G-P19 · PROCESS · globalGCRI dossier · service level R0
GCRISystems Science and ModellingIn development
Global subject programme

Global subject programme

Priorities of Systems Science and Modelling shared across countries, and the methods used to compare them. A global programme is a shared agenda, not a claim of global offices.

Publisher
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation
Field
Methods and modelling, Risk management and systemic risk, Research and evidence
Status
In development
Service level
R0: information and enquiries

Programme board

Model library · Global subject programme · Cycle 3 of 4

  • Workstreams active
    4Active
  • Milestones due this quarter
    5Watch
  • Decisions pending with owners
    3Watch
  • Open risks
    12
Quarter review dueGCRI · Systems Science and Modelling

Workstreams

by stage

Scoping02
Validation suite buildWS-586 · owner: Research partner
Model coupling standardWS-294 · owner: Modelling lead
In delivery02
Teaching sandboxMilestone M5 · slipping
Model documentation templateMilestone M2 · on plan
Review01
Scenario libraryIndependent reviewer named
Closed01
Uncertainty protocolClosure note on record

Gates

  1. Requestowner named
  2. Scoping noteboundary
  3. Qualifiedinputs
  4. BuildFoundry
  5. Testcontrolled
  6. Publishwith limits
  7. Decisionauthority

Systems Science and Modelling · Programme boardProgramme board, in outline: domain structure with placeholder names and illustrative values, not a record.

01In brief

The short answer.

The Systems Science and Modelling global programme is the shared agenda of priorities in the methods and modelling field that cut across countries, such as model intercomparison and reproducible modelling, with the methods used to compare them. It is an agenda, not a claim of global offices, and each element shows its status from the programme record.

02Canvas

Scoping to review.

Canvas · scoping to reviewDesign, not a record
Global subject programme: a programme through its gatesA request with a named owner becomes a scoping note; inputs are qualified at a gate; delivery runs in workstreams; a controlled test and an independent review precede publication; the owner decides. Design of the process, not a record of a run.

Fig.A programme from scoping to the owner's decision. Design, not a record.

03Geography

Hazards and exposure in North America.

For global subject programme, in GCRI's spatial-intelligence reading, the map opens on true-colour imagery, flood water and night lights with relief in 3D, framed on North America; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.

The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.

Layers 3

Hazards and exposure, for this page

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

For global subject programme, in GCRI's spatial-intelligence reading, the map opens on true-colour imagery, flood water and night lights with relief in 3D, framed on North America; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · Copernicus Sentinel-2 L2ASources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). CC BY 4.0
  • GPM IMERG precipitation, NASA Precipitation Processing System; distributed by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). ODbL
  • Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
  • Globe: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © MapLibre contributors.
  • Observed (EO): Copernicus Sentinel-2 L2A (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026), Microsoft Planetary Computer
  • Optional layers (35 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.

Layers and dates

  • True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
  • Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
  • Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
  • Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
  • Precipitation rate, daily mean: GPM IMERG, NASA GES DISC · 12 Oct 2026

04Scope

Global subject programme in Systems Science and Modelling.

  1. 01

    Model intercomparison

    Comparing models of the same system, and what disagreement tells you.

  2. 02

    Uncertainty and validation

    Quantifying uncertainty, validation against observations and the limits of calibration.

  3. 03

    Coupled systems modelling

    Linking water, energy, food, health and infrastructure models without hiding assumptions.

  4. 04

    Networks and cascades

    Network science for dependency, contagion and cascading failure.

  5. 05

    Agent-based and complexity models

    Behaviour, adaptation and emergence in social-technical systems.

  6. 06

    Optimization under uncertainty

    Robust and adaptive decisions when futures are deeply uncertain.

05Global frame

The agreements and bodies a global systems modelling programme reads against.

Process or bodyWhat it sets
ISIMIPCross-sector impact model intercomparison
CMIPClimate model intercomparison
DMDU communityDecision methods under deep uncertainty
06Status

Work is shown as its record stands.

Programmes are listed as exploring, forming, constituted, active, paused or archived. Country and regional entries appear when a programme record supports them.

07Key terms

Terms used on this page.

Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.

TermDefinition
ProgrammeA group of related projects and activities managed together to obtain benefits that managing them separately would not, in the sense the Project Management Institute's programme standard uses.
Results-based managementA management approach in which everyone contributing to a set of results makes sure their processes, products and services serve those results, and measures progress against them, as the UN Development Group handbook sets out.
Theory of changeA stated chain of causes from a programme's activities to its intended outcomes, used to plan evaluation.
VerificationConfirming that a system meets its specified requirements, often summarised as building it right.
08Sources

Where this page's references lead.

The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.

09Questions

Questions and answers.

How do I propose work at this level?
Write to contact@therisk.global or a regional desk. A proposal receives a reference.
Systems Science and Modelling

Bring your expertise to this field.

The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.