G-P19 · PROCESS · regionalGCRI dossier · service level R0
GCRISystems Science and ModellingIn development
Regional applications

Regional subject applications

Issues in Systems Science and Modelling shared across a region, and the cooperation that addresses them. Each regional application shows its status from the programme record.

Publisher
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation
Field
Methods and modelling, Risk management and systemic risk, Research and evidence
Status
In development
Service level
R0: information and enquiries

Workstream tracker

Regional subject applications · Programme year 3

Two milestones at riskGCRI · Systems Science and Modelling

Workstreams

owner · stage · status

Model documentation templateModel stewardScopingM3 · week 9On track
Uncertainty protocolModelling leadReviewM4 · week 36Blocked
Teaching sandboxUser agencyScopingM7 · week 37On track
Validation suite buildUser agencyTestM7 · week 25Blocked
Model coupling standardModel stewardBuildM2 · week 25On track

Effort against plan

person-weeks

Model documentation…21 pw · req 27Uncertainty protocol50 pw · req 32Teaching sandbox13 pw · req 21Validation suite build8 pw · req 32

Milestones

  1. W8M1Model documentation template: scoping note signed
  2. W17M2Inputs qualified at the gate
  3. W22M3Uncertainty protocol: build review
  4. W28M4Controlled test with observers
  5. W43M5Publication and decision record

Systems Science and Modelling · Workstream trackerWorkstream tracker, in outline: domain structure with placeholder names and illustrative values, not a record.

01In brief

The short answer.

Systems Science and Modelling regional applications address problems in the methods and modelling field that the countries of a region share, such as uncertainty and validation, and the cooperation that responds to them. Each application is listed with its status from the programme record, and regional bodies and governments keep their own mandates and decisions.

02Canvas

Scoping to review.

Canvas · scoping to reviewDesign, not a record
Regional subject applications: the policy cycleA problem reaches the agenda, options are formulated and appraised, consultation tests them, the mandate holder decides, implementation and monitoring follow, and evaluation feeds the next agenda. Design of the process, not a record of a run.

Fig.A programme from scoping to the owner's decision. Design, not a record.

03Geography

Hazards and exposure in North America.

For regional subject applications, in GCRI's spatial-intelligence reading, the map opens on true-colour imagery, flood water and night lights with relief in 3D, framed on North America; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.

The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.

Layers 3

Hazards and exposure, for this page

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

For regional subject applications, in GCRI's spatial-intelligence reading, the map opens on true-colour imagery, flood water and night lights with relief in 3D, framed on North America; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · Copernicus Sentinel-2 L2ASources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). CC BY 4.0
  • GPM IMERG precipitation, NASA Precipitation Processing System; distributed by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). ODbL
  • Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
  • Globe: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © MapLibre contributors.
  • Observed (EO): Copernicus Sentinel-2 L2A (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026), Microsoft Planetary Computer
  • Optional layers (35 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.

Layers and dates

  • True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
  • Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
  • Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
  • Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
  • Precipitation rate, daily mean: GPM IMERG, NASA GES DISC · 12 Oct 2026

04Scope

Regional applications in Systems Science and Modelling.

  1. 01

    Model intercomparison

    Comparing models of the same system, and what disagreement tells you.

  2. 02

    Uncertainty and validation

    Quantifying uncertainty, validation against observations and the limits of calibration.

  3. 03

    Coupled systems modelling

    Linking water, energy, food, health and infrastructure models without hiding assumptions.

  4. 04

    Networks and cascades

    Network science for dependency, contagion and cascading failure.

  5. 05

    Agent-based and complexity models

    Behaviour, adaptation and emergence in social-technical systems.

  6. 06

    Optimization under uncertainty

    Robust and adaptive decisions when futures are deeply uncertain.

05Regional frame

Where regional cooperation on systems modelling happens.

Regional modelling networks serve analysts sharing models and data across countries, such as climate and impact or economic modelling groups. A specialist looks for shared protocols and data, drawing on complex systems and the intercomparison topic. Regional networks also host shared validation datasets.

Regional modelling networks share models and data across countries.

  • Regional climate and impact modelling networks.
  • Regional economic modelling groups.
06Status

Work is shown as its record stands.

Programmes are listed as exploring, forming, constituted, active, paused or archived. Country and regional entries appear when a programme record supports them.

07Key terms

Terms used on this page.

Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.

TermDefinition
SubsidiarityThe principle that a decision is taken at the lowest level able to take it well, with a higher level acting only where the objective cannot be achieved closer to the people concerned; the Treaty on European Union states it.
Multi-level governanceShared decision-making across local, regional, national and international levels of government.
CalibrationThe match between a model's stated confidence and how often it is actually correct.
09Questions

Questions and answers.

How do I propose work at this level?
Write to contact@therisk.global or a regional desk. A proposal receives a reference.
Systems Science and Modelling

Bring your expertise to this field.

The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.