GCRI · Global challenges
Risk transmission examples
Systemic risk is easier to grasp through examples of stress travelling from one system into others. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) presents them as annotated pathways with their evidence boundaries stated. The pathways below illustrate mechanisms; they record no particular event. A documented case enters only with cited sources, a labelled evidence type and stated limits of attribution. Part of global challenges.
01Workspace
The workspace for risk transmission examples.
GCRI · GCRI · Country programme consoleIllustrative
Country programme console
Risk transmission examples · Country programme A · Month 8 · Example interface, not a record
National Model in buildGCRI · GCRI
Programme
- Formationdossier
- National Deskstaffed
- National Modelbuild
- Portfoliooptions
- Annual missiontest
- Reportedition
System coupling
dependency strength, 0 to 100
Example strengths a National Model replaces with estimates.
Evidence ledger
| Reservoir storage | OBSERVED | National Desk |
| Hydropower output | MODELLED | Technical office |
| Grid stress | SCENARIO | Technical office |
| Hospital continuity | ESTIMATED | Health ministry |
GCRI · Country programme console. Country programme console: example names and illustrative values, not a record.
02Illustrative pathways
Mechanisms, labelled as illustrations.
| Starting stress | How it can travel | Systems reached |
|---|---|---|
| Prolonged drought | Reservoirs fall, hydropower and thermal plant cooling decline, water treatment loses power as demand peaks | Water, energy, health |
| Heatwave | Electricity demand rises while cooling water warms, curtailment follows, hospitals and data services strain | Energy, health, digital services |
| Port outage | Fuel and food imports pause, customs and payment systems slow, prices respond | Trade, food, finance |
| Upstream deforestation | Flood peaks and sediment rise, damaging treatment works, reservoirs and downstream farms | Nature, water, energy, food |
Illustrative pathways. They describe plausible mechanisms and are not findings about any country, place or event.
03How an example is documented
The record a documented transmission example has to carry.
| Field | What it holds | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Initiating event | Hazard or failure, date, place, with the agency source | Fixes the start of the chain in a verifiable record |
| Each step | System reached, mechanism, time lag in hours or days, source | Lets a reader check every link separately |
| Evidence label per step | Observed, published statistics, estimated, modelled or expert judgement | Keeps a well-recorded step from lending credibility to a weak one |
| Attribution note | Other causes that contributed; what cannot be separated | Avoids presenting correlation as causation |
| Rights and sensitivity | Terms of each source; restricted detail withheld | Protects operators, communities and personal data |
Compound and cascading events are the hardest to document because loss databases record events by hazard type and place. Zscheischler and colleagues set out in 2018 a typology of compound events that helps classify a case before it is written up.
04From example to report
Where documented examples go, and how to offer one.
A documented example that passes review is designed for the Evidence Brief series or, where it informs a scenario, the Scenario and Stress-Test series. Each step’s source would be cited in the format of NS-2 of the proposed Nexus Standards.
Offer an example with a source for each step, including the steps you are unsure of; an honest gap is more useful than a confident guess.
05Evidence boundaries
What a documented example must show.
- 01
Cited sources
Each step links to its source, with the original source authority retained.
- 02
Evidence label
Each step is labelled observed, published statistics, estimated, modelled or expert judgement.
- 03
Attribution limits
Where other causes contributed, the example says so. Correlation is not presented as causation.
- 04
Rights and sensitivity
Restricted infrastructure detail and protected community knowledge never appear in examples.
06Why it matters
Examples show where sector-by-sector assessment falls short.
Each pathway crosses mandates that are usually assessed apart. Seeing the whole chain shows the common points of failure and the interventions that strengthen several systems at once. The methods: systemic and cascading risks and models and scenarios. The five core systems: water, energy, food, health and nature.
The Global Risks Forum (GRF) collects governance lessons in its governance case studies.
07Sources
Where this page’s references lead.
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
- Zscheischler and others, Future climate risk from compound events, Nature Climate Change 8 (2018)
- EM-DAT, the international disaster database (CRED, UCLouvain)
- DesInventar Sendai national disaster loss databases (UNDRR)
- Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2019, the systemic risk edition (UNDRR, 2019)
- NS-2, Citation and attribution format for UNIs, a proposed standard
08Questions
Questions and answers.
Are these examples real events?
The pathways on this page are illustrations of mechanisms. Documented examples of particular events are added only with cited sources and labelled evidence.
Can I submit a case example?
Yes. Write to the research collaboration form with the sources for each step. A submission receives a reference, and publication depends on review and rights.
Why not quantify the losses in each example?
Loss figures need a sourced record and a clear method. GCRI does not publish figures without them, and shows missing data as missing.
How do examples feed into country work?
They help frame questions that national programmes may choose to test. Any country finding is published only after review, with its own sources and methods.
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Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
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