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Need is rising as support contracts

Part I describes systems and their couplings. It ranks no country or operator and assesses no authority.

6 min read2 figures1 table13 notesNR-SECTOR-DEVELOPMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Need is rising as support contracts
    1. 1.1 The questions this part answers
    2. 1.2 The argument
    3. 1.3 Twenty couplings between five systems
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Funding contraction, displacement surge and food price shock in a highly indebted fragile economy
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

  • Where is development and humanitarian risk concentrated?
  • Which couplings carry development and humanitarian shocks into other systems?
  • Which development and humanitarian capabilities hold under compound stress?
  • What must 2027 evidence measure first?

In this part

  • Narrative
  • Headline finding
  • Lead figure
  • Five coupling chapters
  • Twelve-domain reading
  • Sector screens
  • Dependency matrix
  • Risk objects
  • Capability ladder
  • Scenario
  • Three lenses
  • Portfolio

1.2The argument

Development and humanitarian action is usually reported as appeals, flows and caseloads. The 2026 evidence reads it as the place where every other system’s failure becomes a human cost: hunger, disease, displacement and debt arrive in the same households1913.

Need rose through the first half of 2026. OCHA counted 239 million people in urgent need at launch and 252 million at mid-year, and it names conflict as the main driver, with climate shocks and health emergencies close behind13. In 2025, three out of four civilian conflict deaths occurred in countries that have a humanitarian plan or appeal1.

Money moved the other way. DAC aid fell 23.1% in real terms in 2025, and humanitarian assistance from DAC members fell 35.8%8. Reported humanitarian funding fell about 24% in a year5. Partners responded by concentrating help where needs are most severe, and still reached only about one in six people in need in early 20264.

Some indicators held. Internal displacement fell for the first time in a decade, chronic hunger edged down and social protection now reaches more than half of the world’s people7109. Yet extreme poverty has stalled near one in ten, the multidimensional poverty count rose, and debt service takes more than health or education in much of Africa91314.

Figure 1.1How far does response reach against need? People, mid-2026 (million)

Plans target 143 million people and prioritise 89 million; partners reached about 18% of those in need in the first five months (method 3). Many of those reached received only partial assistance or reduced service packages34.

ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
In urgent need252
Targeted by plans143
Prioritised89
Reached, January to May45.2

Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2026.

Figure ID FIG-SECTOR-DEVELOPMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-01-003

25.4million

reached where needs are most severe (58%)4

5.3million

refugees assisted within the reach figure4

34USD billion

appeal at mid-year 20262

8.21USD billion

contributions by end-May 20264

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The development and humanitarian-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems, read for their development and humanitarian content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.

Figure 1.2Couplings between the five systems

Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Weak

Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.

Table 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
From, toWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT Water·WEAK
pumping load		MODERATE
irrigation · livelihoods		STRONG
outbreaks · hygiene · displacement sites		WEAK
catchment pressure
ENE EnergyWEAK
pumping · treatment		·MODERATE
cold chain · fuel for farms		STRONG
clinic power · cooking		WEAK
fuelwood
FOO FoodWEAK
withdrawals		WEAK
bioenergy		·STRONG
malnutrition · famine		MODERATE
land clearing
HLT HealthWEAK
workforce		WEAK
facility demand		MODERATE
labour · child wasting		·WEAK
zoonoses
BIO BiodiversityWEAK
catchments		WEAK
biomass		MODERATE
fisheries · pollination		WEAK
ecosystem services		·
Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.

Transmission paths

  1. 01

    FIN → FOO → HLT

    Aid cuts and a price shock reach households as hunger and illness.

    Reported 2025 to 2026 aid cuts and food assistance phase-outs48

  2. 02

    CLI → WAT → HLT

    Storms and floods displace people and break safe water services.

    Reported 2025 storm displacement7

  3. 03

    FIN → HLT

    Falling aid reduces health services, with modelled effects on child survival.

    Inferred health aid fall 2024 and 202592728

  4. 04

    TRD → FIN → FOO

    Supply-chain disruption and higher prices raise the cost of aid and food.

    Reported 2026 supply-chain disruption2

  5. 05

    FIN → DAT

    Cuts reach statistics and surveillance, so need is measured less well.

    Reported 2025 survey of statistical offices9

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1OCHA (ed.), Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Trends in crises and needs: a world at breaking point (December 2025; people in urgent need, drivers, famine and Catastrophe counts, civilian fatalities). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 9United Nations (UN DESA, ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2026 (full report, PDF). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025 (data from 2015 to 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 13UNDP and OPHI (eds.), Global Multidimensional Poverty Index 2026 (report page with headline findings). United Nations Development Programme, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 3OCHA (ed.), Mid-Year Review of the Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Trends in crises and needs: civilians in the line of fire (June 2026). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 8OECD (ed.), Preliminary official development assistance levels in 2025 (data note, April 2026; text read from the European Commission Knowledge for Policy record of the note, the OECD page returned an access error). Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 5OCHA (ed.), Financial Tracking Service, public API, funding flows by year (2022 to 2025), queried at access; recent years are incomplete. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 4OCHA (ed.), Mid-Year Review of the Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Humanitarians in action in 2026: delivering against the odds (people targeted, prioritised and reached; contributions to end-May 2026). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 7IDMC (ed.), Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 (full report, May 2026). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 10FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (publication page with headline estimates). Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 14UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 2OCHA (ed.), Humanitarian Action, Global Humanitarian Overview 2026 landing and at-a-glance pages (requirements and prioritised requirements at launch, plan list, mid-year appeal, supply-chain disruption note). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 27Cavalcanti, D.M. et al., Evaluating the impact of two decades of USAID interventions and projecting the effects of defunding on mortality up to 2030: a retrospective impact evaluation and forecasting analysis, The Lancet, 2025 (abstract read through Europe PMC). Elsevier. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 28Sibils, G.B. et al., Wealth redistribution policies to mitigate the impact of development assistance defunding: a retrospective evaluation and forecasting analysis up to 2030, The Lancet, 2026 (abstract read through Europe PMC). Elsevier. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 1: Need is rising as support contracts. In Global Development and Humanitarian Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Development and Humanitarian Action Worldwide. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-DEVELOPMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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