The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
The methods Food Nexus relies on, the assumptions they carry and the limits of what they can show.
Fig.How a finding is reviewed before it is published. Design, not a record.
The Food Nexus methods page sets out the methods the platform relies on, among them agricultural, soil and food science, ecology and biodiversity science, and Earth observation and remote sensing, with their assumptions, validation and limits. Each analysis lists its assumptions and data, reports ranges and confidence beside central estimates, is checked against observations or other models, and states what it cannot show.
Plains, deltas and basins, the corridors that carry food to ports, and how far each division sits from one, shown for Argentina as an example geography for this subject.
| Source | Why it matters here | How it is reported |
|---|---|---|
| Crop model structure | Models diverge most under heat stress and in their response to carbon dioxide | Multi-model ensembles following AgMIP protocols |
| Production statistics | Smallholder output and subsistence production are estimated, not measured | Evidence label on each figure; survey basis stated |
| Stocks | Many countries do not publish public or private stock levels | Ranges and stated assumptions in stocks-to-use ratios |
| Price transmission | Depends on policy, exchange rates and market integration that change quickly | Scenario sets rather than single elasticities |
| Household access | Food security outcomes rest on surveys with long gaps | IPC consensus process and its confidence levels |
An acute food insecurity figure is never shown without its classification system, the analysis period and whether it is a current estimate or a projection.
Each analysis lists its assumptions and the data it depends on.
Ranges and confidence are reported alongside central estimates.
Models are checked against observations and, where possible, against other models.
What an analysis cannot show is stated beside what it can.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Uncertainty quantification | Characterising and propagating the uncertainties in a model to state confidence in its outputs. |
| Sensitivity analysis | Repeating an analysis under different assumptions to show how much the result depends on them. |
| Model validation | Comparing model predictions with independent observations to judge fitness for a stated use. |
| Agricultural, soil and food science | Agricultural science studies crop and livestock production, soil processes and food systems. |
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.