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GCRI · How Nexus works

Question

A question is ready for research when it names the decision it serves, the system boundary, the time horizon and the criteria a decision-maker will use to judge the answer.

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01Sequence

The order things happen in.

  1. 01QuestionNational, regional or institutional priority
  2. 02EvidenceSTEM foundation of the platform
  3. 03BuildFoundry
  4. 04OrganiseNexus ecosystem
  5. 05TestUniverse (independent site)
  6. 06PublishReports
  7. 07DecideCompetent authorities and institutions, through NXS-RLS (participants, agreements and handoffs)
  8. 08RenewCorrections and the next annual agenda
02Six pillars

This step runs in Universe.

Where a build is tested under controlled conditions with independent evaluators, so a method’s skill is measured, not assumed. Go to Universe.

Select pillars · hover lines16 / 18 handoffs

Route

Around Universe

The pillars Universe hands work to and receives it from.

L · F · U · S · R · A

Pillars
5 of 6
Handoffs
16 of 18
Loops
16 closed

Handoffs in play

  • F01Universe → Foundry · Admitted mission becomes a cycle project with a decision caseReadiness preparation
  • F02Foundry → Universe · Core Build Report and go or no-go evidenceControlled build
  • F03Foundry → Reports · Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profileCloseout
  • F04Universe → Reports · After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13After-action review

and 12 more

F01 to F14 are the recorded handoffs of the programme year, each with the artefact that moves and its phase; R1, R2, R3 and R4 carry work around the ring. A loop counts when every pillar on it is selected. Every pillar is led by the Nexus Consortium.
  1. LabsWhere questions become experiments and prototypes: new methods, data and tools are tried in the open, with their limits on record, before the Foundry builds them, under the Nexus Consortium.Labs at GCRI: Labs
  2. FoundryWhere methods, data and models become reproducible builds, each run with its inputs, version and limits on record.Foundry at GCRI: Foundry
  3. UniverseWhere a build is tested under controlled conditions with independent evaluators, so a method’s skill is measured, not assumed.Universe at GCRI: Universe technical officeuniverse.nexus
  4. Nexus StandardsWhere methods, identifiers and data schemas are codified in the open and corrected when a test finds a fault.Nexus Standards
  5. ReportsWhere findings are published with their method, uncertainty and evidence class, and corrected as new versions.Reports at GCRI: PublishReports
  6. Risk AcademyWhere methods and systems are taught on real data and real places, by working the case, on Risk Academy.Risk Academy
03Framing

From a priority to a researchable question.

National and institutional priorities arrive as broad concerns: water security in a drought-prone basin, the exposure of a grid to heat, the readiness of a health system for a novel pathogen. ISO 31000 calls the first move establishing the scope, context and criteria. In systemic work it also means drawing the system boundary wide enough to catch the dependencies that turn a local shock into a national one.

ElementQuestion it answersTypical failure if skipped
Decision servedWho will act on the answer, under which mandate?Research that no competent body can use
System boundaryWhich sectors and networks are inside the analysis?Cascades through excluded systems go unseen
HorizonSeasonal, decadal or end of century?Methods mismatched to the timescale
Risk criteriaWhat level of loss or disruption is tolerable, to whom?Results with no threshold to read against
Evidence barWhat would change the decision?Endless analysis without a stopping rule
04Process

How the process runs.

Process

Question: Exercise from design to lessons

An exercise needs objectives, qualified environments and independent evaluators; the Global Risks Forum (GRF) authorises controlled live operation, evidence is sealed and the review keeps dissent.

  1. 01 Design

    1. 01ObjectivesRecord · The Global Risks ForumIndependent evaluators assess each exercise against its stated objectives. Nothing simulated is reported as observed impact.
    2. 02Entry conditionsComponentThe week starts only with qualified environments, controllers, evaluators, a scenario plan and stop-work authority.
    3. 03Direction, control and evaluation kept apartComponent · The Global Risks ForumGRF holds direction and admission, and GCRI’s technical office runs the simulation environment. Evaluators did not design the scenario.

  2. 02 Conduct

    1. 04G4 · Controlled live operation authorisedGate · The Global Risks ForumGRF authorises controlled live operation for Action Week.
    2. 05Action Week: controlled exercisesExercise · UniverseTen exercise tracks run with independent evaluators and observation. None carries live actuation, incident command or warning authority.
    3. 06Exercise injects, finance track exampleStep · The Global Risks AllianceFinance and insurance readiness injects include a crossed parametric trigger or a wider sovereign spread. No transaction occurs.
    4. 07Run, decision and observation recordsRecordAction Week leaves run records, decision records, observation records and exercise assessments.

  3. 03 Close

    1. 08Stand-downStep · the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)New work stops and authorised jobs are checkpointed. Temporary access is revoked and temporary capacity is released.
    2. 09G5 · Evidence sealed and stand-down recordedGate · The Global Risks ForumThe evidence is sealed with its provenance and the stand-down is recorded. Unresolved exceptions are recorded with accountable owners.

  4. 04 Learn

    1. 10After-action reviewStep · UniverseUniverse reviews what worked, what failed and what was not tested, preserving dissent.
    2. 11Improvement items with ownersRecord · UniverseThe exercise exits with improvement items. Method and gap findings become change proposals, and corrective actions close in the next period.

Universe · The programme year · A national missionDesigned programme process, not a record of operation. No cycle has run and every programme is at service level R0. A gate is a programme decision, never a public-authority approval, certification or deployment authorisation. The one-day stand-down is still proposed.

05Where questions come from

Programmes, national formation and the annual agenda.

  • National questions come through government enquiries and the national formation model, where a country’s own bodies set the priority.
  • Cross-cutting questions are set in the annual cycle and the research programme.
  • Questions with a systemic angle are often first visible in the challenge areas: a hazard in one system with consequences in another.

A question can be declined. Reasons are recorded: no competent decision-holder, data that cannot be obtained lawfully, or a question that belongs to another body’s mandate.

06Across the institutions

Each pillar’s contribution.

07Next

Then: evidence.

Evidence: sTEM foundation of the platform

08Sources

Where this page’s references lead.

The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.

The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

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