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Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

6 min read1 figure0 tables11 notesNR-SECTOR-DEVELOPMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
    1. S.1 Abstract
    2. S.2 Key messages
    3. S.3 Headline finding
    4. S.4 At a glance
    5. S.5 What each steward reads in it
    6. S.6 What this edition is, and is not
  3. 1Need is rising as support contracts
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Funding contraction, displacement surge and food price shock in a highly indebted fragile economy
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

S.1Abstract

The world enters 2027 with more people in need, less money to meet the need and a thinner margin between a crisis and a catastrophe. OCHA counted 239 million people in urgent need of humanitarian assistance at the start of 2026 and 252 million by mid-year, with conflict the main driver13. Funding moved the other way. Official development assistance from DAC members fell 23.1% in real terms in 2025 to USD 174.3 billion, the largest annual fall on record, and humanitarian funding reported to FTS fell from USD 37.1 billion in 2024 to USD 28.3 billion in 202585. Humanitarian partners reached 45.2 million of the 252 million people in need in the first five months of 2026, about one in six4. Poverty and hunger are no longer falling fast: an estimated 826 million people live on less than USD 3.00 a day in 2026, 645 million were chronically undernourished in 2025 and 266 million faced acute food insecurity91011. Internal displacement fell for the first time in a decade, to 82.2 million people at the end of 2025 by the IDMC count, but many returns happened under unsafe conditions79. Debt costs add a third pressure: developing countries paid close to USD 1 trillion in interest in 202514. This baseline sets out what the evidence supports and where it is thin. It ranks no country and recommends no policy.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the development and humanitarian baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  1. About 252 million by mid-2026, up from 239 million at the start of the year.13

    How many people need humanitarian help?Reported

  2. Reported humanitarian funding fell to USD 28.3 billion in 2025, and DAC aid fell 23.1% in real terms.58

    How much money is available?Reported

  3. About one in six of those in need, January to May 2026.4

    How many are reached?Reported

  4. 82.2 million internally displaced by the IDMC count; UNHCR counts differ by method.67

    How many are displaced?Reported

  5. Chronic hunger edged down to 645 million; acute hunger affected 266 million.1011

    Is hunger falling?Reported

  6. Not on the current path: 826 million in 2026 and about 9% still poor in 2030.9

    Is extreme poverty ending?Reported

  7. Close to USD 1 trillion of interest in 2025, more than health or education in much of Africa.14

    What does debt add?Reported

  8. A funding contraction that coincides with displacement and a food price shock. SCN-GS06-FND-01

    What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-DEVELOPMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003

In 2025, official development assistance from DAC members fell 23.1% in real terms to USD 174.3 billion, the largest annual fall on record.

Figure S.1DAC official development assistance, 2025 (USD billion)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Total174.3
Bilateral126.4
Multilateral47.9
Humanitarian assistance (bilateral)15.5

Source: OECD preliminary 2025 data note8. Humanitarian assistance is part of bilateral aid. Figures are preliminary.

The fall was broad but concentrated: 26 of 34 members reduced aid, and the five largest providers made up 95.7% of the fall. The United States alone made up 75.1% of it, and Germany became the largest provider for the first time. UN SDG reporting shows aid grants for poverty reduction were already back at 2015 levels in 2024, and net aid for basic health fell 12.4% that year89.

S.4At a glance

252million

in urgent need, mid-20263

174.3USD billion

DAC aid, 20258

1 in 6people

in need reached, January to May 20264

826million

below USD 3.00 a day, 20269

266million

in acute food insecurity, 202511

≈1USD trillion

interest on public debt, 202514

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports reading development and humanitarian action as the human-outcome layer of the WEFH+B system.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people this is a ration cut, a clinic closure or a school that cannot open.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Aid has contracted, interest costs are near USD 1 trillion and remittances now exceed aid several times over.

NEXUS

Synthesis

Development and humanitarian action is well counted at the level of need, displacement and hunger and thinly counted at the level of attacks, casualties and local delivery.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the 2026 state of development and humanitarian action worldwide and the couplings through which it carries risk into other systems. It synthesises published evidence and ranks no country, company or asset.

What it is not

Not a ranking of countries or crises, a funding recommendation, a forecast of famine or displacement, or an assessment of any agency, donor, programme or government. Humanitarian decisions, aid allocation and development policy rest with affected states, donors, agencies and communities.

What comes next

National, regional and sector evidence feeds the 2027 development and humanitarian edition through the federation. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline: observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1OCHA (ed.), Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Trends in crises and needs: a world at breaking point (December 2025; people in urgent need, drivers, famine and Catastrophe counts, civilian fatalities). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 3OCHA (ed.), Mid-Year Review of the Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Trends in crises and needs: civilians in the line of fire (June 2026). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 8OECD (ed.), Preliminary official development assistance levels in 2025 (data note, April 2026; text read from the European Commission Knowledge for Policy record of the note, the OECD page returned an access error). Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 5OCHA (ed.), Financial Tracking Service, public API, funding flows by year (2022 to 2025), queried at access; recent years are incomplete. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 4OCHA (ed.), Mid-Year Review of the Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Humanitarians in action in 2026: delivering against the odds (people targeted, prioritised and reached; contributions to end-May 2026). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 9United Nations (UN DESA, ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2026 (full report, PDF). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025 (data from 2015 to 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 10FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (publication page with headline estimates). Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 11WFP (ed.), Global hunger crisis page citing the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises (266 million people in crisis levels of hunger or worse; 70% in fragile or conflict-affected countries). World Food Programme, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 7IDMC (ed.), Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 (full report, May 2026). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 14UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 6UNHCR (ed.), Refugee Population Statistics Database, public API, global totals 2015 to 2025 (refugees, asylum-seekers, IDPs, returns, stateless people). United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this summary

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Executive summary: Executive summary. In Global Development and Humanitarian Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Development and Humanitarian Action Worldwide. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-DEVELOPMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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