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GCRIClimate and HazardsIn development
Research and evidence

Research and evidence

The research behind Climate and Hazards: the questions it asks, the methods it uses and how evidence is reviewed before it is published.

Open Methods and uncertainty Back to Climate and Hazards
Publisher
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation
Field
Climate and hazards, Disaster and crisis
  1. 01Draftsources cited, labels attached
  2. 02Evidence checkevery value traced
  3. 03Independent reviewconflicts declared
  4. 04Editionpublished with its limits
  5. 05Correctiona new version, never a silent edit
01In brief

The short answer.

Climate and Hazards research is the evidence work behind the platform: questions such as climate baselines and heat and drought, answered with climate and atmospheric science as well as Earth and geophysical science and reviewed before publication. Every result carries an evidence label, from observed to modelled or expert judgement, and missing data is shown as missing, never filled silently.

02Canvas

Draft to published version.

Canvas · draft to published versionDesign, not a record
Research and evidence: institutional oversight of researchCapacity and oversight only: proposals go to an institutional committee, reviewed under national rules, approved with conditions, supported by training, audited, and incidents are reported to the national body. Design of the process, not a record of a run.

Fig.How a finding is reviewed before it is published. Design, not a record.

03Geography

Climate signals in World.

For research and evidence, in GCRI's spatial-intelligence reading, the map opens on true-colour imagery and land cover, framed on World; 4 further NASA layers wait in the list.

The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.

Layers 2

Climate signals, for this page

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

For research and evidence, in GCRI's spatial-intelligence reading, the map opens on true-colour imagery and land cover, framed on World; 4 further NASA layers wait in the list.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · GDACS · Copernicus Sentinel-2 L2ASources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • GPM IMERG precipitation, NASA Precipitation Processing System; distributed by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • GHRSST Level 4 MUR analyses, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory; distributed by the NASA Physical Oceanography DAAC (PO.DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). ODbL
  • Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
  • Globe: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © MapLibre contributors.
  • Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not official warnings.
  • Live: GDACS (EC JRC / UN OCHA) Events are indicative, not official warnings.
  • Observed (EO): Copernicus Sentinel-2 L2A (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026), Microsoft Planetary Computer
  • Optional layers (24 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.

Layers and dates

  • True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
  • Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
  • Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026
  • Precipitation rate, daily mean: GPM IMERG, NASA GES DISC · 12 Oct 2026
  • Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
  • Sea surface temperature anomaly: GHRSST MUR25, NASA JPL PO.DAAC · 12 Oct 2026

04Questions

What the research asks.

  1. 01

    Climate baselines

    Historical trends and reference periods.

  2. 02

    Heat and drought

    Compound heat and hydrologic stress.

  3. 03

    Flood and storm

    Extreme precipitation, coastal storm and flooding.

  4. 04

    Wildfire and land

    Fire weather, fuels and landscapes.

  5. 05

    Earthquakes and geohazards

    Earthquakes, volcanoes and related hazards.

  6. 06

    Compound hazards

    Multiple and cascading events.

05Open questions

What hazard research cannot yet answer well enough for decisions.

Hazard science has to answer questions at the scales decisions are made: a city's heat, a basin's floods, a region's fire season, combined in the way they actually occur.

  • How should compound hazards (heat with drought, surge with rainfall) be represented in risk assessments? See compound hazards.
  • What reference period should baselines use when the climate is changing? See climate baselines.
  • How reliable are regional projections of extremes for planning decisions? See climate projections.
  • Where do wildfire regimes shift fastest, and why? See wildfire and land.
  • How should geophysical and climate hazards be combined in multi-hazard assessment? See earthquakes and geohazards.
06Evidence

Every result keeps its label.

Results are labelled as observed, officially reported, estimated, modelled, forecast, scenario or expert judgement. Missing data is shown as missing, never filled silently.

Methods

Methods and uncertainty

How results are produced and where they stop

Sources

Source and data register

Where data comes from and on what terms

Publications

Reviewed outputs

Citable work with its editorial status

07Key terms

Terms used on this page.

Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.

TermDefinition
Research integrityConduct of research in line with principles of reliability, honesty, respect and accountability, as the European Code of Conduct for Research Integrity sets them out.
Evidence labelA tag on an assertion naming the kind of evidence behind it, such as observed, officially reported or modelled.
ReproducibilityObtaining consistent results using the same data and analysis code as the original study.
HeatwaveA period of abnormally hot weather relative to local conditions, defined by a threshold and minimum duration.
08Sources

Where this page's references lead.

The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.

09Pages

Pages in Research and evidence.

Page

Methods and uncertainty

Page

Source and data register

10Questions

Questions and answers.

Can I propose a research question?
Yes. Write to contact@therisk.global with the question, the context and who would use the answer. A proposal receives a reference; it does not commit the platform to the work.
Related

Around Climate and Hazards.

Climate and Hazards

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