Methodology
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Need is rising as support contracts
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Funding contraction, displacement surge and food price shock in a highly indebted fragile economy
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- A.1 Methods
- A.2 Model card, Development and Humanitarian Sector Model v0
- A.3 The baseline evidence cut
- A.4 Evidence age and coverage
- A.5 Evidence cards, two anchor sources
- A.6 Publication acceptance record
- A.7 Status words
- A.8 How the edition is made, released and corrected
- A.9 Glossary and abbreviations
- A.10 Technical annex
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
A.1Methods
The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.
| No. | Derivation | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | Change in humanitarian funding reported to FTS, 2024 to 2025 | (28.28 − 37.12) ÷ 37.12 | −23.8% |
| (2) | Change in humanitarian funding reported to FTS, 2022 to 2025 | (28.28 − 43.21) ÷ 43.21 | −34.6% |
| (3) | People reached against people in need, January to May 2026 | 45.2 ÷ 252 | 17.9% |
| (4) | Remittances to low- and middle-income countries against DAC aid, 2025 (different bases) | 703.6 ÷ 174.3 | ≈4.0 times |
| Strength | Definition |
|---|---|
| STRONG | a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season, in more than one region |
| MODERATE | an effect is documented but buffered or slower |
| WEAK | an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale |
| Label | Rule |
|---|---|
| Reported | value as issued by its source, with year |
| Inferred | reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement |
| Estimated | Nexus analytical value with stated method |
| Scenario | conditional on stated assumptions |
| Expert input | structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence |
A.2Model card, Development and Humanitarian Sector Model v0
- Model ID
- MDL-GS06-DEVELOPMENT · v0.1
- Purpose
- represent the global development and humanitarian system and its couplings to water, energy, food, health and nature
- Family
- graph-based system of systems
- Inputs
- the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
- Method
- expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events
- Validation
- none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027
- Uncertainty
- qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
- Domain of validity
- global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use
- Reproducibility
- strength table and sources published in this edition
20couplings
typed in v0
3strong
documented within one season
5moderate
documented, buffered
12weak
plausible, undocumented
A.3The baseline evidence cut
Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.
- Cut ID
- DC-SECTOR-DEVELOPMENT-GLOBAL-2026-B0
- Type
- baseline documentary cut
- Resolution policy
- pinned · as of 30 September 2026
- Sources pinned
- 46 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references
- Model runs
- none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
- Digest
- computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
- Supersedes
- nothing, first cut of the series
- Superseded by
- the 2027 development and humanitarian annual cut
Lineage
- 01
source edition
- 02
pinned citation
- 03
finding
- 04
page
- 05
publication record
| Element | Baseline 2026 | 2027 global annual |
|---|---|---|
| Sources | cited global publications, pinned by edition | national, regional and sector cuts through one graph |
| Analysis | stated methods and editorial estimates | typed analysis specifications |
| Models | Development and Humanitarian Sector Model v0 specification | model runs with receipts |
| Findings | twelve baseline findings | findings re-bound to federation evidence |
| Review | five passes scheduled | five passes on the exact digest |
A.4Evidence age and coverage
A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.
| Indicator | Observed | Released | Cadence | Next release |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Humanitarian need | 2026 | Mid-Year Review, June 2026 | annual and mid-year | GHO 2027 in December 2026 |
| Humanitarian funding | 2025 | FTS at access | continuous | monthly |
| Aid levels | 2025 preliminary | April 2026 | annual | final release in December 2026 |
| Displacement | 2025 | May to June 2026 | annual | 2027 |
| Acute hunger | 2025 and 2026 | April and August 2026 | annual and mid-year | 2027 |
| Chronic hunger | 2025 | July 2026 | annual | 2027 |
| Extreme poverty | 2026 estimate | 2026 | annual | 2027 |
| Multidimensional poverty | 2025 to 2026 | 2026 | annual | 2027 |
| Child mortality, immunisation | 2024 | October 2026 database update | annual | 2027 |
| Debt and interest | 2024 to 2025 | 2026 | annual | 2027 |
| System | Coverage | Thinnest dimension |
|---|---|---|
| Need and response | GOOD | reach by sector and region |
| Funding and aid | PARTIAL | final 2025 and 2026 figures |
| Displacement | PARTIAL | one global basis |
| Hunger | GOOD | coverage of analysed countries |
| Poverty | GOOD | poverty in fragile settings |
| Debt | PARTIAL | link to service spending by country |
| Protection and attacks | THIN | casualties among aid and health workers |
| Local delivery | THIN | share of funds reaching local organisations |
| Field | Source that would fill it | Blocker |
|---|---|---|
| Humanitarian funding for 2025 and 2026 on a final basis | OCHA Financial Tracking Service5; OECD final data8 | reporting to FTS lags; the 2025 total of USD 28.3 billion is the value at access and may rise |
| Aid worker deaths, injuries and kidnappings in 2025 and 2026 | Aid Worker Security Database32 | the database page was opened but its figures are in a dashboard and a report preview through 2024; the programme interface needs a key issued on request |
| Attacks on health care in 2025 and 2026 | WHO Surveillance System for Attacks on Health Care31 | interactive dashboard; no machine-readable extract was retrieved; counts differ by certainty level |
| UNHCR headline total of forcibly displaced people at the end of 2025 | UNHCR Global Trends report33 | the publication pages returned an access error; components were read from the statistics database instead6 |
| Internally displaced people on one global basis | UNHCR6 and IDMC7 | the two series use different scopes; not reconciled in this edition |
| Civilian deaths in armed conflict worldwide, 2025 | OHCHR and conflict data programmes | not retrieved; the Global Humanitarian Overview gives context only1 |
| Net aid received by low-income countries after 2023 | World Bank indicator19; OECD final data8 | the indicator ends in 2023; later values await the final DAC release |
| People in extreme poverty inside fragile and conflict-affected settings, as a count | World Bank poverty platform15; SDG Report9 | the SDG Report gives shares and a projection only; a count by classification was not retrieved |
| Cash assistance volumes in 2026 | OCHA monitoring4 | the Mid-Year Review says cash assistance fell significantly and gives no total |
| Share of humanitarian funding reaching local and national organisations | OCHA Financial Tracking Service5 | no figure retrieved at evidence close |
| Use of artificial intelligence in humanitarian operations and targeting | agency reports | not published on a common basis; the Global Humanitarian Overview raises the risk only in general terms1 |
| Mineral and extractive links to crisis settings | not identified | no consolidated source found for the development and humanitarian reading |
| Capability rungs beyond response and monitoring | agencies, donors and ministries | not reviewed |
A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources
Issued by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in June 2026 from country response plan monitoring. Mid-year. Role: binds GOV-001 and GOV-004 and the dashboard figure. Figures move as plans are revised.
EVD-GS06-001
Issued by the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre in May 2026 from national and partner data. Annual. Role: binds GOV-005 and the displacement tile. Scope differs from the UNHCR series.
EVD-GS06-002
IDMC Global Report on Internal Displacement 20267
| Dimension | EVD-GS06-001 | EVD-GS06-002 |
|---|---|---|
| Completeness | plans cover countries with a humanitarian response plan; coverage follows the appeals | modelled where reporting is missing; 104 countries and territories with internal displacement |
| Timeliness | about 5 months after the period | about 5 months after the year |
| Revision | plans revised through the year | annual update with revised earlier years |
| Method transparency | planning and monitoring guidance published | methodology published |
| External validation | cluster and country team review | partner and government data compared |
Evidence cards to follow in 2027
A.6Publication acceptance record
Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.
| Group | Area | Items | Pass | N/A | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | Identity and scope | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| D2 | Source and data | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 |
| D3 | Analysis and models | 12 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| D4 | Findings and claims | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| D5 | Figures, tables, maps | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| D6 | Editorial and citations | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| D7 | Review and approval | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| D8 | Artefact and design | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| D9 | Registry and release | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Publication gate
- Conditions met
- 14 of 23 at evidence close
- Blocking problems
- none recorded
- Open conditions
- reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer
Not applicable at baseline
- Model runs
- first runs in Q1 2027
- Maps
- plates in Q2 2027
- Waivers
- none
A.7Status words
| Status | What it means |
|---|---|
| Observed | Measured directly and published by the source. |
| Reported | Published statistics of an official or institutional source. |
| Declared | Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured. |
| Estimated | A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A. |
| Modelled | Produced by a stated model from cited inputs. |
| Inferred | Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured. |
| Forecast | A projection by the cited source. |
| Simulated | A simulation result under stated assumptions. |
| Scenario | A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction. |
| Expert input | Expert judgement, recorded with its basis. |
| Candidate | Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence. |
| Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject. | |
A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected
Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.
| Step | What happens | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Evidence arrives from the pillars | Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s. | |
| 02 The cut is sealed | On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on. | |
| 03 The edition is assembled | The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide. | |
| 04 The keys turn | At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward. | |
| 05 The gate opens | A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit. | |
| 06 Signed and deposited | The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI. | |
| 07 Published on its desk’s site | Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part. | |
| 08 Corrections go to Standards | Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut. |
A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).
Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.
A.9Glossary and abbreviations
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Baseline Edition | the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series |
| WEFH+B | development and humanitarian, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core |
| Coupling | a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another |
| Protection gap | the share of losses not covered by insurance |
| Capability ladder | LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED |
| EQL | evidence-quality level, 1–5 |
| Evidence cut | a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions |
| NNC · NLC · NWG | National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups |
| Abbreviation | Expansion |
|---|---|
| DAC | Development Assistance Committee of the OECD |
| FTS | Financial Tracking Service |
| GHO | Global Humanitarian Overview |
| GRFC | Global Report on Food Crises |
| IDMC | Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre |
| IDP | internally displaced person |
| IPC | Integrated Food Security Phase Classification |
| LDC | least developed country |
| MPI | Multidimensional Poverty Index |
| OCHA | United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs |
| ODA | official development assistance |
| SOFI | The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World |
A.10Technical annex
| Item | Annex | Contents | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.1 | Indicator definitions | the global indicator set, with units and sources | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.2 | Coupling strengths | the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.3 | Scenario specification | SCN-GS06-FND-01 assumptions and signposts | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.4 | Capability placements | rung evidence for fifteen functions | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.5 | Model diagnostics | first runs and validation | 2027 |
| A.6 | Sensitivity analyses | influence of coupling strengths | 2027 |
| A.7 | Crisis cards | cards for the major displacement and hunger crises | WITH REGIONAL EDITIONS |
| A.8 | Review statements | pass-by-pass review record | AT RELEASE |
A.1 · indicator definition: internal displacement
- Construct
- number of people living in internal displacement at year end because of conflict, violence or disasters
- Unit
- people
- Method
- IDMC compilation of national, agency and partner data
- Source
- IDMC Global Report on Internal Displacement 20267
- Uncertainty
- scope and coverage differ from the UNHCR series; some figures are modelled
- Known limits
- a year-end count; does not show repeated movements or return conditions
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 5OCHA (ed.), Financial Tracking Service, public API, funding flows by year (2022 to 2025), queried at access; recent years are incomplete. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8OECD (ed.), Preliminary official development assistance levels in 2025 (data note, April 2026; text read from the European Commission Knowledge for Policy record of the note, the OECD page returned an access error). Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 32Humanitarian Outcomes (ed.), Aid Worker Security Database, project page and Figures at a Glance 2025 listing (statistics through 2024 announced; the figures themselves were not extracted). Humanitarian Outcomes, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 31WHO (ed.), Surveillance System for Attacks on Health Care (SSA), method and definitions page; the dashboard counts were not extracted. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNHCR (ed.), Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2025 (June 2026); the headline total of about 117.8 million was seen only in search-result summaries and is not used as a figure; the publication pages returned an access error. United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6UNHCR (ed.), Refugee Population Statistics Database, public API, global totals 2015 to 2025 (refugees, asylum-seekers, IDPs, returns, stateless people). United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7IDMC (ed.), Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 (full report, May 2026). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1OCHA (ed.), Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Trends in crises and needs: a world at breaking point (December 2025; people in urgent need, drivers, famine and Catastrophe counts, civilian fatalities). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 19DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, DT.ODA.ODAT.CD, net official development assistance received, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 15DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SI.POV.DDAY, poverty headcount ratio at USD 3.00 a day (2021 PPP), world, low-income and sub-Saharan Africa groups, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9United Nations (UN DESA, ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2026 (full report, PDF). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025 (data from 2015 to 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 4OCHA (ed.), Mid-Year Review of the Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Humanitarians in action in 2026: delivering against the odds (people targeted, prioritised and reached; contributions to end-May 2026). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3OCHA (ed.), Mid-Year Review of the Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Trends in crises and needs: civilians in the line of fire (June 2026). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back