GCRI · Climate and Hazards
Earthquakes and geohazards
Earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, landslides and subsidence arise from the solid Earth and give little or no warning. Their timing cannot be predicted, but where and how strongly they can occur can be assessed and built for. This page sets out how geohazards arise, how hazard is estimated probabilistically, and what evidence serves the agencies that set building codes, plan land use and monitor active systems.
Earthquakes and geohazards on the record.
Earthquakes and geohazards: how the risk develops.
Earthquakes, volcanoes and related hazards. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.
Faults store and release strain
Tectonic plates move steadily, and faults lock until stress exceeds their strength. The sudden slip radiates seismic waves whose shaking depends on magnitude, distance, depth and local ground.
Ground conditions amplify shaking
Soft sediments amplify and lengthen shaking, and loose saturated soils can liquefy. Two buildings at the same distance from an earthquake can experience very different motion.
Tsunamis follow seafloor movement
Earthquakes, submarine landslides and volcanic collapses displace water, sending waves across ocean basins. Near-source coasts may have only minutes before arrival.
Triggers set off secondary hazards
Strong shaking and heavy rain trigger landslides, which can dam rivers and later release floods. Volcanic ash disrupts aviation and agriculture far from the vent.
Hazards now worldwide.
Population density, night lights and land cover across the world, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 3
Hazards now, for this page
About this layer
- Evidence
- Estimated
- Source
- Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University))
- Provider
- NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University)
- Licence
- CC BY 4.0
- Vintage
- null; Census-based estimate, static (2020)
- Resolution
- about 1 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Census-based estimate of people per square kilometre in 2020, shown as exposure context; not a count of people affected by any hazard.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed
- Source
- VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2) (NASA LAADS DAAC)
- Provider
- NASA LAADS DAAC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite radiance, corrected for moonlight and atmosphere
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-12
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite night-time radiance for the date shown; lights are a proxy for electricity use and outages, not a measurement of supply or access.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (clouds leave gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS Global Flood Product (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-14
- Resolution
- about 250 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite image
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-14
- Resolution
- about 250 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite image. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Modelled (latest year GIBS publishes)
- Source
- MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1) (NASA LP DAAC)
- Provider
- NASA LP DAAC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- yearly; Satellite classification; latest year GIBS publishes
- Newest at build
- 2024-01-01
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite land cover classes for the year shown, including croplands; a classification with known errors, not a farm register.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (clouds leave gaps)
- Source
- MODIS Terra EVI (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite index; clouds leave gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-13
- Resolution
- about 250 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite vegetation index for the 8 days to the date shown, a habitat condition indicator; not a measure of species or biodiversity.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
Keyboard, with the map focused
Hold Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll to zoom
Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
Loading the latest NASA imagery.
Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
Hazards now, framed on the world.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · U.S. Geological Survey · NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERTSources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
- Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Live: U.S. Geological Survey Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Observed (EO): NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- River discharge forecast, 30 days with range (GloFAS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Emergency Management Service information 2026; not a flood warning.
- Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
- Optional layers (20 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
- Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
- Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
- True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
- Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
- Enhanced vegetation index, rolling 8 days: MODIS Terra EVI, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
Earthquakes strike lifelines first.
- WaterCouplingPipe breaks and treatment damage cut supply when it is most needed.What to watchPipe material and seismic design
- EnergyCouplingSubstation equipment is among the most fragile assets in earthquakes.What to watchSubstation fragility
- HealthCouplingHospitals must stay functional; the Hospital Safety Index assesses whether they can.What to watchHospital structural safety
Seismic risk analyses are designed for the Country Systems Risk and Resilience series. Hazard and risk maps of the Global Earthquake Model Foundation and USGS ShakeMap and PAGER are the main open references; earthquakes cannot be predicted, and the page presents probabilities, not dates.
- Building inventory and structural data for exposure models.
- Post-event damage surveys.
Flood and storm hazard modeller.
The screen a team would use to follow this subject: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.
Flood and storm hazard modeller
Earthquakes and geohazards · River delta · Return period set
Flood depth by return period
hydraulic model · illustrative
Scenario set
| 1-in-10 | 14 | 0.9 |
| 1-in-100 | 37 | 1.4 |
| 1-in-1000 | 63 | 2.1 |
Validation against observed flood
What is measured, and how well.
Each indicator carries its unit, its cadence, the kind of source behind it and the evidence label a value would carry. No values are shown: a programme supplies them under its own authority.
| Indicator | Unit | Cadence | Source type | Label |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earthquake magnitude | moment magnitude | per event | Seismic network catalogues | OBSERVED |
| Peak ground acceleration | fraction of gravity | per event | Strong-motion stations and ShakeMap estimates | OBSERVED |
| Macroseismic intensity | intensity scale level | per event | Felt reports and intensity models | ESTIMATED |
| Seismic hazard at a return period | peak ground acceleration with a stated exceedance probability | per model release | Probabilistic seismic hazard models | MODELLED |
| Landslide susceptibility | susceptibility class | per assessment | Susceptibility models | MODELLED |
| Ground deformation rate | millimetres per year | per acquisition series | Satellite radar interferometry | OBSERVED |
| Volcanic alert level | alert level on the observatory’s scale | as issued | Volcano observatories | Published statistics |
Hazard to loss: the exceedance curve.
How often a given loss is exceeded, from a Gumbel hazard, a lognormal fragility and a protection standard; the area under the curve is the average annual loss. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction.
Controls
- Typical annual peak ground acceleration (location)
- 0.04 g peak ground acceleration
- Spread of extremes (scale)
- 0.05 g peak ground acceleration
- Intensity at which half the value is lost
- 0.45 g peak ground acceleration
- Dispersion of vulnerability
- 0.60
- Share of value in the hazard footprint
- 40%
- Protection standard (return period)
- 50 years
Readouts
- Average annual loss
- 0.18% of value
- Loss at 1 in 100 years
- 7.9% of value
- Loss at 1 in 250 years
- 11.1% of value
- Intensity at 1 in 100 years
- 0.27 g peak ground acceleration
Numbers, methods and sources
| Return period (years) | Intensity (g peak ground acceleration) | Loss (% of value) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.02 | 0.00 |
| 2 | 0.06 | 0.00 |
| 4 | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| 7 | 0.13 | 0.00 |
| 13 | 0.17 | 0.00 |
| 24 | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| 44 | 0.23 | 0.00 |
| 82 | 0.26 | 7.23 |
| 154 | 0.29 | 9.40 |
| 287 | 0.32 | 11.60 |
| 536 | 0.35 | 13.79 |
| 1,000 | 0.39 | 15.92 |
Methods
- Gumbel extreme-value hazard Gumbel (1958), Statistics of Extremes, Columbia University Press
- Lognormal fragility (vulnerability) FEMA (2003), HAZUS-MH Technical Manual
- Exceedance-probability curve and average annual loss Grossi and Kunreuther (2005), Catastrophe Modeling, Springer
- Levee effect Di Baldassarre and others (2013), Socio-hydrology, HESS 17
- Uncertainty fan (parameter Monte Carlo) Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333
- One-at-a-time sensitivity (tornado) Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley
Data
The model runs on the teaching values set by the controls. To calibrate it for a place, read it against these admitted layers and series, which this page’s map can draw:
- Rivers Natural Earth
- Urban extents Natural Earth
- Cities Natural Earth
- Earthquakes M4.5+, past week (USGS) U.S. Geological Survey · register usgs.earthquake.summary-feeds
- Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG) NASA GPM IMERG Early · register nasa.gibs.context-live-layers
- River discharge forecast, 30 days with range (GloFAS via Open-Meteo) Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0), Copernicus GloFAS · register open-meteo.public-pages
- Built-up and settlement extent, 2010 (HBASE, Landsat) CIESIN/Columbia, NASA SEDAC HBASE · register sedac.context-urban-layers
Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium
- Experiments Labs
- Built in Climate and Hazards in Foundry
- Tested at Climate and Hazards in Universe
- Codified in Climate and Earth Systems in Standards
- Published in Climate and Hazards in Reports
- Taught in Faculty of Earth and Environmental Sciences in Academy
Where the evidence comes from.
Named public datasets and institutional records, each with its licence class. Sources by agreement are used only under their terms and never republished.
| Source | What it gives | Licence class |
|---|---|---|
| USGS ANSS Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog (ComCat) | Global earthquake locations, magnitudes and ShakeMaps | Public domain, US government data |
| International Seismological Centre Bulletin | Reviewed global earthquake parameters | Free with citation, ISC terms (to check) |
| Global Earthquake Model (GEM) global hazard and risk maps | Probabilistic seismic hazard and risk mosaics | CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 for the public maps (to check) |
| Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program | Volcano and eruption records | Free with citation, terms to check |
| NASA Global Landslide Catalog | Rainfall-triggered landslide events | Open, NASA data policy |
| NOAA NCEI Global Historical Tsunami Database | Tsunami events and run-up observations | Public domain, US government data |
| Copernicus Sentinel-1 radar data | Inputs for ground deformation and landslide monitoring | Free and open, Copernicus terms |
Model earthquakes and geohazards as a system. Run the cascade.
Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile Climate risk standards: the hazards it names, the systems and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Choose the components, pick an initiating hazard and step through the cascade. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every coupling weight is a stated assumption you can change. A teaching model, not a forecast, an assessment or a certification. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.
Hazards
- Sea-level rise
- Coastal flood (set off downstream)
- Storm surge (set off downstream)
- High-tide flooding (set off downstream)
- Coastal erosion (set off downstream)
- Saltwater intrusion (set off downstream)
- Estuary flood (set off downstream)
- Coastal habitat squeeze (set off downstream)
- Wetland loss (set off downstream)
- Mangrove loss (set off downstream)
- Groundwater flood (set off downstream)
- Climate-driven migration and relocation (set off downstream)
- Mass displacement (set off downstream)
Systems and couplings
Controls
NS-0Constitution and principlesNS-1The UNI and the artefact catalogue (grammar v0.2: domain, sector, region and environment segments)NS-3Risk record UNIs (grammar, legacy crosswalk, allocation authority)NS-3bDataset and product metadata profile (STAC, DCAT, PROV-O)NS-9Contextual UNIs (deployments, instances, programme instances)NS-11Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)NS-14Conformance and crosswalk to external standardsNRS-H65Hazard family: Planetary boundary transgressions (NHS-1 planet.boundary)NRS-H62Hazard family: Compound and multi-hazard events (NHS-1 sys.compound)NRS-H71Hazard family: Deep-time and cosmic catastrophes (NHS-1 planet.deep-time)NRS-H79Hazard family: Mental health crises (NHS-1 health.mental)NRS-H75Hazard family: Climate-sensitive illness (NHS-1 health.climate-sensitive)NRS-H7Hazard family: Large-scale circulation anomalies (NHS-1 atmo.climate-mode)
Observation
- ERA5 reanalysis (Copernicus Climate Data Store) (listed for reference)
- CMIP6 climate projections (Copernicus Climate Data Store) (listed for reference)
- NGFS Scenario Explorer (listed for reference)
- INFORM Risk Index (listed for reference)
- Number of deaths, missing persons and directly affected persons attributed to disasters per 100,000 population
- Total greenhouse gas emissions per year
- Direct economic loss attributed to disasters in relation to global GDP
Example geography
- Pacific Island states: 150 hexagonal cells
- Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
- Surface water through cloud, 30 m (OPERA DSWx-S1 radar), NASA GIBS
- Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG), NASA GIBS
- Vegetation disturbance alerts, 30 m (OPERA DIST-ALERT), NASA GIBS
Who decides, and what the evidence serves.
Climate and Hazards prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.
| Who decides | The question | Evidence this page serves |
|---|---|---|
| Building code committees | Which seismic design values apply in each zone | Hazard models with exceedance probabilities and site effects |
| Geological surveys and volcano observatories | Which areas need monitoring, mapping or alert changes | Deformation evidence; catalogues; susceptibility maps |
| Spatial planning authorities | Where to restrict building on unstable or liquefiable ground | Susceptibility and site condition evidence |
| Tsunami warning centres and coastal authorities | Which coasts need evacuation routes and signs | Tsunami history and inundation scenarios |
Outputs this topic produces
- Hazard model comparisons for a region, with the source of each model stated
- Event reconstructions combining seismic, intensity and satellite evidence
- Secondary hazard notes on landslides, liquefaction and tsunami
- Ground deformation analyses from radar time series
How earthquakes and geohazards is modelled, measured and tested.
The model, its assumptions, its data and its uncertainty, in the form a scientist or engineer would check. Structures follow published methods. The values drawn are illustrative, not findings.
Uncertainty bands
How far the outlook for earthquakes and geohazards could spread, shown as ranges rather than a single line.
- Central estimate
- median of the ensemble
- Ranges
- likely and very likely, in IPCC calibrated language
- Ensemble
- members, scenarios and initial conditions stated
- Read with
- the sensitivity of the result to each input
What experts ask.
Geohazard questions are about where, how big and with what effects.
- Which faults are active, and what magnitudes can they produce?
- How strongly will the ground shake at a site, given local soils and geology?
- Which volcanoes are restless, and what eruption styles and hazards are possible?
- Where can landslides occur, and what triggers them?
- How quickly can a tsunami reach a coastline after an offshore earthquake or landslide?
Mechanisms and drivers.
Earthquakes release strain accumulated as tectonic plates move. The energy radiates as seismic waves whose effect at the surface depends on distance, depth and local ground conditions; soft sediments can amplify shaking and saturated soils can liquefy. Large earthquakes are followed by aftershocks, and some trigger landslides and tsunamis.
Volcanic hazards include ash fall, pyroclastic flows, lava, gases and mudflows called lahars, which can travel far down valleys. Landslides occur when slopes fail under gravity, often triggered by heavy rain, earthquakes, snowmelt or human changes to slopes; their rainfall triggers link them to climate. Tsunamis travel across ocean basins at high speed, so warning time depends on distance from the source.
How it is studied, and where the methods stop.
| Method or data | What it shows | Limits |
|---|---|---|
| Seismic networks and catalogues | Where and how often earthquakes occur | Catalogues are short relative to large-earthquake recurrence |
| Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis | The likelihood of exceeding given ground-shaking levels | Depends on fault models and ground-motion models with large uncertainty |
| Geodesy, including satellite radar and positioning | Ground deformation and strain accumulation | Shows strain, not when it will be released |
| Volcano monitoring | Seismicity, gas and deformation signalling unrest | Unrest does not always lead to eruption |
| Landslide susceptibility mapping | Where slopes are prone to fail | Timing remains hard to predict |
How it is studied, and what the methods cannot say.
- 01Earth and geophysical scienceSeismic source characterisation · Ground deformation monitoring · Site condition mappingApplied here
- 02Extreme value theory and tail riskReturn level estimation · Non-stationary extremes · Regional frequency analysisApplied here
- 03Spatial statistics and geostatisticsInterpolating station data · Merging satellite and gauge data · Spatial clustering of eventsApplied here
- 04Earth observation and remote sensingFlood extent mapping · Vegetation and drought monitoring · Active fire and burned areaApplied here
- 05Space systems and satellite servicesObservation continuity planning · Satellite communications for warningsApplied here
Where this page’s references lead.
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
Questions and answers.
Can earthquakes be predicted?
What is probabilistic seismic hazard analysis?
What is the difference between magnitude and intensity?
Why do buildings fail in some places and not others during the same earthquake?
Does the platform set volcano alert levels?
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