Price transmission and market integration
Cointegration and error-correction models estimate how far and how fast world price changes reach local markets, and how exchange rates and policy alter the pass-through.
GCRI · Food Nexus
Econometrics of food prices
Econometrics estimates how food prices, incomes, trade and policies respond to shocks. It measures price transmission from world to local markets, the effects of export restrictions and input subsidies, and how weather and conflict shocks pass into household consumption and nutrition.
01Register
Econometrics of food prices on the record.
Method recordSTEM method
- MethodEconometrics
- StewardEconomic Development
- Applied inFood Nexus
- Data4 inputs
- Checks3 validation steps
- Canonical pageSTEM Commons
02Application
What econometrics does here.
Econometrics applies statistical methods to economic data to estimate relationships, test theories and forecast. It provides empirical evidence on how shocks and policies affect economic outcomes. In food and agriculture, trade, resources and supply chains and climate and hazards, econometric evidence estimates how disasters, pandemics and financial shocks affect output, employment and prices. It informs the economic case for risk reduction. The canonical description is on the STEM Commons.
Effects of trade policy
Panel and gravity models estimate how export restrictions, tariffs and non-tariff measures change trade flows and prices, separating policy effects from harvest effects.
Household welfare responses to shocks
Panel surveys linked to weather and price shocks estimate how consumption, diets and assets change, and which groups lose most.
03Sector signature
The sector signature of econometrics of food prices.
The sectors econometrics of food prices touches and how strongly they depend on each other: what a study has to observe and model together.
Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations
Signature
Food and its partners
Food gives nutrition to health (0.7), land conversion to biodiversity (0.6) and withdrawals and runoff to water (0.3).
W · E · I · F · H · B
- Sectors
- 4 of 6
- Relations
- 6 of 15
- Coupling
- 0.46 share of total
Strongest relations in play
- Food → Biodiversity · land conversion0.6
- Water → Food · irrigation0.8
- Water → Biodiversity · environmental flows0.6
- Food → Health · nutrition0.7
04Data
What the method consumes.
Datasets and records used by econometrics on this platform, with the role each plays and the label its values carry. Sources are listed in the source register.
| Data | Role | Label |
|---|---|---|
| Market price series | Price transmission | Published statistics |
| Bilateral trade flows | Trade policy effects | Published statistics |
| Household panel surveys (World Bank LSMS-ISA) | Welfare responses | OBSERVED |
| Trade policy trackers | Policy variables | REPORTED |
05Methods and evidence
How econometrics of food prices is modelled, measured and tested.
The model, its assumptions, its data and its uncertainty, in the form a scientist or engineer would check. Structures follow published methods. The values drawn are illustrative, not findings.
System model
The couplings between the systems in econometrics of food prices: signs of influence, a reinforcing and a balancing loop, and cross-links where stress jumps.
FAIR guiding principles · GO FAIR and FORCE11W3C PROV · World Wide Web ConsortiumGuidance on consistent treatment of uncertainties · IPCCCEOS Analysis Ready Data · Committee on Earth Observation Satellites
06Validation
How results are checked.
Models are assessed through specification tests, robustness checks and out-of-sample performance. Results are compared across datasets and methods.
| Check | How it is done |
|---|---|
| Identification review | Each causal claim states its identification strategy and the threats to it |
| Robustness across specifications | Results are re-estimated with alternative samples, controls and models |
| Out-of-sample checks | Transmission estimates are tested on later periods, including crises |
Endogeneity, measurement error and structural change can bias estimates. Relationships may shift under extreme conditions.
07Process
How the process runs.
Process
Econometrics of food prices: PRISMA 2020 review reporting
PRISMA 2020 is a reporting guideline for systematic reviews; the steps follow its checklist, not a mandated sequence, and no Nexus document adopts it.
01 Plan
- 01Registration and protocolRecord · The review teamThe guideline asks for registration details, access to the protocol and any amendments.
- 02Eligibility criteriaRecord · The review teamThe guideline asks for the inclusion and exclusion criteria and how studies were grouped.
02 Find and select
- 03Search: sources and strategiesStep · The review teamThe guideline asks for the information sources and the full search strategies. It does not fix which sources are used.
- 04Selection of studiesStep · The review teamThe guideline asks how studies were judged eligible, including how many reviewers screened. It does not fix the number of reviewers.
- 05Flow diagramRecordThe flow diagram shows the number of records found, the number of studies included and the reasons for exclusion.
03 Analyse
- 06Data collectionStep · The review teamThe guideline asks how data were collected from reports and which data items were sought.
- 07Risk of biasStep · The review teamThe guideline asks for the methods and tools used to assess risk of bias.
- 08SynthesisModel · The review teamThe guideline asks for the effect measures and the synthesis methods. It does not prescribe meta-analysis.
- 09Certainty of evidenceStep · The review teamThe guideline asks for the methods used to assess certainty, and reports the result per outcome. It does not name a grading scale.
04 Report
- 10Review reportRecordThe guideline helps authors report why the review was done, what they did and what they found.
ReportsOutline of an externally published reporting guideline, not a Nexus process and not a record of operation. PRISMA 2020 mainly covers reviews of intervention effects. No Nexus page names it. Every programme is at service level R0.
08Connections
Topics that rely on this method.
09Stewardship
Who maintains the method.
Economic Development stewards econometrics for the Consortium and reviews how it is applied across platforms.
10Connected
Where this page leads across the Consortium.
11Questions
Questions and answers.
What are the limits of econometrics in this field?
Endogeneity, measurement error and structural change can bias estimates. Relationships may shift under extreme conditions.
How are results checked?
Models are assessed through specification tests, robustness checks and out-of-sample performance. Results are compared across datasets and methods.
Are the values on this page real?
The data names, roles and checks are real descriptions of practice. The canvas shows a design of the method’s use, not a run; no result is reported here.
Where else is this method applied?
The canonical method page lists every platform that applies it.
ReportsContribute
Contribute evidence from this page.
Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
GCRIFood NexusGlobal Sector Risk and ResilienceCountry Systems Risk and ResilienceEvidence Brief
- EmailGateway GW-GCRISend it from this pageEvidence, a correction, a case, a method, a review, a translation or profile input. It arrives tagged with this page, so the editor who owns it receives it.
- ZenodoOpen depositDeposit it and submit to the communityPublish your own record on Zenodo with your ORCID iD, then submit it to the Reports community there. Curators review it; the DOI stays yours.
- ReportsGCRISee every way to contributeThe contribution types, how each is reviewed, what credit you receive, the licence and what is never accepted.
Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.
Food Nexus
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