
Draft to published version.
Fig.How a finding is reviewed before it is published. Design, not a record.
Systemic exposure in Japan and Korea.
Where people and networks concentrate, the exposure through which shocks travel between systems, shown for Japan and Korea as an example geography for this subject.
Quantitative and qualitative, held to one standard.
Both kinds of method must be described well enough to be checked.
Models and statistics
Statistical, network, simulation and optimization methods, such as uncertainty quantification.
Structured judgement
Interviews, expert elicitation, scenario workshops and case analysis, with policy and decision science.
Combined designs
Studies that combine both, stating how evidence of each kind is weighed.
Six elements in every paper.
- 01
Purpose
The question the method answers and where it should not be used.
- 02
Assumptions
What must be true for results to hold.
- 03
Validation
How the method was tested, on which data and with what result.
- 04
Failure modes
Known situations where the method gives misleading results.
- 05
Implementation
Software, versions and parameters, released where licences allow.
- 06
Review
Who reviewed the paper and its review state.
A method no one can check is not evidence.
Decisions about risk often rest on models and judgement that are hard to see. Publishing methods openly allows independent researchers, source agencies and affected communities to test them, find their weaknesses and propose improvements. Where code or data cannot be released for licensing or security reasons, the paper says so and describes the method in enough detail to be assessed.
Terms used on this page.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Technical paper | A document that sets out a method, model or dataset in enough detail for experts to review, reproduce or challenge it. |
| Computational reproducibility | Re-running the original data and code and obtaining the reported results. |
| Model validation | Comparing model predictions with independent observations to judge fitness for a stated use. |
| STEM Commons | The shared reference of science, technology, engineering and mathematics methods for the Nexus network, hosted by GCRI, with one canonical page per method and a named steward platform. |
Questions and answers.
Why publish methods separately from results?
Are qualitative methods treated as less rigorous?
Can I reuse a GCRI method?
How are methods improved over time?
Can I propose an improvement to a method?
Around GCRI.
Start with an enquiry.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.