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GCRI · Global challenges

Society and human development

People feel risk in health, income, education, housing, safety and trust. Population change, migration, inequality and community strength shape how societies absorb shocks and take up opportunity. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) studies wellbeing, population, equity and community resilience, so evidence reflects who is affected, and communities take part rather than only being studied. Part of global challenges.

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01Workspace

The workspace for society and human development.

Country programme console

Society and human development · Country programme A · Month 10 · Example interface, not a record

National Model in buildGCRI · GCRI

Programme

  1. Formationdossier
  2. National Deskstaffed
  3. National Modelbuild
  4. Portfoliooptions
  5. Annual missiontest
  6. Reportedition

System coupling

dependency strength, 0 to 100

Example strengths a National Model replaces with estimates.

Evidence ledger

Reservoir storageOBSERVEDNational Desk
Hydropower outputMODELLEDTechnical office
Grid stressSCENARIOTechnical office
Hospital continuityESTIMATEDHealth ministry
Country programme console.Illustrative interface; not live data.

GCRI · Country programme console. Country programme console: example names and illustrative values, not a record.

02The challenge

Shocks widen gaps that already exist.

Social conditions are not only consequences of risk; they shape it. Strong local institutions, trust and inclusion help communities absorb shocks and recover.

Wellbeing

Health, income and learning

Disruptions interrupt schooling, care and earnings, with effects that can last a generation.

Population

Ageing, youth and movement

Demographic change and displacement alter demand for services and the people available to provide them.

Equity

Unequal exposure

Those with the least savings, insurance and voice often live and work where risk is highest.

03Geography

People and exposure worldwide.

Population density and night lights across the world, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.

The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.

Layers 2

People and exposure, for this page

About this layer
Evidence
Estimated
Source
Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University))
Provider
NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University)
Licence
CC BY 4.0
Vintage
null; Census-based estimate, static (2020)
Resolution
about 1 km grid
Uncertainty
Census-based estimate of people per square kilometre in 2020, shown as exposure context; not a count of people affected by any hazard.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Observed
Source
VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2) (NASA LAADS DAAC)
Provider
NASA LAADS DAAC
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite radiance, corrected for moonlight and atmosphere
Newest at build
2026-10-12
Resolution
about 500 m grid
Uncertainty
Satellite night-time radiance for the date shown; lights are a proxy for electricity use and outages, not a measurement of supply or access.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Observed (persistent cloud still leaves gaps)
Source
VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day (NASA LANCE)
Provider
NASA LANCE
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
8-day; Satellite 8-day composite; persistent cloud still leaves gaps
Newest at build
2026-09-14
Resolution
about 1 km grid
Uncertainty
Satellite skin temperature of the ground over the 8 days ending on the date shown, a heat exposure indicator; not air temperature, heat index or a heat warning.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Observed
Source
VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance (NASA LANCE)
Provider
NASA LANCE
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite image
Newest at build
2026-10-14
Resolution
about 250 m grid
Uncertainty
Satellite image. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Modelled (latest year GIBS publishes)
Source
MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1) (NASA LP DAAC)
Provider
NASA LP DAAC
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
yearly; Satellite classification; latest year GIBS publishes
Newest at build
2024-01-01
Resolution
about 500 m grid
Uncertainty
Satellite land cover classes for the year shown, including croplands; a classification with known errors, not a farm register.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Observed (clouds leave gaps)
Source
OMI Aura (NASA GES DISC)
Provider
NASA GES DISC
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite retrieval; clouds leave gaps
Newest at build
2026-10-10
Resolution
about 2 km grid
Uncertainty
Satellite column of nitrogen dioxide in the lower atmosphere on the day shown, mostly from combustion; not a ground-level concentration or a health warning.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

People and exposure, framed on the world.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERTSources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
  • VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • OMI nitrogen dioxide (Aura) and OMPS aerosol index (Suomi NPP), NASA; distributed by the NASA GES DISC; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
  • Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
  • Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
  • Observed (EO): NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • Air quality forecast, 5 days, PM2.5 (CAMS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service information 2026.
  • Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
  • Optional layers (9 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.

Layers and dates

  • Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
  • Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026
  • True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
  • Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
  • Nitrogen dioxide, lower atmosphere column: OMI Aura, NASA GES DISC · 10 Oct 2026

04Measures

How wellbeing, displacement and equity are measured, with each measure’s limits.

ConceptMeasure and unitSource and caveat
Human developmentHuman Development Index, from zero to one, and its inequality-adjusted formUNDP Human Development Report 2025; composite, sensitive to weighting
Multidimensional povertyShare of people deprived in a weighted set of health, education and living-standard indicatorsGlobal Multidimensional Poverty Index (UNDP and OPHI); survey years differ by country
Population changePopulation by age and sex; dependency ratio; projected rangesWorld Population Prospects 2024; projections carry probabilistic intervals
Forced displacementRefugees, asylum seekers and internally displaced people, in personsUNHCR Global Trends; IDMC Global Report on Internal Displacement 2025; counts are estimates, and disaster displacement is counted in movements, not people
Social protection coverageShare of population covered by at least one benefitILO World Social Protection data; administrative records vary

Averages hide the people most at risk. Results are disaggregated by sex, age, disability, location and income wherever sample sizes allow, and where they do not, the page says so rather than reporting a misleading figure.

05Twin and cascade simulator

Model society and human development as a system. Run the cascade.

Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile Global and systemic risk: the hazards it names, the systems and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Choose the components, pick an initiating hazard and step through the cascade. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every coupling weight is a stated assumption you can change. A teaching model, not a forecast, an assessment or a certification. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.

Hazards

  • Dam failure
  • Financial contagion
  • River flood (set off downstream)
  • Flash flood (set off downstream)
  • Mass displacement (set off downstream)
  • Widespread power outage (set off downstream)
  • Water supply shortfall (set off downstream)
  • Sovereign debt crisis (set off downstream)
  • Currency crisis (set off downstream)

Controls

  • NS-0 Constitution and principles
  • NS-3 Risk record UNIs (grammar, legacy crosswalk, allocation authority)
  • NS-9 Contextual UNIs (deployments, instances, programme instances)
  • NS-10 Policies and clauses (machine-readable obligations: definition, binding, evaluation and enforcement)
  • NS-11 Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)
  • NS-14 Conformance and crosswalk to external standards
  • NRS-H120 Hazard family: Structural fragility of interconnected systems (NHS-1 sys.fragility)
  • NRS-C6 Systemic and cascading risk
  • NRS-H61 Hazard family: Cascading failure (NHS-1 sys.cascade)
  • NRS-H62 Hazard family: Compound and multi-hazard events (NHS-1 sys.compound)
  • NRS-H94 Hazard family: Systemic cyber events (NHS-1 cyber.systemic-cyber)
  • NRS-H60 Hazard family: Supply-chain and flow disruption (NHS-1 sys.supply-chain)

Observation

  • INFORM Risk Index (listed for reference)
  • World Bank Open Data and World Development Indicators API (listed for reference)
  • IMF data services (WEO, IFS, FSI via SDMX) (listed for reference)
  • Direct economic loss attributed to disasters in relation to global GDP
  • Macroeconomic Dashboard

Example geography

  • Bangladesh: 134 hexagonal cells
  • Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
  • Surface water through cloud, 30 m (OPERA DSWx-S1 radar), NASA GIBS
  • Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG), NASA GIBS
  • Surface soil moisture (SMAP), NASA GIBS
06Methods and ethics

Research with people, and the safeguards it needs.

  • Surveys and administrative data give coverage but miss people outside registers: informal workers, undocumented migrants, people in institutions.
  • Participatory and qualitative methods reach what surveys miss and need informed consent, the right to withdraw and return of findings to participants.
  • Indigenous data follow the CARE Principles (Carroll and others, 2020): collective benefit, authority to control, responsibility and ethics. Protected knowledge never enters public examples or model training.
  • Small-area estimation produces local figures from national surveys with models, and is labelled as estimated with its error.
07GCRI’s part

Evidence that shows who is affected, for those who decide social policy.

GCRI studies how shocks and transitions reach people, with communities taking part rather than only being studied. It provides no humanitarian assistance and sets no social policy; those belong to authorities, humanitarian organisations and the communities concerned. Field work sits with the Society and Human Development platform.

Findings are designed for the Country Systems Risk and Resilience series and the Evidence Brief series. Contributions that help most come from communities themselves: local accounts of how a shock was absorbed, corrections to how a place is described, and offers to co-design a study.

08How GCRI approaches it

Evidence with people, under clear safeguards.

  1. 01

    Disaggregate

    Results broken down by place, age, gender and income where data allows, using social and behavioural science and spatial statistics.

  2. 02

    Involve communities

    Local knowledge and challenge through consent-aware routes, described for communities and civil society.

  3. 03

    Protect knowledge

    Protected community and Indigenous knowledge never enters public examples or model training.

  4. 04

    Measure honestly

    Effects on wellbeing are evaluated with stated methods, and null or negative results are reported.

09Where to go next

Platforms, chapters and counterparts.

Field work runs through the Society and Human Development platform, with chapters on humanitarian risk and displacement and population and demographic futures. The society and human development field gateway links the three institutions. The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) examines economic and social consequences for finance. See also economic transformation.

GCRI’s evidence informs public choices; it does not decide social policy, which remains with competent authorities and the communities concerned.

10Sources

Where this page’s references lead.

The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.

11Questions

Questions and answers.

Does GCRI collect personal data about communities?
Only where a study requires it, under consent, a stated purpose and rights terms. Public outputs use aggregated or permitted data, and no personal data appears in examples.
Can a community raise a concern about a study?
Yes, without membership or an account. Write to the integrity concern form. A concern receives an acknowledgement and a reasoned response or disposition.
How is Indigenous knowledge treated?
Through co-design records, knowledge-use schedules, benefit plans and withdrawal conditions agreed with the rights-holders. Protected knowledge never enters public examples or model training.
Does GCRI provide humanitarian assistance?
No. GCRI produces evidence and supports preparedness. Humanitarian assistance is delivered by humanitarian organisations and authorities.
How does innovation relate to human development?
New technologies can widen access to health care, learning and public services, or deepen divides if access and skills are uneven. GCRI studies both outcomes, including who is left out.
ReportsContribute

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Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

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