Contact and mobility networks
Agent-based models represent households, schools, workplaces and travel, so the effect of contact patterns and public health measures on transmission can be explored under stated parameters.
GCRI · Health Nexus
Complex pergalan methods show how health risk emerges from interactions: people mixing and moving, hospitals sharing patients and staff, supply networks sharing suppliers, and health services depending on power and water. Agent-based and system dynamics models let these interactions be explored as scenarios, with every assumption visible.
Complex pergalan and agent-based modelling study systems whose behaviour emerges from interactions among many components. They help explain nonlinear dynamics, tipping points and collective behaviour. In health and biosecurity, complex systems approaches explore how interacting risks can produce sudden, systemic shifts. They support stress testing of policies against emergent behaviour. The canonical description is on STEM Commons.
Agent-based models represent households, schools, workplaces and travel, so the effect of contact patterns and public health measures on transmission can be explored under stated parameters.
System dynamics models link power, water, staff and supply buffers to service capacity, tracing how a grid outage or pêla germê propagates into hospital functions over hours and days.
Networks of referrals and transfers between hospitals are analysed to see where surges concentrate and how resistant organisms can spread between facilities.
Daytime surface heat, population density and haze over Africa, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.
Nexşeya înteraktîf JavaScript hewce dike; lîsteya qatan û çavkanî li jêr in.
Qat 3
Rûbirûbûna jîngehî, ji bo vê rûpelê
Klavye, dema ku nexşe di fokusê de ye
Ctrl an ⌘ bigire û bizivirîne da ku nêzîk bikî
Ya herî dawî ya heyî
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
Wêneyên herî nû yên NASA tê barkirin.
Bikişîne da ku bilivîne. Ctrl an ⌘ û zivirandin, pincandin an bişkojkan ji bo nêzîkkirinê; ji bo nirxên di bin nîşanderê de li ser bisekine; vegerandin vedigere herêmê.
Environmental exposure, framed on Africa.Berhemên peyk û modelê wekî NASA diweşîne, her yek bi dîroka xwe. Nîşander in, ne nirxandinên tu cihî ne.
Qat û dîrok
Datasets and records used by complex pergalan and agent-based modelling on this platform, with the role each plays and the label its values carry. Sources are listed in the source register.
| Dane | Rol | Nîşan |
|---|---|---|
| Social contact surveys | Mixing matrices by age and setting | ÇAVDÊRÎKIRÎ |
| Aggregated mobility data from transport and telecommunications | Movement between places | TEXMÎNKIRÎ |
| Hospital transfer records | Referral network structure | REPORTED |
| Facility dependency inventories | Buffers and failure thresholds | Statîstîkên weşandî |
Du stok, zext û kapasîteya adaptasyonê, bi xelekeke mezinbûna xurtkirinê, bersiveke hevsengker a dereng û zerarê ve girêdayî dema ku zext ji kapasîteyê derbas dibe; ji sînor derbas bibe pergal dikare biqelibe. Modela hînkirinê bi nirxên ronîker ên diyarkirî, ne pêşbînî. Nexşeya vê rûpelê Afrîkayê nîşan dide; model bi xwe bi cihekî ve ne girêdayî ye.
Kontrol
Xwendin
| Sal | Zextê | Kapasîte | Hatî dîtin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.0 | 50.0 | 20.0 |
| 4 | 23.3 | 44.9 | 21.2 |
| 8 | 27.2 | 42.2 | 24.0 |
| 12 | 31.7 | 42.3 | 27.7 |
| 16 | 36.8 | 45.5 | 32.2 |
| 20 | 42.3 | 51.5 | 37.2 |
| 24 | 47.9 | 60.3 | 42.6 |
| 28 | 53.2 | 71.3 | 48.0 |
| 32 | 57.8 | 84.3 | 53.1 |
| 36 | 66.4 | 98.4 | 58.4 |
| 40 | 82.7 | 115.9 | 69.7 |
| 44 | 97.8 | 139.7 | 83.8 |
| 48 | 109.1 | 169.4 | 97.3 |
No observed data enters this model: it runs on the teaching values set by the controls, to be replaced with a programme’s own evidence.
Li seranserê şeş stûnan, bi pêşengiya Nexus Consortium
Models are evaluated by matching multiple stylised facts and patterns at different scales. Sensitivity and robustness analysis test dependence on assumptions.
| Kontrol bikin | How it is done |
|---|---|
| Pattern-oriented validation | Models must reproduce several observed patterns at different scales, not a single curve |
| Cîhanî sensitivity analysis | The parameters that drive most of the outcome range are identified and reported |
| Structural alternatives | Results are compared with simpler or differently structured models before conclusions are drawn |
Many plausible models can reproduce the same patterns. Calibration and validation data are often limited.
Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile Health security and One Health: the hazards it names, the pergalan and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Choose the components, pick an initiating hazard and step through the cascade. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every coupling weight is a stated assumption you can change. A teaching model, not a forecast, an assessment or a certification. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.
Metirsî
Pergal û girêdan
Kontrol
NS-0 Destûr û prensîbNS-3 UNIyên tomara xetereyê (rêzimanî, nexşeya veguhastina ji pergala kevin, desthilata veqetandinê)NS-9 UNI yên çarçoveyî (belavkirin, mînak, mînakên bernameyê)NS-10 Policies and clauses (machine-readable obligations: definition, binding, evaluation and enforcement)NS-11 Piştrastkirin û çavdêrî (delîl, erêkirin, çavdêriya lihevhatina zero-trust)NRS-H83 Malbata metirsiyê: Têkçûna kapasîteya pergala tenduristiyê (NHS-1 health.system)NRS-H42 Malbata metirsiyê: Enfeksiyonên mirovî yên kêm û domdar (NHS-1 health.other-human)NRS-H41 Malbata metirsiyê: Derbasbûna ji heywanan bo mirovan (NHS-1 health.zoonotic)NRS-H43 Malbata metirsiyê: Şewbaxên heywanan di xwedîkirina heywanan û avçandiniyê de (NHS-1 health.animal-health)NRS-D3 Bersiva mirovî û başbûna berxwedêrNRS-H46 Malbata metirsiyê: Zirara jîngehî û ya berheman li mirovan (NHS-1 health.harm)Çavdêrî
Erdnîgariya mînakê
The sectors complex pergalan modelling for health touches and how strongly they depend on each other: what a study has to observe and model together.
Îmze
Tenduristî û hevkarên wê
Tenduristî ji bo xebitandinê hêza kar dide binesaziyê (0.3), keda zeviyê dide xwarinê (0.3) û hêza kar a xizmetên giştî dide avê (0.2).
W · E · I · F · H · B
Zanista pergalan û modelkirin stewards complex pergalan and agent-based modelling for the Consortium and reviews how it is applied across platforms.
Model, texmînên wî, daneyên wî û nediyariya wî, bi şeweyê ku zanyar an endezyar kontrol bike. Avahî rêbazên weşandî dişopînin. Nirxên hatine xêzkirin nimûneyî ne, ne encam in.
The model structure used for complex systems modelling for health, the assumptions it makes and how each is tested.
Ri = f(Hi, Ei, Vi, Ci)metirsî, rûbirûbûn, lawazî û kapasîteya serederiyêEAL = ∑k pk · Lkli ser bûyerên k bi îhtîmala salane pkxt+1 = A xt + B ut + εtA carries the couplings, u the shock, ε the error| Texmîn | Çima tê çêkirin | Çawa tê ceribandin |
|---|---|---|
| Metirsî û rûbirûbûn di nav bûyerekê de serbixwe ne | Entegrala windahiyê ji hesabkirinê re maqûl dihêle | Bi lihevhatineke copula li ser tomarên hevbeş re bidin ber hev |
| Girêdan li nêzî xala xebatê xêzik in | Dihêle şok di A de belav bibin | Ji derveyî rêza xêzik tevlihev bike û bide ber hev |
| Xêzên lawaziyê di navbera cihan de têne veguhastin | Xêzikên herêmî kêm tên dîtin | Li hember windahiyên çavdêrîkirî erê bike li cihê ku hene |
rêzeya Pergalên Stratejîk is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
Tu carî daneyên şexsî, hûrgiliyên binesaza hesas an tiştekî ku mafê we yê parvekirinê tune ne neşînin. Beşdarî berî bikaranînê tê nirxandin; şandina wê nivîskarî an mafên edîtorî nade û sponsorî tu carî encamekê nakire.
Agahî û pirs îro vekirî ne. Pirsek referansekê distîne û gava piştî wê dide nasîn; serlêdan, drav, veqetandina hesabkirinê û tomarkirin tenê dema ku tîm, mercên wê û kapasîteya vekolînê hebin vedibin.
Nexşe, dane û jimarên vê malperê ji bo çarçoveyê û agahiyên giştî têne nîşandan. Ew ne şîret, ne pêşbînî û ne hişyarî ne; sînorên agahiyê di Daxuyaniyên Berpirsiyariyê û Daxuyaniyên Daneyê de hatine diyarkirin.
This site uses only strictly necessary cookies to work and to remember your privacy choices. Nothing loads from other companies, and we never sell or share your personal information.
This site uses only strictly necessary cookies to work and to remember your privacy choices. Nothing loads from other companies, and we never sell or share your personal information. We run no advertising. You can review your choices at any time through Privacy choices at the foot of every page.