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The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 development and humanitarian agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 development and humanitarian edition.

5 min read0 figures6 tables3 notesNR-SECTOR-DEVELOPMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Need is rising as support contracts
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Funding contraction, displacement surge and food price shock in a highly indebted fragile economy
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027: evidence pack for the development and humanitarian candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. D-01

    How would a funding contraction that coincides with a displacement surge and a food price shock travel through food, health and water at once?

    INI-GS06-FND-01 · compound stress test; first output: concurrency analysis for six regions.

  2. D-02

    Where does prioritised aid leave the largest gaps between people in need and people reached?

    INI-GS06-RCH-02 · reach and prioritisation; first output: gap table by sector and region.

  3. D-03

    In which countries does debt service displace spending on health, education and social protection?

    INI-GS06-DBT-03 · debt and social spending; first output: overlay of debt service and service access.

  4. D-04

    What happens to statistics, surveillance and health programmes when external funding falls?

    INI-GS06-DAT-04 · evidence systems under cuts; first output: register of affected data programmes.

  5. D-05

    Which returns of refugees and displaced people are safe and lasting, and which are not?

    INI-GS06-RTN-05 · returns and protection; first output: returns evidence table.

  6. D-06

    Can attacks on aid and health workers be counted on one common basis?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: measurement note.

  7. D-07

    How much of disaster displacement can anticipatory finance reach before the event?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. D-08

    Which humanitarian and development capabilities have been tested under real shortfalls, and which are only planned?

    Development and humanitarian capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 development and humanitarian portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-GS06-FND-01Compound stress testInitiativeD-01PROPOSED
INI-GS06-RCH-02Reach and prioritisationInitiativeD-02PROPOSED
INI-GS06-DBT-03Debt and social spendingInitiativeD-03PROPOSED
INI-GS06-DAT-04Evidence systems under cutsInitiativeD-04PROPOSED
INI-GS06-RTN-05Returns and protectionInitiativeD-05PROPOSED
MSN-GS06-2027-01Compound stress Universe missionMissionD-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

The development and humanitarian edition reads national development chapters, regional displacement and hunger evidence and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed; the Canada and global chapters are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

  1. 01

    National development chapters

    development and social-protection chapter of each national edition

    DRAFTED · further national baselines

  2. 02

    Crisis and displacement evidence

    shared crises, borders and displacement corridors

    PLANNED · regional Baseline Editions

  3. 03

    Development and humanitarian sector model

    the global system of need, aid and recovery

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

  4. 04

    Global and strategic links

    GLB · SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience · SR-08 Health Security, One Health and Biosecurity

    PLANNED · strategic baselines

  5. 05

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

  6. 06

    Global Development and Humanitarian Report

    this series

    BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

  7. 07

    Evidence and correction

    one graph, many projections

    OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the development and humanitarian candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027: evidence pack for the development and humanitarian candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNED2027 global annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-GS06-2027-01 · Compound stress Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
GOV-001 · needpublic recordreference for the 2027 seriesPUBLIC
FIN-002 · fundingINI-GS06-RCH-02reach and prioritisationPUBLIC
FIN-003 · aidINI-GS06-DBT-03debt and social spendingPUBLIC
GOV-005 · displacementINI-GS06-RTN-05returns and protectionPUBLIC
FOO-006 · hungerINI-GS06-FND-01 · key F reviewcompound stress testPUBLIC
FIN-009 · debtINI-GS06-DBT-03debt and social spendingPUBLIC
HLT-011 · modelled effectsINI-GS06-DAT-04evidence systems under cutsPUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-GS06-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the federationconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Global Humanitarian Overview and monitoringOCHAannual and mid-yearGOV-001
Financial Tracking ServiceOCHAcontinuousFIN-002
Population statistics databaseUNHCRannual and mid-yearGOV-005
Global Report on Internal DisplacementIDMCannualGOV-005
Global Report on Food Crises and mid-year updateFSIN and partnersannual and mid-yearFOO-006
Aid statisticsOECDpreliminary in April, final in DecemberFIN-003
Debt and development finance seriesUNCTAD and World BankannualFIN-009

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • annual publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-GS06-001Reported humanitarian funding fell about 24% in 20255CORROBORATEDFIN · GOVresearch question D-02
SIG-GS06-002Interest on public debt reached close to USD 1 trillion in 202514CORROBORATEDFIN · HLTinitiative D-03
SIG-GS06-003Cuts reach statistical programmes in low- and middle-income countries9PARTIALDAT · FINinitiative D-04

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 5OCHA (ed.), Financial Tracking Service, public API, funding flows by year (2022 to 2025), queried at access; recent years are incomplete. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 14UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 9United Nations (UN DESA, ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2026 (full report, PDF). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025 (data from 2015 to 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In Global Development and Humanitarian Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Development and Humanitarian Action Worldwide. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-DEVELOPMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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