GCRI · Labs
Laboratuvara paşeroja kar
Work changes when technologies, contracts, skills and institutions change, and research on that change is often loud and weakly identified. This lab studies how automation, platform work, remote work, skills pergalan and workplace institutions reshape jobs and organisations, with designs that can tell a real effect from a trend. This page sets out the mechanisms, the measures, the data, the methods and the people who decide on the evidence.
Future of work lab on the record.
Future of work lab: how the risk develops.
Workforce and institutional change research. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.
Tasks change before jobs
Technologies automate or augment specific tasks, not whole occupations. Jobs are rebundled, skill demands shift within roles, and the effect on employment depends on how firms reorganise work around the tool.
Exposure is not impact
Indices of which occupations are exposed to a technology describe potential, not outcome. Adoption, cost, regulation and bargaining decide what happens, so exposure indices need causal evidence before they inform policy.
Institutions mediate change
Collective agreements, training pergalan, parastina civakî and labour law shape whether change raises productivity and wages or shifts risk onto workers. The same technology can produce different outcomes under different institutions.
Workplace trials carry power
Experiments inside firms involve employees who may not feel free to refuse. Consent, worker representation, data protection and a real right to opt out decide whether a workplace study is ethical and its results credible.
Stok, herik, dereng û sînorê guherînê.
Du stok, zext û kapasîteya adaptasyonê, bi xelekeyeke mezinbûnê ya xurtker, bersiveke hevsengiyê ya dereng û zirarê dema ku zext ji kapasîteyê derbas dibe têne girêdan; li derveyî sînor pergal dikare biguhere. Modela fêrkirinê bi nirxên nimûneyî yên diyarkirî, ne pêşbînî.
Kontrol
- Zêdebûna zextê
- 6.0% salê
- Bandora kapasîteyê di kêmkirina zextê de
- 4.0% salê
- Bersiva veberhênanê li hember zextê ya hatî dîtin
- 20%
- Derengiya têgihîştinê
- 4.0 sal
- Sînorê guherînê yê zextê
- 60 indeks
- Zêdebûn li derveyî sînor
- 2.0 carî
- Salên simulekirî
- 50 sal
Xwendin
- Zexta herî bilind
- 113 nîşander
- Kapasîte di dawiyê de
- 186 indeks
- Salên li ser sînor
- 15.8 sal
Jimar, rêbaz û çavkanî
| Sal | Zextê | Kapasîte | Hatî dîtin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.0 | 50.0 | 20.0 |
| 4 | 23.3 | 44.9 | 21.2 |
| 8 | 27.2 | 42.2 | 24.0 |
| 12 | 31.7 | 42.3 | 27.7 |
| 16 | 36.8 | 45.5 | 32.2 |
| 20 | 42.3 | 51.5 | 37.2 |
| 24 | 47.9 | 60.3 | 42.6 |
| 28 | 53.2 | 71.3 | 48.0 |
| 32 | 57.8 | 84.3 | 53.1 |
| 36 | 66.4 | 98.4 | 58.4 |
| 40 | 82.7 | 115.9 | 69.7 |
| 44 | 97.8 | 139.7 | 83.8 |
| 48 | 109.1 | 169.4 | 97.3 |
Rêbaz
- Dînamîkên pergalê Forrester (1961), Industrial Dynamics, MIT Press; Sterman (2000), Business Dynamics
- Veguherînên krîtîk û xalên guherînê Scheffer and others (2009), Early-warning signals for critical transitions, Nature 461
- Diagrama xelekeya sedemî Sterman (2000), Business Dynamics, McGraw-Hill
- Pankeya nediyarîyê (Monte Carlo ya parametreyan) Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333
- Hesasiyeta yek-yek (tornado) Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley
Dane
No observed data enters this model: it runs on the teaching values set by the controls, to be replaced with a programme’s own evidence.
Li seranserê şeş stûnan, bi pêşengiya Nexus Consortium
- Ceribandin Labs di Labs de
- Hatiye avakirin di Labs di Foundry de
- Tê ceribandin li Labs li Universe
- Hatiye kodkirin di Dane û delîl di Standards de
- Hatiye weşandin di Labs di Reports de
- Tê de tê dayîn Fakulteya Zanista xetereyê û Rêbazan di Academy de
The work lab studies change in each domain’s workforce.
Findings feed the rêzeya Labs Evidence. The ILO’s 2023 working paper sets out exposure measures.
- Workplace study sites.
- Worker accounts with consent.
How future of work lab is modelled, measured and tested.
Model, texmînên wî, daneyên wî û nediyariya wî, bi şeweyê ku zanyar an endezyar kontrol bike. Avahî rêbazên weşandî dişopînin. Nirxên hatine xêzkirin nimûneyî ne, ne encam in.
Model, hevkêşe û texmîn
The model structure used for future of work lab, the assumptions it makes and how each is tested.
Ri = f(Hi, Ei, Vi, Ci)metirsî, rûbirûbûn, lawazî û kapasîteya serederiyêEAL = ∑k pk · Lkli ser bûyerên k bi îhtîmala salane pkxt+1 = A xt + B ut + εtA carries the couplings, u the shock, ε the error| Texmîn | Çima tê çêkirin | Çawa tê ceribandin |
|---|---|---|
| Metirsî û rûbirûbûn di nav bûyerekê de serbixwe ne | Entegrala windahiyê ji hesabkirinê re maqûl dihêle | Bi lihevhatineke copula li ser tomarên hevbeş re bidin ber hev |
| Girêdan li nêzî xala xebatê xêzik in | Dihêle şok di A de belav bibin | Ji derveyî rêza xêzik tevlihev bike û bide ber hev |
| Xêzên lawaziyê di navbera cihan de têne veguhastin | Xêzikên herêmî kêm tên dîtin | Li hember windahiyên çavdêrîkirî erê bike li cihê ku hene |
- Têketin
- danehevên bi guhertoyan û çavkaniyê
- Derketin
- belavkirin, tu carî jimarên tenê
- Kod
- bi qerta modelê û ceribandinan re hat weşandin
- Zêdebûn
- heman dane, kod, jîngeh û tov
What is measured, and how well.
Each indicator carries its unit, its cadence, the kind of source behind it and the evidence label a value would carry. No values are shown: a programme supplies them under its own authority.
| Indicator | Unit | Cadence | Source type | Nîşan |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Task exposure index | dimensionless index by occupation | annual | Task databases mapped to technology capability | MODELKIRÎ |
| Firm adoption of the studied technology | percent of firms | annual | Enterprise surveys | TEXMÎNKIRÎ |
| Adult skills proficiency | score on the survey scale | per survey cycle | OECD Survey of Adult Skills | ÇAVDÊRÎKIRÎ |
| Job quality index | composite index | per survey cycle | Working conditions surveys | TEXMÎNKIRÎ |
| Participation in job-related training | percent of adults | annual | Labour force and adult education surveys | Statîstîkên weşandî |
| Pre-analysis plans for workplace trials | percent of trials registered before launch | annual | AEA RCT Registry | Statîstîkên weşandî |
| Worker representatives consulted | percent of workplace studies | per study | Study ethics records | DECLARED |
Where the evidence comes from.
Named public datasets and institutional records, each with its licence class. Sources by agreement are used only under their terms and never republished.
| Çavkanî | What it gives | Licence class |
|---|---|---|
| ILOSTAT (International Labour Organization) | Employment, hours, wages and informality by country | Free and open, CC BY |
| OECD Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) | Literacy, numeracy and problem solving of adults, with job tasks | OECD terms; microdata by release |
| O*NET (US Department of Labor) | Task, skill and work activity descriptors by occupation | Open, CC BY |
| ESCO (European Commission) | Multilingual classification of skills, competences and occupations | Free and open, attribution |
| European Working Conditions Survey (Eurofound) | Job quality, autonomy, work intensity and representation | Free for research, end-user licence |
| AEA RCT Registry (American Economic Association) | Registered field experiments and pre-analysis plans in economics | Free access, terms of use |
| National labour force surveys | Employment, occupation and training microdata | Terms per statistical office |
Who decides, and what the evidence serves.
Labs prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.
| Kî biryarê dide | The question | Evidence this page serves |
|---|---|---|
| Labour ministries and public employment services | Which training and transition programmes to fund or scale | Impact evaluations with credible comparison groups, cost data, effects by group |
| Employers and worker representatives | Whether and how to introduce a technology, with what consultation and safeguards | Pilot evaluation, task and job-quality effects, data protection assessment |
| Research ethics committees | Whether a workplace experiment protects voluntariness and personal data | Consent design, opt-out route, representation agreement, data minimisation |
| Research funders | Which questions on work and technology merit sustained funding | Evidence gaps mapped by strength of design, not by volume of commentary |
Outputs this topic produces
- Pre-analysis plans for workplace and labour market trials
- Occupational task maps linked to technology capability, with the method stated
- Evaluations of training and transition programmes with the identification strategy stated
- Ethics and consultation records for studies inside workplaces
What experts ask about changing work.
- Which tasks within an occupation are changing, rather than which jobs disappear?
- Who bears the costs of transition, by region, age, sex, sector and skill level?
- Which training, matching and income-support measures actually change outcomes?
- How do institutions such as schools, unions, employers and public employment services adapt?
- How do heat, disasters and supply disruptions affect work and safety?
The forces reshaping work.
Economists analyse technological change at the level of tasks. A technology may substitute for some tasks, complement others and create new ones; the net effect on an occupation depends on the mix and on how employers reorganise work. Automation and AI tend to affect routine cognitive and manual tasks first, but recent tools also reach into tasks once thought to require judgement.
Other forces act alongside technology. Ageing populations change labour supply and care needs. Climate change raises heat exposure for outdoor and industrial workers and shifts employment between sectors during energy transitions. Trade and supply-chain disruptions can concentrate job losses in particular places, where the effects persist for years.
Institutions shape outcomes. The same technology can produce very different results depending on training pergalan, labour law, parastina civakî and bargaining arrangements.
Evidence and its limits.
- 01
Task and occupation data
Classifications of work activities linked to employment data. They lag behind real change and vary between countries.
- 02
Labour force and administrative records
Surveys and registers tracking employment, earnings and transitions. Access is often restricted and linking sources raises privacy questions.
- 03
Impact evaluation
Randomised and quasi-experimental studies of training and matching programmes using causal inference. Results may not transfer across labour markets.
- 04
Workplace experiments
Controlled trials of new tools or practices inside organisations, under consent and ethics review.
Forecasts of jobs lost or created are highly sensitive to assumptions and are not presented as predictions. The lab reports scenarios with their assumptions.
How it is studied, and what the methods cannot say.
- 01Encamgirtina sedemî û nirxandina bandorêRandomised pilots and stepped rollouts · Quasi-experimental programme evaluationApplied here
- 02Îhtîmal û statîstîkSample size and power planning · Meta-analysis with bias assessmentApplied here
- 03Zîrekiya çêkirî û fêrbûna makîneyêAssisted screening for systematic reviews · Surrogate models to guide experimentsApplied here
- 04Pîvandina nediyariyê û rastandina modelêMeasurement uncertainty budgets · Sensitivity analysis of simulation modelsApplied here
Where this page’s references lead.
Sazî û belgeyên ku ev rûpel li hember wan tê xwendin. Rewş û çap diguherin; her girêdan diçe ba saziya derxistinê.
Pirs û bersiv.
Does exposure to automation mean jobs will be lost?
Why register a pre-analysis plan for a field experiment?
Can employees refuse to take part in a workplace study?
Does the lab predict how many jobs will be lost to AI?
Can an employer run a workplace trial with the lab?
How does this lab differ from the Future of Work and Skills platform?
Ji vê rûpelê delîl bidin.
rêzeya Pergalên Stratejîk is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
- E-nameDergeh GW-GCRIJi vê rûpelê bişîninDelîl, rastkirin, doz, rêbaz, nirxandin, wergerandin an têketina profîlê. Bi nîşana vê rûpelê digihîje, ji ber vê yekê edîtorê xwediyê wê wê bistîne.
- ZenodoDepoya vekirîWê razînin û ji civakê re bişîninTomara xwe li Zenodo bi ORCID iD ya xwe biweşînin, paşê wê li wir ji civaka Reports re bişînin. Kurator wê vedikolin; DOI ya we dimîne.
- rêzeya Pergalên StratejîkGCRIHemû rêyên beşdariyê bibîneCureyên beşdariyê, her yek çawa tê nirxandin, tu çi navlêkirinê distînî, lîsans û tiştê ku qet nayê qebûlkirin.
Tu carî daneyên şexsî, hûrgiliyên binesaza hesas an tiştekî ku mafê we yê parvekirinê tune ne neşînin. Beşdarî berî bikaranînê tê nirxandin; şandina wê nivîskarî an mafên edîtorî nade û sponsorî tu carî encamekê nakire.
Rêbazek, danehevek an pirsek bîne.
Agahî û pirs îro vekirî ne. Pirsek referansekê distîne û gava piştî wê dide nasîn; serlêdan, drav, veqetandina hesabkirinê û tomarkirin tenê dema ku tîm, mercên wê û kapasîteya vekolînê hebin vedibin.
Belgeyên hiqûqî.
Nexşe, dane û jimarên vê malperê ji bo çarçoveyê û agahiyên giştî têne nîşandan. Ew ne şîret, ne pêşbînî û ne hişyarî ne; sînorên agahiyê di Daxuyaniyên Berpirsiyariyê û Daxuyaniyên Daneyê de hatine diyarkirin.