GCRI · Climate and Hazards
Wildfire and land
Wildfire needs fuel, dry weather and ignition. Climate change lengthens fire seasons and dries fuels, while land use, fire suppression and settlement at the forest edge change what burns and who is exposed. This page sets out how fire regimes form and shift, how fire danger and burned area are measured, and what evidence serves the agencies that manage land, fire and smoke.
Wildfire and land on the record.
Wildfire and land: how the risk develops.
Fire weather, fuels and landscapes. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.
Weather dries the fuel
Heat, low humidity, wind and lack of rain dry vegetation. Fire danger rating systems track this drying in fuel layers of different depth, from fine litter to deep organic soil.
Fuel builds up or disappears
Vegetation growth, past fires, grazing, fire suppression and land abandonment change how much fuel is available and how continuous it is across a landscape.
People ignite and are exposed
Most ignitions in many regions are human, from land clearing, machinery, power lines or arson. Expansion of homes into wildland raises both ignitions and exposure.
Fires reach far beyond the perimeter
Smoke harms health across regions, burned slopes erode and flood, water supplies are contaminated, and power lines are cut or deliberately de-energised to prevent ignition.
Climate signals worldwide.
Active fires, daytime surface heat and rain across the world, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 3
Climate signals, for this page
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (clouds and overpass timing leave gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS) (NASA LANCE FIRMS)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE FIRMS
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite detection; clouds and overpass timing leave gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-13
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite hot-spot detections for the day shown, including gas flares and industrial heat; not a confirmed fire, an incident report or a warning.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (persistent cloud still leaves gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- 8-day; Satellite 8-day composite; persistent cloud still leaves gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-09-14
- Resolution
- about 1 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite skin temperature of the ground over the 8 days ending on the date shown, a heat exposure indicator; not air temperature, heat index or a heat warning.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Estimated
- Source
- GPM IMERG (NASA GES DISC)
- Provider
- NASA GES DISC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite estimate, near real time
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-12
- Resolution
- about 2 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite estimate, near real time. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite image
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-14
- Resolution
- about 250 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite image. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Modelled (latest year GIBS publishes)
- Source
- MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1) (NASA LP DAAC)
- Provider
- NASA LP DAAC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- yearly; Satellite classification; latest year GIBS publishes
- Newest at build
- 2024-01-01
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite land cover classes for the year shown, including croplands; a classification with known errors, not a farm register.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed
- Source
- GHRSST MUR25 (NASA JPL PO.DAAC)
- Provider
- NASA JPL PO.DAAC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite analysis
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-12
- Resolution
- about 2 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite analysis of how far sea temperature departs from its usual value for the date shown; a marine heat indicator, not a coral bleaching alert.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
Keyboard, with the map focused
Hold Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll to zoom
Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
Loading the latest NASA imagery.
Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
Climate signals, framed on the world.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERTSources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- GPM IMERG precipitation, NASA Precipitation Processing System; distributed by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- GHRSST Level 4 MUR analyses, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory; distributed by the NASA Physical Oceanography DAAC (PO.DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
- Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Observed (EO): NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- Air quality forecast, 5 days, PM2.5 (CAMS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service information 2026.
- Past year, daily temperature (ERA5 via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026.
- Past year, daily temperature and sunshine (NASA POWER): These data were obtained from the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) POWER Project funded through the NASA Earth Science/Applied Science Program..
- Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
- Optional layers (22 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Active fires and thermal anomalies: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
- Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026
- Precipitation rate, daily mean: GPM IMERG, NASA GES DISC · 12 Oct 2026
- True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
- Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
- Sea surface temperature anomaly: GHRSST MUR25, NASA JPL PO.DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
Wildfire links land, air and power systems.
- BiodiversityCouplingFire regimes are shifting with heat, drought and land use.What to watchBurned area against the historical range
- HealthCouplingSmoke carries fine particulates far from the fire.What to watchSmoke exposure days
- EnergyCouplingPower lines can ignite fires, and fire-weather shutoffs cut supply.What to watchShutoff events and ignitions
Wildfire analyses are designed for the Observatory Signal series. UNEP’s report of 2022 on extraordinary landscape fires sets the global context; burned area and fire danger come from satellite and national systems.
- Fire perimeter and ignition records.
- Smoke health studies with exposure data.
Model wildfire and land as a system. Run the cascade.
Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile Climate risk standards: the hazards it names, the systems and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Choose the components, pick an initiating hazard and step through the cascade. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every coupling weight is a stated assumption you can change. A teaching model, not a forecast, an assessment or a certification. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.
Hazards
- Sea-level rise
- Coastal flood (set off downstream)
- Storm surge (set off downstream)
- High-tide flooding (set off downstream)
- Coastal erosion (set off downstream)
- Saltwater intrusion (set off downstream)
- Estuary flood (set off downstream)
- Coastal habitat squeeze (set off downstream)
- Wetland loss (set off downstream)
- Mangrove loss (set off downstream)
- Groundwater flood (set off downstream)
- Climate-driven migration and relocation (set off downstream)
- Mass displacement (set off downstream)
Systems and couplings
Controls
NS-0Constitution and principlesNS-1The UNI and the artefact catalogue (grammar v0.2: domain, sector, region and environment segments)NS-3Risk record UNIs (grammar, legacy crosswalk, allocation authority)NS-3bDataset and product metadata profile (STAC, DCAT, PROV-O)NS-9Contextual UNIs (deployments, instances, programme instances)NS-11Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)NS-14Conformance and crosswalk to external standardsNRS-H65Hazard family: Planetary boundary transgressions (NHS-1 planet.boundary)NRS-H62Hazard family: Compound and multi-hazard events (NHS-1 sys.compound)NRS-H71Hazard family: Deep-time and cosmic catastrophes (NHS-1 planet.deep-time)NRS-H79Hazard family: Mental health crises (NHS-1 health.mental)NRS-H75Hazard family: Climate-sensitive illness (NHS-1 health.climate-sensitive)NRS-H7Hazard family: Large-scale circulation anomalies (NHS-1 atmo.climate-mode)
Observation
- ERA5 reanalysis (Copernicus Climate Data Store) (listed for reference)
- CMIP6 climate projections (Copernicus Climate Data Store) (listed for reference)
- NGFS Scenario Explorer (listed for reference)
- INFORM Risk Index (listed for reference)
- Number of deaths, missing persons and directly affected persons attributed to disasters per 100,000 population
- Total greenhouse gas emissions per year
- Direct economic loss attributed to disasters in relation to global GDP
Example geography
- Pacific Island states: 150 hexagonal cells
- Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
- Surface water through cloud, 30 m (OPERA DSWx-S1 radar), NASA GIBS
- Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG), NASA GIBS
- Vegetation disturbance alerts, 30 m (OPERA DIST-ALERT), NASA GIBS
What is measured, and how well.
Each indicator carries its unit, its cadence, the kind of source behind it and the evidence label a value would carry. No values are shown: a programme supplies them under its own authority.
| Indicator | Unit | Cadence | Source type | Label |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Weather Index | dimensionless index | daily | Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System computed from weather data | MODELLED |
| Active fire detections | count of detections | daily | Satellite thermal anomaly products | OBSERVED |
| Burned area | hectares | monthly and annual | Satellite burned area products | OBSERVED |
| Fire radiative power | megawatts | per detection | Satellite thermal sensors | OBSERVED |
| Fire season length | days above a fire danger threshold | annual | Fire danger reanalysis | MODELLED |
| Population at the wildland-urban interface | people | per assessment | Settlement and land-cover data | ESTIMATED |
| Smoke fine particulate exposure | micrograms per cubic metre | daily | Air quality monitors and atmospheric models | MODELLED |
How wildfire and land is modelled, measured and tested.
The model, its assumptions, its data and its uncertainty, in the form a scientist or engineer would check. Structures follow published methods. The values drawn are illustrative, not findings.
Uncertainty bands
How far the outlook for wildfire and land could spread, shown as ranges rather than a single line.
- Central estimate
- median of the ensemble
- Ranges
- likely and very likely, in IPCC calibrated language
- Ensemble
- members, scenarios and initial conditions stated
- Read with
- the sensitivity of the result to each input
Where the evidence comes from.
Named public datasets and institutional records, each with its licence class. Sources by agreement are used only under their terms and never republished.
| Source | What it gives | Licence class |
|---|---|---|
| NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) | Near-real-time active fire detections from MODIS and VIIRS | Open, NASA data policy |
| European Forest Fire Information System and Global Wildfire Information System (Copernicus, JRC) | Fire danger forecasts and burned area mapping | Free, Copernicus and JRC terms |
| MODIS burned area product (MCD64A1) | Global monthly burned area | Open, NASA data policy |
| Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service global fire assimilation system | Fire emissions and smoke forecasts | Free, Copernicus terms |
| Copernicus fire danger indices historical data | Reanalysis of fire weather indices | Free and open with attribution, Copernicus licence (to check current terms) |
| National fire incident databases | Ignition causes, perimeters and suppression records | Licence per agency |
Who decides, and what the evidence serves.
Climate and Hazards prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.
| Who decides | The question | Evidence this page serves |
|---|---|---|
| Forest and fire management agencies | Where and when to conduct prescribed burning and fuel treatment | Fire weather climatologies; fuel and burned area history |
| Spatial planning and building authorities | Which areas need building standards or limits for wildfire | Interface exposure maps; fire regime evidence |
| Public health agencies | When to advise on smoke exposure | Smoke forecasts and monitor data |
| Electricity utilities and regulators | When power line de-energisation is justified to prevent ignition | Fire weather forecasts and asset exposure |
Outputs this topic produces
- Fire weather climatologies and trends, with the reference period stated
- Burned area and fire regime analyses by land cover
- Wildland-urban interface exposure maps
- Post-fire cascade notes covering erosion, water and smoke
What experts ask.
Fire questions combine weather, vegetation and people.
- How are fire-weather conditions, such as heat, low humidity and wind, changing in frequency and season length?
- How dry and how continuous are fuels across a landscape?
- Where do settlements and infrastructure meet flammable vegetation?
- How do fire regimes differ between ecosystems, and which fires are ecologically normal?
- What happens after fire, from smoke exposure to erosion and water contamination?
Mechanisms and drivers.
Hot, dry and windy weather dries fuels and drives fire spread. As temperatures rise, evaporative demand increases and fuels dry faster, lengthening fire seasons in many regions. Extreme fires can create their own weather, generating strong winds and lofting embers far ahead of the front.
Fuel load and structure depend on vegetation type, past fire, grazing, forestry and land abandonment. Fire is a natural and necessary process in many ecosystems, and long suppression can allow fuels to accumulate. Most damage to buildings comes from embers igniting materials near or on structures, which is why the area where homes meet vegetation is central to risk.
How it is studied, and where the methods stop.
| Method or data | What it shows | Limits |
|---|---|---|
| Fire-weather indices | How weather conditions favour ignition and spread | Describe potential, not whether fire will occur |
| Satellite active-fire and burned-area products | Where and when fires burn | Small or understorey fires can be missed |
| Fuel mapping | Fuel type, load and continuity | Changes quickly and is hard to map at fine scale |
| Fire spread and behaviour models | How a fire may move under given conditions | Sensitive to wind and fuel inputs |
| Fire history and paleo records | Long-term fire regimes | Local and incomplete, with dating uncertainty |
How it is studied, and what the methods cannot say.
- 01Earth observation and remote sensingFlood extent mapping · Vegetation and drought monitoring · Active fire and burned areaApplied here
- 02Climate and atmospheric scienceDetection and attribution of change · Extreme event attribution · Process-based model evaluationApplied here
- 03Spatial statistics and geostatisticsInterpolating station data · Merging satellite and gauge data · Spatial clustering of eventsApplied here
- 04Forecasting and time-series analysisEnsemble forecast interpretation · Seasonal outlook use · Forecast verificationApplied here
- 05Extreme value theory and tail riskReturn level estimation · Non-stationary extremes · Regional frequency analysisApplied here
Where this page’s references lead.
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
Questions and answers.
What is the Fire Weather Index?
Is climate change causing more wildfires?
What is the wildland-urban interface?
Is all wildfire harmful?
Does a high fire-danger rating mean a fire will happen?
Does the platform issue fire danger ratings?
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