GCRI · Global challenges
Economic transformation
Digital technology, the energy transition, automation and shifting trade are reshaping economies. They can bring industries, productivity and jobs. They can also concentrate gains, strand assets and workers, and create new dependence. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) studies opportunity and risk together: who gains, who bears the risk and what capability a country needs. Part of global challenges.
The workspace for economic transformation.
Country programme console
Economic transformation · Country programme A · Month 7 · Example interface, not a record
Programme
- Formationdossier
- National Deskstaffed
- National Modelbuild
- Portfoliooptions
- Annual missiontest
- Reportedition
System coupling
dependency strength, 0 to 100
Example strengths a National Model replaces with estimates.
Evidence ledger
| Reservoir storage | OBSERVED | National Desk |
| Hydropower output | MODELLED | Technical office |
| Grid stress | SCENARIO | Technical office |
| Hospital continuity | ESTIMATED | Health ministry |
GCRI · Country programme console. Country programme console: example names and illustrative values, not a record.
Transformation creates winners, losers and new exposures.
New productive capacity
Countries seek to move into higher-value production, often depending on imported technology, finance and inputs.
Jobs and skills
Automation and AI change tasks faster than training systems adapt, with uneven effects by region, age and gender.
Who bears the risk
Shocks and transitions fall hardest on households and firms with the least buffer, which can deepen inequality.
Hazards and exposure worldwide.
Population density, night lights and flood water across the world, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 3
Hazards and exposure, for this page
About this layer
- Evidence
- Estimated
- Source
- Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University))
- Provider
- NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University)
- Licence
- CC BY 4.0
- Vintage
- null; Census-based estimate, static (2020)
- Resolution
- about 1 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Census-based estimate of people per square kilometre in 2020, shown as exposure context; not a count of people affected by any hazard.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed
- Source
- VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2) (NASA LAADS DAAC)
- Provider
- NASA LAADS DAAC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite radiance, corrected for moonlight and atmosphere
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-12
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite night-time radiance for the date shown; lights are a proxy for electricity use and outages, not a measurement of supply or access.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (clouds leave gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS Global Flood Product (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-14
- Resolution
- about 250 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite image
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-14
- Resolution
- about 250 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite image. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (clouds and overpass timing leave gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS) (NASA LANCE FIRMS)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE FIRMS
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite detection; clouds and overpass timing leave gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-13
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite hot-spot detections for the day shown, including gas flares and industrial heat; not a confirmed fire, an incident report or a warning.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Modelled (latest year GIBS publishes)
- Source
- MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1) (NASA LP DAAC)
- Provider
- NASA LP DAAC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- yearly; Satellite classification; latest year GIBS publishes
- Newest at build
- 2024-01-01
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite land cover classes for the year shown, including croplands; a classification with known errors, not a farm register.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
Keyboard, with the map focused
Hold Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll to zoom
Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
Loading the latest NASA imagery.
Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
Hazards and exposure, framed on the world.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · U.S. Geological Survey · NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERTSources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
- Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Live: U.S. Geological Survey Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Observed (EO): NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- River discharge forecast, 30 days with range (GloFAS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Emergency Management Service information 2026; not a flood warning.
- Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
- Optional layers (11 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
- Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
- Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
- True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
- Active fires and thermal anomalies: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
- Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
How structural change and its risks are measured.
| Concept | Measure and unit | Source and caveat |
|---|---|---|
| Structural transformation | Sector shares of value added and employment; labour productivity in output per worker in constant currency | National accounts under the System of National Accounts; the 2025 SNA, adopted by the UN Statistical Commission in 2025, is being introduced over several years |
| Export concentration | Concentration index of export products and markets, from zero to one | UN Comtrade; mirror data differ |
| Labour market exposure to automation and AI | Share of employment in occupations with high task exposure, by occupation code (ISCO-08) | ILO estimates (Gmyrek, Berg and Bescond, 2023) measure exposure, not job loss |
| Informality | Informal employment as a share of total employment | ILO estimates from labour force surveys; definitions follow the 21st ICLS |
| Stranded assets | Book value or output capacity at risk of early retirement under a transition pathway | Modelled under scenarios such as those of the NGFS; highly assumption-dependent |
The ILO’s World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2025 and UNCTAD’s annual investment reports give the global context; country work rests on national statistics, with their release lags and revisions stated.
Model economic transformation as a system. Run the cascade.
Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile Global and systemic risk: the hazards it names, the systems and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Choose the components, pick an initiating hazard and step through the cascade. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every coupling weight is a stated assumption you can change. A teaching model, not a forecast, an assessment or a certification. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.
Hazards
- Dam failure
- Financial contagion
- River flood (set off downstream)
- Flash flood (set off downstream)
- Mass displacement (set off downstream)
- Widespread power outage (set off downstream)
- Water supply shortfall (set off downstream)
- Sovereign debt crisis (set off downstream)
- Currency crisis (set off downstream)
Systems and couplings
- Global and systemic risk
- Compound and cascading hazard standards Mechanism
- Financial stability and prudential risk Mechanism
- Supply chain and trade risk Cascade
- Future generations and long-term risk Common driver
Controls
NS-0Constitution and principlesNS-3Risk record UNIs (grammar, legacy crosswalk, allocation authority)NS-9Contextual UNIs (deployments, instances, programme instances)NS-10Policies and clauses (machine-readable obligations: definition, binding, evaluation and enforcement)NS-11Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)NS-14Conformance and crosswalk to external standardsNRS-H120Hazard family: Structural fragility of interconnected systems (NHS-1 sys.fragility)NRS-C6Systemic and cascading riskNRS-H61Hazard family: Cascading failure (NHS-1 sys.cascade)NRS-H62Hazard family: Compound and multi-hazard events (NHS-1 sys.compound)NRS-H94Hazard family: Systemic cyber events (NHS-1 cyber.systemic-cyber)NRS-H60Hazard family: Supply-chain and flow disruption (NHS-1 sys.supply-chain)
Observation
- INFORM Risk Index (listed for reference)
- World Bank Open Data and World Development Indicators API (listed for reference)
- IMF data services (WEO, IFS, FSI via SDMX) (listed for reference)
- Direct economic loss attributed to disasters in relation to global GDP
- Macroeconomic Dashboard
Example geography
- Bangladesh: 134 hexagonal cells
- Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
- Surface water through cloud, 30 m (OPERA DSWx-S1 radar), NASA GIBS
- Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG), NASA GIBS
- Surface soil moisture (SMAP), NASA GIBS
The tools for transition analysis, and what they cannot settle.
| Method | Use | Limit |
|---|---|---|
| Computable general equilibrium models | Economy-wide effects of an energy or trade transition | Assume markets clear; weak on unemployment and finance |
| Input-output and employment multipliers | Jobs and output linked to an investment or a shock | Fixed coefficients; no price response |
| Impact evaluation (randomised and quasi-experimental) | Whether a programme changed outcomes | Results are local; external validity must be argued |
| Task-based exposure analysis | Which occupations’ tasks overlap with what automation or AI can do | Exposure is not displacement; adoption, regulation and new tasks decide outcomes |
The ILO Guidelines for a just transition (2015) frame the social side: social dialogue, social protection and skills policy as conditions for a transition that people can accept.
Evidence on opportunity and risk together, for ministries that decide.
GCRI studies economic structure, transitions and their distribution, and helps ministries test pathways. It makes no investment recommendation and does not lend or fund. Readiness work never substitutes for a financing decision. The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) takes up finance questions within its own boundaries. Field work sits with the Economic Development platform and the Future of Work and Skills platform.
Findings are designed for the Country Systems Risk and Resilience series and, for technology-driven change, the Exponential Technology series. Contributions that help: evaluations with null results, sub-national labour data, and evidence of how a past transition affected a region.
Evidence on opportunity and risk together.
- 01
Map the economic structure
Sectors, supply chains and dependencies, using economics and development economics and econometrics.
- 02
Test transition pathways
Scenarios for industrial, energy and digital transitions, with assumptions and uncertainty stated.
- 03
Evaluate what works
Programme effects measured with causal inference and impact evaluation, including when results are null.
- 04
Inform competent decisions
Options go to the ministries and institutions that decide. GCRI makes no investment recommendations.
Platforms, fields and counterparts.
Field work runs through the Economic Development platform and the Future of Work and Skills platform, and the economic development field gateway. The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) examines development finance under development readiness. See also industry, resources and trade and society and human development.
GCRI does not lend, invest or advise on transactions, and a readiness record is not a financing decision.
Where this page’s references lead.
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
- System of National Accounts 2025 (UN Statistical Commission, adopted 2025)
- ILO World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2025 (ILO, 2025)
- Gmyrek, Berg and Bescond, Generative AI and jobs: a global analysis of potential effects on job quantity and quality, ILO Working Paper 96 (ILO, 2023)
- ILO Guidelines for a just transition towards environmentally sustainable economies and societies for all (ILO, 2015)
- UN Comtrade database (UN Statistics Division)
- UNDP Human Development Report 2025, A matter of choice: people and possibilities in the age of AI (UNDP, 2025)
Questions and answers.
Does GCRI produce economic forecasts?
How does this relate to risk?
Can a ministry ask for a study?
Are development outcomes measured?
Does GCRI take a position on trade or industrial policy?
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