Economic transformation
Economies are being reshaped by digital technology, the energy transition, automation and shifting trade. These changes can bring new industries, productivity and jobs; they can also concentrate gains, strand assets and workers, and create new dependence. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) studies economic opportunity together with its risks: industry, jobs, the digital transition and inequality, so that countries can see who gains, who bears the risk and what capability they need. This page is part of global challenges.
- Institution
- The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
- Service level
- R0: information and enquiries
Country programme console
Economic transformation · Country programme A · Month 7
Programme
- Formationdossier
- National Deskstaffed
- National Modelbuild
- Portfoliooptions
- Annual missiontest
- Reportedition
System coupling
dependency strength, 0 to 100
Placeholder strengths a National Model replaces with estimates.
Evidence ledger
| Reservoir storage | OBSERVED | National Desk |
| Hydropower output | MODELLED | Technical office |
| Grid stress | SCENARIO | Technical office |
| Hospital continuity | ESTIMATED | Health ministry |
GCRI · Country programme consoleCountry programme console, in outline: domain structure with placeholder names and illustrative values, not a record.
The short answer.
Economic transformation is the reshaping of economies by digital technology, the energy transition, automation and shifting trade, which can bring industries, productivity and jobs while concentrating gains, stranding assets and workers and creating new dependence. GCRI studies opportunity and risk together, across industry, jobs, the digital transition and inequality.
Systemic exposure in Japan and Korea.
Where people and networks concentrate, the exposure through which shocks travel between systems, shown for Japan and Korea as an example geography for this subject.
Transformation creates winners, losers and new exposures.
New productive capacity
Countries seek to move into higher-value production, often depending on imported technology, finance and inputs.
Jobs and skills
Automation and AI change tasks faster than training systems adapt, with uneven effects by region, age and gender.
Who bears the risk
Shocks and transitions fall hardest on households and firms with the least buffer, which can deepen inequality.
Evidence on opportunity and risk together.
- 01
Map the economic structure
Sectors, supply chains and dependencies, using economics and development economics and econometrics.
- 02
Test transition pathways
Scenarios for industrial, energy and digital transitions, with assumptions and uncertainty stated.
- 03
Evaluate what works
Programme effects measured with causal inference and impact evaluation, including when results are null.
- 04
Inform competent decisions
Options go to the ministries and institutions that decide. GCRI makes no investment recommendations.
Terms used on this page.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Structural transformation | The shift of labour and output from lower- to higher-productivity activities. |
| Just transition | Greening the economy in a way that is fair and inclusive for workers and communities. |
| Stranded asset | An asset that loses value or earning power early because of regulatory, market or physical change. |
| Inclusive growth | Growth whose benefits are widely shared across income groups, regions and genders. |
Platforms, fields and counterparts.
Field work is organized through the Economic Development platform and Future of Work and Skills platform, both in development, and the economic development field gateway. Development finance questions are examined by The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) under development readiness. See also industry, resources and trade and society and human development.
GCRI does not lend, invest or advise on transactions, and a readiness record is not a financing decision.
Questions and answers.
Does GCRI produce economic forecasts?
How does this relate to risk?
Can a ministry ask for a study?
Are development outcomes measured?
Does GCRI take a position on trade or industrial policy?
Around GCRI.
Start with an enquiry.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.