The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
The methods Climate and Hazards relies on, the assumptions they carry and the limits of what they can show.
Methods and uncertainty · Review wave 2
0 low to 100 high
Higher is more certain. Values are placeholders.
Climate and Hazards · Evidence gradingEvidence grading, in outline: domain structure with placeholder names and illustrative values, not a record.
The Climate and Hazards methods page sets out the methods the platform relies on, among them climate and atmospheric science, Earth and geophysical science, and forecasting and time-series analysis, with their assumptions, validation and limits. Each analysis lists its assumptions and data, reports ranges and confidence beside central estimates, is checked against observations or other models, and states what it cannot show.
Fig.How a finding is reviewed before it is published. Design, not a record.
For methods and uncertainty, in GCRI's spatial-intelligence reading, the map opens on true-colour imagery and land cover, framed on World; 4 further NASA layers wait in the list.
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Layers 2
Climate signals, for this page
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NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
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For methods and uncertainty, in GCRI's spatial-intelligence reading, the map opens on true-colour imagery and land cover, framed on World; 4 further NASA layers wait in the list.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.
Layers and dates
| Source | Why it matters here | How it is reported |
|---|---|---|
| Emission pathway | Dominates late-century change | Results by scenario, never averaged across scenarios |
| Model structure | Dominant for regional precipitation and extremes | Multi-model ensembles with spread |
| Internal variability | Dominant for the next decades locally | Large ensembles |
| Observational baseline | Station density and reanalysis bias | Comparison of products |
| Rare-event statistics | Short records for extremes | Confidence intervals on return levels |
Projections carry IPCC calibrated language where they draw on assessed findings.
Each analysis lists its assumptions and the data it depends on.
Ranges and confidence are reported alongside central estimates.
Models are checked against observations and, where possible, against other models.
What an analysis cannot show is stated beside what it can.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Uncertainty quantification | Characterising and propagating the uncertainties in a model to state confidence in its outputs. |
| Sensitivity analysis | Repeating an analysis under different assumptions to show how much the result depends on them. |
| Model validation | Comparing model predictions with independent observations to judge fitness for a stated use. |
| Climate and atmospheric science | Climate science studies the physical processes that govern the atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere and land surface over seasons to centuries. |
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.