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GCRI · Global challenges

Economic transformation

Digital technology, the energy transition, automation and shifting trade are reshaping economies. They can bring industries, productivity and jobs. They can also concentrate gains, strand assets and workers, and create new dependence. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) studies opportunity and risk together: who gains, who bears the risk and what capability a country needs. Part of global challenges.

01Workspace

The workspace for economic transformation.

Country programme console

Economic transformation · Country programme A · Month 7 · Example interface, not a record

National Model in buildGCRI · GCRI

Programme

  1. Formationdossier
  2. National Deskstaffed
  3. National Modelbuild
  4. Portfoliooptions
  5. Annual missiontest
  6. Reportedition

System coupling

dependency strength, 0 to 100

Example strengths a National Model replaces with estimates.

Evidence ledger

Reservoir storageOBSERVEDNational Desk
Hydropower outputMODELLEDTechnical office
Grid stressSCENARIOTechnical office
Hospital continuityESTIMATEDHealth ministry
Country programme console.Illustrative interface; not live data.

GCRI · Country programme console. Country programme console: example names and illustrative values, not a record.

02The challenge

Transformation creates winners, losers and new exposures.

Industry

New productive capacity

Countries seek to move into higher-value production, often depending on imported technology, finance and inputs.

Work

Jobs and skills

Automation and AI change tasks faster than training systems adapt, with uneven effects by region, age and gender.

Inequality

Who bears the risk

Shocks and transitions fall hardest on households and firms with the least buffer, which can deepen inequality.

03Geography

Hazards and exposure worldwide.

Population density, night lights and flood water across the world, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.

The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.

Layers 3

Hazards and exposure, for this page

About this layer
Evidence
Estimated
Source
Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University))
Provider
NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University)
Licence
CC BY 4.0
Vintage
null; Census-based estimate, static (2020)
Resolution
about 1 km grid
Uncertainty
Census-based estimate of people per square kilometre in 2020, shown as exposure context; not a count of people affected by any hazard.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Observed
Source
VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2) (NASA LAADS DAAC)
Provider
NASA LAADS DAAC
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite radiance, corrected for moonlight and atmosphere
Newest at build
2026-10-12
Resolution
about 500 m grid
Uncertainty
Satellite night-time radiance for the date shown; lights are a proxy for electricity use and outages, not a measurement of supply or access.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Observed (clouds leave gaps)
Source
VIIRS Global Flood Product (NASA LANCE)
Provider
NASA LANCE
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps
Newest at build
2026-10-14
Resolution
about 250 m grid
Uncertainty
Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Observed
Source
VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance (NASA LANCE)
Provider
NASA LANCE
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite image
Newest at build
2026-10-14
Resolution
about 250 m grid
Uncertainty
Satellite image. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Observed (clouds and overpass timing leave gaps)
Source
VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS) (NASA LANCE FIRMS)
Provider
NASA LANCE FIRMS
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite detection; clouds and overpass timing leave gaps
Newest at build
2026-10-13
Resolution
about 500 m grid
Uncertainty
Satellite hot-spot detections for the day shown, including gas flares and industrial heat; not a confirmed fire, an incident report or a warning.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Modelled (latest year GIBS publishes)
Source
MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1) (NASA LP DAAC)
Provider
NASA LP DAAC
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
yearly; Satellite classification; latest year GIBS publishes
Newest at build
2024-01-01
Resolution
about 500 m grid
Uncertainty
Satellite land cover classes for the year shown, including croplands; a classification with known errors, not a farm register.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

Hazards and exposure, framed on the world.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · U.S. Geological Survey · NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERTSources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
  • VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
  • Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
  • Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
  • Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
  • Live: U.S. Geological Survey Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
  • Observed (EO): NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • River discharge forecast, 30 days with range (GloFAS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Emergency Management Service information 2026; not a flood warning.
  • Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
  • Optional layers (11 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.

Layers and dates

  • Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
  • Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
  • True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
  • Active fires and thermal anomalies: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
  • Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024

04Measures

How structural change and its risks are measured.

ConceptMeasure and unitSource and caveat
Structural transformationSector shares of value added and employment; labour productivity in output per worker in constant currencyNational accounts under the System of National Accounts; the 2025 SNA, adopted by the UN Statistical Commission in 2025, is being introduced over several years
Export concentrationConcentration index of export products and markets, from zero to oneUN Comtrade; mirror data differ
Labour market exposure to automation and AIShare of employment in occupations with high task exposure, by occupation code (ISCO-08)ILO estimates (Gmyrek, Berg and Bescond, 2023) measure exposure, not job loss
InformalityInformal employment as a share of total employmentILO estimates from labour force surveys; definitions follow the 21st ICLS
Stranded assetsBook value or output capacity at risk of early retirement under a transition pathwayModelled under scenarios such as those of the NGFS; highly assumption-dependent

The ILO’s World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2025 and UNCTAD’s annual investment reports give the global context; country work rests on national statistics, with their release lags and revisions stated.

05Twin and cascade simulator

Model economic transformation as a system. Run the cascade.

Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile Global and systemic risk: the hazards it names, the systems and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Choose the components, pick an initiating hazard and step through the cascade. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every coupling weight is a stated assumption you can change. A teaching model, not a forecast, an assessment or a certification. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.

Hazards

  • Dam failure
  • Financial contagion
  • River flood (set off downstream)
  • Flash flood (set off downstream)
  • Mass displacement (set off downstream)
  • Widespread power outage (set off downstream)
  • Water supply shortfall (set off downstream)
  • Sovereign debt crisis (set off downstream)
  • Currency crisis (set off downstream)

Controls

  • NS-0 Constitution and principles
  • NS-3 Risk record UNIs (grammar, legacy crosswalk, allocation authority)
  • NS-9 Contextual UNIs (deployments, instances, programme instances)
  • NS-10 Policies and clauses (machine-readable obligations: definition, binding, evaluation and enforcement)
  • NS-11 Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)
  • NS-14 Conformance and crosswalk to external standards
  • NRS-H120 Hazard family: Structural fragility of interconnected systems (NHS-1 sys.fragility)
  • NRS-C6 Systemic and cascading risk
  • NRS-H61 Hazard family: Cascading failure (NHS-1 sys.cascade)
  • NRS-H62 Hazard family: Compound and multi-hazard events (NHS-1 sys.compound)
  • NRS-H94 Hazard family: Systemic cyber events (NHS-1 cyber.systemic-cyber)
  • NRS-H60 Hazard family: Supply-chain and flow disruption (NHS-1 sys.supply-chain)

Observation

  • INFORM Risk Index (listed for reference)
  • World Bank Open Data and World Development Indicators API (listed for reference)
  • IMF data services (WEO, IFS, FSI via SDMX) (listed for reference)
  • Direct economic loss attributed to disasters in relation to global GDP
  • Macroeconomic Dashboard

Example geography

  • Bangladesh: 134 hexagonal cells
  • Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
  • Surface water through cloud, 30 m (OPERA DSWx-S1 radar), NASA GIBS
  • Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG), NASA GIBS
  • Surface soil moisture (SMAP), NASA GIBS
06Methods and limits

The tools for transition analysis, and what they cannot settle.

MethodUseLimit
Computable general equilibrium modelsEconomy-wide effects of an energy or trade transitionAssume markets clear; weak on unemployment and finance
Input-output and employment multipliersJobs and output linked to an investment or a shockFixed coefficients; no price response
Impact evaluation (randomised and quasi-experimental)Whether a programme changed outcomesResults are local; external validity must be argued
Task-based exposure analysisWhich occupations’ tasks overlap with what automation or AI can doExposure is not displacement; adoption, regulation and new tasks decide outcomes

The ILO Guidelines for a just transition (2015) frame the social side: social dialogue, social protection and skills policy as conditions for a transition that people can accept.

07GCRI’s part

Evidence on opportunity and risk together, for ministries that decide.

GCRI studies economic structure, transitions and their distribution, and helps ministries test pathways. It makes no investment recommendation and does not lend or fund. Readiness work never substitutes for a financing decision. The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) takes up finance questions within its own boundaries. Field work sits with the Economic Development platform and the Future of Work and Skills platform.

Findings are designed for the Country Systems Risk and Resilience series and, for technology-driven change, the Exponential Technology series. Contributions that help: evaluations with null results, sub-national labour data, and evidence of how a past transition affected a region.

08How GCRI approaches it

Evidence on opportunity and risk together.

  1. 01

    Map the economic structure

    Sectors, supply chains and dependencies, using economics and development economics and econometrics.

  2. 02

    Test transition pathways

    Scenarios for industrial, energy and digital transitions, with assumptions and uncertainty stated.

  3. 03

    Evaluate what works

    Programme effects measured with causal inference and impact evaluation, including when results are null.

  4. 04

    Inform competent decisions

    Options go to the ministries and institutions that decide. GCRI makes no investment recommendations.

09Where to go next

Platforms, fields and counterparts.

Field work runs through the Economic Development platform and the Future of Work and Skills platform, and the economic development field gateway. The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) examines development finance under development readiness. See also industry, resources and trade and society and human development.

GCRI does not lend, invest or advise on transactions, and a readiness record is not a financing decision.

11Questions

Questions and answers.

Does GCRI produce economic forecasts?
GCRI produces scenario analysis and evaluation, labelled as modelled or scenario evidence. It does not publish point forecasts presented as predictions.
How does this relate to risk?
Economic structure determines how shocks spread and who absorbs them. A concentrated export base, a single energy import route or a narrow skills pool are both development and risk questions.
Can a ministry ask for a study?
Yes. Governments can request a country-scoping dialogue through the Secretariat. The first outcome is a scoping note, an authority map and a decision on whether to proceed.
Are development outcomes measured?
Where a programme includes evaluation, its method and results are published, including negative or null findings, with their uncertainty.
Does GCRI take a position on trade or industrial policy?
No. GCRI sets out evidence, options and their trade-offs for the competent authorities. It does not advocate a policy or a political position, and it keeps evidence separate from the implications drawn from it.
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