Skip to content

GCRI · Water Nexus

水文预报

Forecasting turns observations into lead time: hours for flash floods, days for river floods, weeks to a season for drought. The value is in the lead time and the stated skill, not in a single number.

02申请

What forecasting and time-series analysis does here.

Forecasting and time-series analysis predict future values of variables from past observations and explanatory information. They support 早期预警 and planning across hazards, markets and health. In water, climate and hazards and 关键基础设施, forecasts trigger early action and anticipatory finance before shocks materialise. Probabilistic forecasts allow decisions to account for uncertainty across connected 系统. The canonical description is on STEM Commons.

Flood forecasting by reach

Ensemble weather forecasts drive hydrological and hydraulic models to give the probability of exceeding warning thresholds at each gauge, by lead time.

Seasonal drought outlooks

Sub-seasonal and seasonal climate forecasts are combined with current storage and soil moisture to state the odds of deficit categories for the coming months.

Inflow forecasts for reservoirs

Operators receive inflow distributions, not point forecasts, so release rules can be set against the risk of both spill and shortage.

03地理

尼罗河流域当前的水情。

来自 NASA GIBS 的尼罗河流域降雨、洪水和根区土壤湿度数据。每个图层都标注各自的日期。

交互式地图需要JavaScript;图层列表和来源见下文。

图层 3

本页面的当前水情

关于本图层
证据
估计值
来源
GPM IMERG(NASA GES DISC)
提供方
NASA GES DISC
许可协议
NASA 开放数据
年份版本
每日;近实时卫星估算
构建时的最新内容
2026-10-12
处理结果
约 2 公里网格
不确定性
近实时卫星估算。卫星或模型栅格数据,按提供方发布的原样呈现。云层、条带缺口和反演误差会造成缺口和噪声;数值是指标,而非某地的测量值。
经由以下途径到达
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov,仅在您允许实时地图后访问
关于本图层
证据
观测(云层造成缺口)
来源
VIIRS 全球洪水产品(NASA LANCE)
提供方
NASA LANCE
许可协议
NASA 开放数据
年份版本
每日;卫星探测;云层造成缺口
构建时的最新内容
2026-10-14
处理结果
约 250 米网格
不确定性
卫星探测;云层造成缺口。卫星或模型栅格数据,按提供方发布的原样呈现。云层、条带缺口和反演误差会造成缺口和噪声;数值是指标,而非某地的测量值。
经由以下途径到达
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov,仅在您允许实时地图后访问
关于本图层
证据
模型生成
来源
SMAP Level 4 (NASA NSIDC DAAC)
提供方
NASA NSIDC DAAC
许可协议
NASA 开放数据
年份版本
每日;同化了卫星数据的模型
构建时的最新内容
2026-10-11
处理结果
约 2 公里网格
不确定性
同化了卫星数据的模型。按提供方发布形式呈现的卫星或模型栅格。云层、扫描带间隙和反演误差会造成缺口和噪声;数值为指示值,而非某一地点的实测值。
经由以下途径到达
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov,仅在您允许实时地图后访问
关于本图层
证据
观测
来源
VIIRS NOAA-20 校正反射率(NASA LANCE)
提供方
NASA LANCE
许可协议
NASA 开放数据
年份版本
每日;卫星图像
构建时的最新内容
2026-10-14
处理结果
约 250 米网格
不确定性
卫星图像。卫星或模型栅格数据,按提供方发布的原样呈现。云层、条带缺口和反演误差会造成缺口和噪声;数值是指标,而非某地的测量值。
经由以下途径到达
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov,仅在您允许实时地图后访问
关于本图层
证据
模型生成(GIBS 发布的最新年份)
来源
MODIS Terra 和 Aqua 土地覆盖(MCD12Q1)(NASA LP DAAC)
提供方
NASA LP DAAC
许可协议
NASA 开放数据
年份版本
每年;卫星分类;GIBS 发布的最新年份
构建时的最新内容
2024-01-01
处理结果
约 500 米网格
不确定性
所示年份的卫星土地覆盖类别,含农田;该分类存在已知误差,并非农场登记册。
经由以下途径到达
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov,仅在您允许实时地图后访问
关于本图层
证据
估计值
来源
世界网格化人口 v4.11(NASA SEDAC(哥伦比亚大学 CIESIN))
提供方
NASA SEDAC(哥伦比亚大学 CIESIN)
许可协议
CC BY 4.0
年份版本
null;基于人口普查的估算,静态(2020)
处理结果
约 1 公里网格
不确定性
基于人口普查的 2020 年每平方公里人口估算,作为风险暴露背景展示;不是受任何危害影响的人数。
经由以下途径到达
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov,仅在您允许实时地图后访问

最新可用

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap贡献者 (ODbL) · Natural Earth

正在加载最新的NASA影像。

拖动以移动。按住 Ctrl 或 ⌘ 并滚动、双指缩放或使用按钮缩放;悬停可查看指针下的数值;重置可返回该区域。

当前的水情,以尼罗河流域为范围。NASA 发布的卫星和模型产品,各带自己的日期。它们是指标,而非对任何地点的评估。

数据:NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap 贡献者 · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · NASA GPM IMERG Early · NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT来源与许可

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA 开放数据
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA 开放数据
  • GPM IMERG 降水,NASA 降水处理系统;由 NASA 戈达德地球科学数据和信息服务中心(GES DISC)分发;影像来自 NASA GIBS。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘;显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均(经修改)。 NASA 开放数据
  • VIIRS 近实时产品(洪水、地表温度、积雪覆盖、校正反射率),NASA LANCE;影像来自 NASA GIBS。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘;显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均(经修改)。 NASA 开放数据
  • SMAP Level 4 土壤湿度和雪量,NASA 全球建模与同化办公室;由 NASA 国家冰雪数据中心 DAAC 分发;影像来自 NASA GIBS。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘;显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均(经修改)。 NASA 开放数据
  • MODIS 陆地产品(植被指数、总初级生产力、土地覆盖),NASA LP DAAC 和 LANCE;影像来自 NASA GIBS。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘;显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均(经修改)。 NASA 开放数据
  • Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). 采用 CC BY 4.0 许可。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘;显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均(经修改)。 doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
  • ASTER GDEM 是 METI 和 NASA 的产品(ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003,NASA LP DAAC);影像来自 NASA GIBS。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘;显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均(经修改)。引用格式:NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA 开放数据
  • 使用 Natural Earth 制作。免费矢量和栅格地图数据,见 naturalearthdata.com。 公有领域
  • © OpenStreetMap 贡献者(ODbL),经由 NASA GIBS(海岸线、边界、道路和地名)。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘;显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均(经修改)。 ODbL
  • Blue Marble,NASA Earth Observatory;影像来自 NASA GIBS。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘;显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均(经修改)。 NASA 开放数据
  • 地球仪和平面地图上的背景信息:海岸线、边界、道路和地名来自 NASA GIBS 参考图层(OpenStreetMap 数据,ODbL,© OpenStreetMap contributors);Blue Marble 影像可作为可选底图;3D 地形和高程读数来自 ASTER GDEM 高程色彩指数(5 m 至 200 m 分级,为便于辨识而作了夸张处理)。边界按已发布的样式绘制,不代表对任何领土的立场。
  • 实时事件:NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker(EONET);事件仅供参考,并保留其原始来源链接。
  • 实时:NASA EONET。事件仅供参考,不是主管机构的预警。
  • Live: NASA GPM IMERG Early. We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • Observed (EO): NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • 河流流量预报,30天及区间(GloFAS,经Open-Meteo):包含经修改的Copernicus Emergency Management Service 2026年信息;非洪水警报。
  • 过去一年的每日气温(ERA5,经由 Open-Meteo):包含经修改的 Copernicus 气候变化服务 2026 年信息。
  • 过去一年的每日气温和日照(NASA POWER):这些数据来自 NASA 兰利研究中心(LaRC)POWER 项目,该项目由 NASA 地球科学/应用科学计划资助。
  • 天气数据来自 Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), 依据 CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). 授权。
  • 可选图层(图层列表中有 14 个来源:实时、预报、观测和背景)在开启时会在地图上和此处显示其提供方署名;预报是模型输出,派生指数是估计值。

图层与日期

  • 降水率,日均值:GPM IMERG,NASA GES DISC · 2026年10月12日
  • 洪水水体,3 日合成:VIIRS 全球洪水产品,NASA LANCE · 2026年10月14日
  • 根区土壤湿度,0 至 100 cm:SMAP Level 4,NASA NSIDC DAAC · 2026年10月11日
  • 真彩色:VIIRS NOAA-20 校正反射率,NASA LANCE · 2026年10月13日
  • 土地覆盖类型(IGBP),年度:MODIS Terra 和 Aqua 土地覆盖(MCD12Q1),NASA LP DAAC · 2024
  • 人口密度,2020 年:人口:哥伦比亚大学 CIESIN,世界网格化人口 v4.11(2018),NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · 静态

04数据

该方法使用的输入。

Datasets and records used by forecasting and time-series analysis on this platform, with the role each plays and the label its values carry. Sources are listed in 来源登记册.

数据角色标签
Ensemble numerical weather predictionForcing预测
Seasonal climate forecastsOutlook forcing预测
Real-time gauge telemetry数据同化观测
Snow and soil-moisture stateInitial conditions模型生成
05监测

Forecast verification.

团队遵循该方法时会使用的界面:其指标、状态与决策。名称为示例,数值仅作示意。

预报检验

Water · Hydrological forecasting · Run R-0460

Skill above referenceGCRI · Water Nexus

Forecast with range

方法卡

方法
预测与时间序列分析
编号
climatology
Lead times
1 to 11 steps
标签
模型生成

Verification by lead time

held-out period

T+20.330.290.19Skilful
T+40.200.260.33Skilful
T+60.260.090.39Marginal
T+80.330.300.28Marginal
Forecast verification: the screen’s structure, terms and states for Water.示例名称和示意数值;是设计方案,并非记录或实时系统。
06验证

结果如何核查。

Forecasts are evaluated out of sample with proper scoring rules and reliability diagrams. Rolling-origin evaluation tests performance over time.

核查如何开展
Hindcast verificationSkill is measured on past forecasts against what happened, by lead time and threshold
Reliability diagramsA forecast of thirty percent must come true about thirty percent of the time
Warning performanceHits, misses and false alarms are reported for every threshold

Structural breaks and regime changes undermine models trained on the past. Forecast skill typically declines rapidly with lead time.

07模拟器

Route a storm through a river network.

Rain becomes runoff by the curve number method, drains each sub-catchment through a linear reservoir and travels down the main stem by Muskingum routing; play it to watch the flood wave move and flatten. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction. The map on this page shows The Nile Basin; the model itself is not tied to a place.

控制措施

Storm rainfall depth
120 mm
Storm duration
12 h
Curve number (soil and land cover)
78
Catchment area
800 km²
Reaches on the main stem
5
Travel time per reach (Muskingum K)
6.0 h
Muskingum X (storage weighting)
0.20
Channel capacity per unit area
300 L/s per km²

读数

Peak discharge at the outlet
452 m³/s
Time to peak
21.6 h
Attenuation by the channel
61%
Hours over capacity
26.4 h
Runoff coefficient
52%
数字、方法与来源
HourOutlet (m³/s)Unrouted (m³/s)Upper reach (m³/s)
2.40.0678.90.0
12.0308.31,151.4181.8
21.6452.435.173.7
31.2363.31.111.1
40.8198.80.01.5
50.479.30.00.2
60.025.40.00.0
69.66.90.00.0
79.21.70.00.0
88.80.40.00.0
98.40.10.00.0
108.00.00.00.0
117.60.00.00.0
127.20.00.00.0
136.80.00.00.0

方法

  1. Curve number runoff USDA Soil Conservation Service (1972), National Engineering Handbook, Section 4: Hydrology
  2. Linear reservoir Nash (1957), The form of the instantaneous unit hydrograph, IAHS 45
  3. Muskingum channel routing McCarthy (1938); Cunge (1969), Journal of Hydraulic Research 7
  4. 不确定性扇形图(参数蒙特卡罗) Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333
  5. 单因素敏感性(龙卷风图) Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley

数据

The model runs on the teaching values set by the controls. To calibrate it for a place, read it against these admitted layers and series, which this page’s map can draw:

  • 河流 Natural Earth
  • Lakes and reservoirs Natural Earth
  • 城市 Natural Earth
  • 降雨率,最近半小时(IMERG) NASA GPM IMERG Early · 登记 nasa.gibs.context-live-layers
  • 河流流量预报,30 天及范围(GloFAS via Open-Meteo) Open-Meteo.com(CC BY 4.0)、Copernicus GloFAS · 登记 open-meteo.public-pages
  • Surface soil moisture (SMAP) NASA SMAP · register nasa.gibs.context-live-layers
  • Surface water, 30 m (OPERA DSWx-HLS) NASA JPL OPERA DSWx-HLS (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026) · register nasa.gibs.context-live-layers
  • Surface water through cloud, 30 m (OPERA DSWx-S1 radar) NASA JPL OPERA DSWx-S1 (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel-1 data 2026) · register nasa.gibs.context-live-layers
Route a storm through a river network. Illustrative teaching model: it runs on the values set by the controls, not on measured data. Methods: Curve number runoff (USDA Soil Conservation Service (1972), National Engineering Handbook, Section 4: Hydrology); Linear reservoir (Nash (1957), The form of the instantaneous unit hydrograph, IAHS 45); Muskingum channel routing (McCarthy (1938); Cunge (1969), Journal of Hydraulic Research 7).
09孪生与级联模拟器

Model hydrological forecasting as a system. Run the cascade.

Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile 水风险标准: the hazards it names, the 系统 and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Choose the components, pick an initiating hazard and step through the cascade. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every coupling weight is a stated assumption you can change. A teaching model, not a forecast, an assessment or a certification. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.

灾害

  • 山洪
  • 气象干旱
  • 地下水枯竭
  • 溃坝
  • 泥石流(在下游引发)
  • 农业干旱(在下游引发)
  • 水文干旱(在下游引发)
  • 野火 (在下游引发)
  • 泥炭与地下火(在下游引发)
  • Forest dieback (set off downstream)
  • 供水短缺(在下游引发)
  • Acute food crisis (set off downstream)
  • Dust storm (set off downstream)
  • Land subsidence (set off downstream)
  • Saltwater intrusion (set off downstream)
  • 河流洪水(在下游引发)
  • 大规模流离失所(在下游引发)
  • Amazon rainforest dieback (set off downstream)

系统与耦合

控制措施

  • NS-0 章程与原则
  • NS-1 维持社会运转的 UNI 与制品目录(语法 v0.2:领域、部门、区域和环境分段)
  • NS-3 风险记录 UNI(语法、旧编码对照、分配机构)
  • NS-3b 数据集与产品元数据规范(STAC、DCAT、PROV-O)
  • NS-9 情境 UNI(部署、实例、计划实例)
  • NS-10 政策和条款(机器可读的义务:定义、约束、评估和执行)
  • NS-11 验证与监测(证据、证明、零信任符合性观测)
  • NRS-U28 宇宙 platform profile: Water Nexus
  • NRS-H61 危害族:级联失效(NHS-1 sys.cascade)
  • NRS-K42 领域包概况:跨境流域(DOMAIN-042)
  • NRS-N1 水风险与韧性
  • NRS-N7 水-能源-粮食-卫生-生物多样性-基础设施关联耦合
  • NRS-H62 危害类别:复合与多危害事件(NHS-1 sys.compound)

观测

  • USGS Water Data APIs (listed for reference)
  • GloFAS global flood forecasts and reanalysis (listed for reference)
  • GRACE/GRACE-FO terrestrial water storage mascons (listed for reference)
  • Aqueduct 4.0 Water Risk Atlas (listed for reference)
  • CHIRPS quasi-global gridded precipitation (listed for reference)
  • Level of water stress: freshwater withdrawal as a proportion of available freshwater resources
  • Proportion of transboundary basin area with an operational arrangement for water cooperation
  • Proportion of population using safely managed drinking water services
  • Number of disruptions to basic services attributed to disasters

示例地理范围

  • The Ganges and Brahmaputra Basin: 178 hexagonal cells
  • 穿透云层的地表水,30 m(OPERA DSWx-S1 雷达),NASA GIBS
  • 过去半小时降雨率(IMERG),NASA GIBS
  • 地表土壤湿度(SMAP),NASA GIBS
  • 今夜夜间灯光与停电(VIIRS 昼夜波段),NASA GIBS
10管理责任

由谁维护该方法。

气候与灾害 stewards forecasting and time-series analysis for the Consortium and reviews how it is applied across platforms.

11部门特征

The sector signature of hydrological forecasting.

The sectors hydrological forecasting touches and how strongly they depend on each other: what a study has to observe and model together.

选择角点 · 悬停连线6 / 15 项关系

签名

水及其合作伙伴

水为粮食提供灌溉(0.8),为能源提供冷却水和水电(0.6),为生物多样性提供环境流量(0.6)。

W · E · I · F · H · B

部门
4 共 6
关系
6 共 15
耦合
0.43 占总量份额

当前最强的关系

  • 粮食 → 生物多样性 · 土地转换0.6
  • 水 → 能源 · 冷却水与水电0.6
  • 水 → 粮食 · 灌溉0.8
  • 水 → 生物多样性 · 生态流量0.6
典型城市区域的教学数值,不是任何地点的测量值。耦合是所涉关系强度的总和,以全部十五种关系的占比表示。
13方法与证据

How hydrological forecasting is modelled, measured and tested.

模型、其假设、数据和不确定性,以科学家或工程师会核查的形式呈现。结构遵循已发表的方法。所取数值仅为示意,不是研究发现。

系统模型

The couplings between the systems in hydrological forecasting: signs of influence, a reinforcing and a balancing loop, and cross-links where stress jumps.

++−++水气候关键基础设施社区经济R 增强B 平衡
Causal loop diagram from the page’s systems; signs show the direction of influence. Illustrative structure for a system dynamics or network model, not estimated couplings.
FAIR 指导原则 · GO FAIR 和 FORCE11W3C PROV · 万维网联盟关于一致处理不确定性的指南 · IPCCCEOS 分析就绪数据 · 地球观测卫星委员会
14问题

问题与解答。

What are the limits of forecasting and time-series analysis in this field?
Structural breaks and regime changes undermine models trained on the past. Forecast skill typically declines rapidly with lead time.
结果如何核查?
Forecasts are evaluated out of sample with proper scoring rules and reliability diagrams. Rolling-origin evaluation tests performance over time.
本页面上的数值是真实的吗?
The data names, roles and checks are real descriptions of practice. The canvas shows a design of the method’s use, not a run; no result is reported here.
该方法还应用于何处?
维持社会运转的 规范方法页面 列出应用该方法的每个平台。
报告贡献

从本页贡献证据。

报告 is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

GCRIWater Nexus全球部门风险与韧性国家系统风险与韧性观测站信号
Water Nexus

带来一种方法、一个数据集或一个问题。

信息和咨询现已开放。每项咨询都会获得一个编号,并告知下一步;申请、付款、算力分配和注册只有在相应团队、条款和审查能力就绪时才会开放。