Global Development and Humanitarian Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Development and Humanitarian Action Worldwide.

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the development and humanitarian baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. About 252 million by mid-2026, up from 239 million at the start of the year.¹³

   How many people need humanitarian help?Reported

2. Reported humanitarian funding fell to USD 28.3 billion in 2025, and DAC aid fell 23.1% in real terms.⁵⁸

   How much money is available?Reported

3. About one in six of those in need, January to May 2026.⁴

   How many are reached?Reported

4. 82.2 million internally displaced by the IDMC count; UNHCR counts differ by method.⁶⁷

   How many are displaced?Reported

5. Chronic hunger edged down to 645 million; acute hunger affected 266 million.¹⁰¹¹

   Is hunger falling?Reported

6. Not on the current path: 826 million in 2026 and about 9% still poor in 2030.⁹

   Is extreme poverty ending?Reported

7. Close to USD 1 trillion of interest in 2025, more than health or education in much of Africa.¹⁴

   What does debt add?Reported

8. A funding contraction that coincides with displacement and a food price shock. SCN-GS06-FND-01

   What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-DEVELOPMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003

In 2025, official development assistance from DAC members fell 23.1% in real terms to USD 174.3 billion, the largest annual fall on record.

The fall was broad but concentrated: 26 of 34 members reduced aid, and the five largest providers made up 95.7% of the fall. The United States alone made up 75.1% of it, and Germany became the largest provider for the first time. UN SDG reporting shows aid grants for poverty reduction were already back at 2015 levels in 2024, and net aid for basic health fell 12.4% that year⁸⁹.

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1OCHA (ed.), Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Trends in crises and needs: a world at breaking point (December 2025; people in urgent need, drivers, famine and Catastrophe counts, civilian fatalities). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 3OCHA (ed.), Mid-Year Review of the Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Trends in crises and needs: civilians in the line of fire (June 2026). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 8OECD (ed.), Preliminary official development assistance levels in 2025 (data note, April 2026; text read from the European Commission Knowledge for Policy record of the note, the OECD page returned an access error). Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 5OCHA (ed.), Financial Tracking Service, public API, funding flows by year (2022 to 2025), queried at access; recent years are incomplete. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 4OCHA (ed.), Mid-Year Review of the Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Humanitarians in action in 2026: delivering against the odds (people targeted, prioritised and reached; contributions to end-May 2026). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 9United Nations (UN DESA, ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2026 (full report, PDF). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025 (data from 2015 to 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 10FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (publication page with headline estimates). Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 11WFP (ed.), Global hunger crisis page citing the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises (266 million people in crisis levels of hunger or worse; 70% in fragile or conflict-affected countries). World Food Programme, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 7IDMC (ed.), Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 (full report, May 2026). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 14UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 6UNHCR (ed.), Refugee Population Statistics Database, public API, global totals 2015 to 2025 (refugees, asylum-seekers, IDPs, returns, stateless people). United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is development and humanitarian risk concentrated?
• Which couplings carry development and humanitarian shocks into other systems?
• Which development and humanitarian capabilities hold under compound stress?
• What must 2027 evidence measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Five coupling chapters
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The development and humanitarian-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems, read for their development and humanitarian content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   FIN → FOO → HLT

   Aid cuts and a price shock reach households as hunger and illness.

   Reported 2025 to 2026 aid cuts and food assistance phase-outs⁴⁸

2. 02

   CLI → WAT → HLT

   Storms and floods displace people and break safe water services.

   Reported 2025 storm displacement⁷

3. 03

   FIN → HLT

   Falling aid reduces health services, with modelled effects on child survival.

   Inferred health aid fall 2024 and 2025⁹²⁷²⁸

4. 04

   TRD → FIN → FOO

   Supply-chain disruption and higher prices raise the cost of aid and food.

   Reported 2026 supply-chain disruption²

5. 05

   FIN → DAT

   Cuts reach statistics and surveillance, so need is measured less well.

   Reported 2025 survey of statistical offices⁹

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1OCHA (ed.), Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Trends in crises and needs: a world at breaking point (December 2025; people in urgent need, drivers, famine and Catastrophe counts, civilian fatalities). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 9United Nations (UN DESA, ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2026 (full report, PDF). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025 (data from 2015 to 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 13UNDP and OPHI (eds.), Global Multidimensional Poverty Index 2026 (report page with headline findings). United Nations Development Programme, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 3OCHA (ed.), Mid-Year Review of the Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Trends in crises and needs: civilians in the line of fire (June 2026). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 8OECD (ed.), Preliminary official development assistance levels in 2025 (data note, April 2026; text read from the European Commission Knowledge for Policy record of the note, the OECD page returned an access error). Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 5OCHA (ed.), Financial Tracking Service, public API, funding flows by year (2022 to 2025), queried at access; recent years are incomplete. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 4OCHA (ed.), Mid-Year Review of the Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Humanitarians in action in 2026: delivering against the odds (people targeted, prioritised and reached; contributions to end-May 2026). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 7IDMC (ed.), Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 (full report, May 2026). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 10FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (publication page with headline estimates). Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 14UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 2OCHA (ed.), Humanitarian Action, Global Humanitarian Overview 2026 landing and at-a-glance pages (requirements and prioritised requirements at launch, plan list, mid-year appeal, supply-chain disruption note). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 27Cavalcanti, D.M. et al., Evaluating the impact of two decades of USAID interventions and projecting the effects of defunding on mortality up to 2030: a retrospective impact evaluation and forecasting analysis, The Lancet, 2025 (abstract read through Europe PMC). Elsevier. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 28Sibils, G.B. et al., Wealth redistribution policies to mitigate the impact of development assistance defunding: a retrospective evaluation and forecasting analysis up to 2030, The Lancet, 2026 (abstract read through Europe PMC). Elsevier. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-DEVELOPMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003

In 2025, official development assistance from DAC members fell 23.1% in real terms to USD 174.3 billion, the largest annual fall on record.

Implication

The fall was broad but concentrated: 26 of 34 members reduced aid, and the five largest providers made up 95.7% of the fall. The United States alone made up 75.1% of it, and Germany became the largest provider for the first time. UN SDG reporting shows aid grants for poverty reduction were already back at 2015 levels in 2024, and net aid for basic health fell 12.4% that year⁸⁹.

What would move it

The final OECD figures due in December 2026, the 2026 outturn against the OECD projection, and the pledges behind the 2027 Global Humanitarian Overview would each move this finding.

2.2Governance

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-DEVELOPMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-001

   About 239 million people needed urgent humanitarian assistance and protection at the start of 2026, and 252 million by mid-year, 13 million more than at launch; conflict remains the main driver.¹³

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-DEVELOPMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-004

   Humanitarian partners assisted 45.2 million of the 252 million people in need in the first five months of 2026, about one in six; 58% of those reached lived where needs were most severe, against 43% in 2025.⁴

3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-DEVELOPMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-005

   UNHCR counted 28.5 million refugees and 64.2 million internally displaced people under its series at the end of 2025, and IDMC counted 82.2 million internally displaced people; 4.4 million refugees and 10.3 million IDPs returned in the year.⁶⁷

2.3Finance

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-DEVELOPMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-002

   Humanitarian funding reported to FTS fell from USD 37.1 billion in 2024 to USD 28.3 billion in 2025, and contributions to the 2026 Global Humanitarian Overview reached USD 8.21 billion by the end of May, 69% above the same point in 2025.⁵⁴

2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-DEVELOPMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003

   Official development assistance from DAC members fell 23.1% in real terms in 2025 to USD 174.3 billion, 0.26% of their gross national income; the United States cut 56.9% and humanitarian assistance fell 35.8%.⁸⁹

3. ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-DEVELOPMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-007

   An estimated 826 million people, one in ten, lived below USD 3.00 a day in 2026, only three percentage points below 2015 (10.1% in 2024 on the World Bank series), and four in five of the extreme poor in 2030 are projected to live in sub-Saharan Africa or fragile and conflict-affected countries.⁹¹⁵

4. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-DEVELOPMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-009

   Developing countries paid close to USD 1 trillion in interest on public debt in 2025, and 65% of Africa’s population lived in 2023 in countries that spend more on interest than on health or education; external debt service of low- and middle-income countries was USD 1.29 trillion in 2024, down from USD 1.43 trillion in 2023.¹⁴²¹

2.4Food

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-DEVELOPMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-006

   An estimated 645 million people were chronically undernourished in 2025, and 266 million faced acute food insecurity (Crisis or worse); Catastrophe affected about 1.4 million people in 2025 on the GRFC count and 1.2 million on the OCHA count.^1011121

2.5Systemic

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-DEVELOPMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-008

   In 108 countries, 1.2 billion people (18.9%) lived in acute multidimensional poverty, the first rise since the index began in 2010; more than half of them are children.¹³

2. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-SECTOR-DEVELOPMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a funding contraction that coincides with a displacement surge and a food price shock in a highly indebted fragile economy. § scenario

2.6Health

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-DEVELOPMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-010

   4.9 million children died before their fifth birthday in 2024, nearly half in fragile and conflict-affected settings; the under-5 mortality rate was 68.8 per 1,000 in low-income countries against 37.4 worldwide.⁹¹⁶

2. EstimatedEQL 3NRF-SECTOR-DEVELOPMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-011

   One published model associates higher aid with 24% lower all-cause mortality and 33% lower under-5 mortality in 59 low-income and lower-middle-income countries; another projects more than 14 million additional deaths by 2030 if the 2025 US funding cuts are not reversed. These are modelled estimates, not counted deaths.²⁷²⁸

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 8OECD (ed.), Preliminary official development assistance levels in 2025 (data note, April 2026; text read from the European Commission Knowledge for Policy record of the note, the OECD page returned an access error). Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 9United Nations (UN DESA, ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2026 (full report, PDF). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025 (data from 2015 to 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 1OCHA (ed.), Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Trends in crises and needs: a world at breaking point (December 2025; people in urgent need, drivers, famine and Catastrophe counts, civilian fatalities). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 3OCHA (ed.), Mid-Year Review of the Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Trends in crises and needs: civilians in the line of fire (June 2026). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 4OCHA (ed.), Mid-Year Review of the Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Humanitarians in action in 2026: delivering against the odds (people targeted, prioritised and reached; contributions to end-May 2026). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 6UNHCR (ed.), Refugee Population Statistics Database, public API, global totals 2015 to 2025 (refugees, asylum-seekers, IDPs, returns, stateless people). United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 7IDMC (ed.), Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 (full report, May 2026). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 5OCHA (ed.), Financial Tracking Service, public API, funding flows by year (2022 to 2025), queried at access; recent years are incomplete. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 15DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SI.POV.DDAY, poverty headcount ratio at USD 3.00 a day (2021 PPP), world, low-income and sub-Saharan Africa groups, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 14UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 21DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, DT.DOD.DECT.CD and DT.TDS.DECT.CD, external debt stocks and debt service, low- and middle-income group, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 10FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (publication page with headline estimates). Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 11WFP (ed.), Global hunger crisis page citing the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises (266 million people in crisis levels of hunger or worse; 70% in fragile or conflict-affected countries). World Food Programme, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 12Food Security Information Network and Global Network Against Food Crises (eds.), 2026 Global Report on Food Crises, Mid-year update (August 2026). FSIN, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 13UNDP and OPHI (eds.), Global Multidimensional Poverty Index 2026 (report page with headline findings). United Nations Development Programme, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 16DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SH.DYN.MORT, under-5 mortality rate, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 27Cavalcanti, D.M. et al., Evaluating the impact of two decades of USAID interventions and projecting the effects of defunding on mortality up to 2030: a retrospective impact evaluation and forecasting analysis, The Lancet, 2025 (abstract read through Europe PMC). Elsevier. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 28Sibils, G.B. et al., Wealth redistribution policies to mitigate the impact of development assistance defunding: a retrospective evaluation and forecasting analysis up to 2030, The Lancet, 2026 (abstract read through Europe PMC). Elsevier. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through development and humanitarian, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries development and humanitarian risk into each domain.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on development and humanitarian, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 3OCHA (ed.), Mid-Year Review of the Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Trends in crises and needs: civilians in the line of fire (June 2026). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 5OCHA (ed.), Financial Tracking Service, public API, funding flows by year (2022 to 2025), queried at access; recent years are incomplete. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 8OECD (ed.), Preliminary official development assistance levels in 2025 (data note, April 2026; text read from the European Commission Knowledge for Policy record of the note, the OECD page returned an access error). Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 11WFP (ed.), Global hunger crisis page citing the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises (266 million people in crisis levels of hunger or worse; 70% in fragile or conflict-affected countries). World Food Programme, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 7IDMC (ed.), Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 (full report, May 2026). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 9United Nations (UN DESA, ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2026 (full report, PDF). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025 (data from 2015 to 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 14UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 23DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, people using safely managed drinking water services, low-income group, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 22DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS, access to electricity, low-income group, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 2OCHA (ed.), Humanitarian Action, Global Humanitarian Overview 2026 landing and at-a-glance pages (requirements and prioritised requirements at launch, plan list, mid-year appeal, supply-chain disruption note). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 24DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, IT.NET.USER.ZS, individuals using the internet, low-income group and world, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 29CHS Alliance, Group URD and the Sphere Association (eds.), Core Humanitarian Standard on Quality and Accountability, CHS 2024 version (standard page). CHS Alliance, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: OCHA (ed.), Humanitarian Reset (2025 to 2026 reform of the humanitarian system), cited from a mention in the opened Mid-Year Review [4]; the OCHA page was not found. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 27Cavalcanti, D.M. et al., Evaluating the impact of two decades of USAID interventions and projecting the effects of defunding on mortality up to 2030: a retrospective impact evaluation and forecasting analysis, The Lancet, 2025 (abstract read through Europe PMC). Elsevier. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 28Sibils, G.B. et al., Wealth redistribution policies to mitigate the impact of development assistance defunding: a retrospective evaluation and forecasting analysis up to 2030, The Lancet, 2026 (abstract read through Europe PMC). Elsevier. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS06-GOV-001

   Funding contraction against rising need

   Driver

   cuts in aid and humanitarian funding while need rises³⁵⁸

   Exposure

   people in plans with low funding; refugee food assistance

   Vulnerability

   dependence on a few large donors; partial service packages

   Capacity

   prioritisation; pooled funds; local organisations⁴

   Cascade

   FIN → FOO, HLT, WAT

   Horizon

   1 to 3 years

2. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS06-FOO-002

   Famine risk in conflict settings

   Driver

   conflict, access limits and aid cuts¹¹²

   Exposure

   Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia and the Gaza Strip, flagged for famine risk¹²

   Vulnerability

   low reach of assistance; displacement

   Capacity

   early warning; food and cash assistance; pooled funds⁴

   Cascade

   FOO → HLT, GOV

   Horizon

   1 to 2 years

3. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS06-FIN-003

   Debt service crowding out social spending

   Driver

   high interest costs and shrinking external finance¹⁴

   Exposure

   populations in countries that spend more on interest than on health or education

   Vulnerability

   thin fiscal space; dependence on aid

   Capacity

   debt restructuring and borrowing-cost work¹⁴

   Cascade

   FIN → HLT, FOO

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

4. InferredEQL 3RSK-GS06-HLT-004

   Loss of health-service and data capacity after aid cuts

   Driver

   reduced external funding for health and statistics⁹

   Exposure

   low-income and fragile settings with high child and maternal mortality⁹¹⁶¹⁸

   Vulnerability

   service disruption reported by about 70% of 108 WHO country offices⁹

   Capacity

   domestic financing; primary care; surveillance

   Cascade

   HLT → FOO, GOV

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for development and humanitarian at the global level.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 3OCHA (ed.), Mid-Year Review of the Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Trends in crises and needs: civilians in the line of fire (June 2026). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 5OCHA (ed.), Financial Tracking Service, public API, funding flows by year (2022 to 2025), queried at access; recent years are incomplete. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 8OECD (ed.), Preliminary official development assistance levels in 2025 (data note, April 2026; text read from the European Commission Knowledge for Policy record of the note, the OECD page returned an access error). Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 4OCHA (ed.), Mid-Year Review of the Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Humanitarians in action in 2026: delivering against the odds (people targeted, prioritised and reached; contributions to end-May 2026). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 1OCHA (ed.), Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Trends in crises and needs: a world at breaking point (December 2025; people in urgent need, drivers, famine and Catastrophe counts, civilian fatalities). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 12Food Security Information Network and Global Network Against Food Crises (eds.), 2026 Global Report on Food Crises, Mid-year update (August 2026). FSIN, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 14UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 9United Nations (UN DESA, ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2026 (full report, PDF). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025 (data from 2015 to 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 16DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SH.DYN.MORT, under-5 mortality rate, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 18DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SH.STA.MMRT, maternal mortality ratio (modelled estimate), API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 30United Nations General Assembly, Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, resolution A/RES/70/1 (full text, PDF). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 6UNHCR (ed.), Refugee Population Statistics Database, public API, global totals 2015 to 2025 (refugees, asylum-seekers, IDPs, returns, stateless people). United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 7IDMC (ed.), Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 (full report, May 2026). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 11WFP (ed.), Global hunger crisis page citing the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises (266 million people in crisis levels of hunger or worse; 70% in fragile or conflict-affected countries). World Food Programme, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 2OCHA (ed.), Humanitarian Action, Global Humanitarian Overview 2026 landing and at-a-glance pages (requirements and prioritised requirements at launch, plan list, mid-year appeal, supply-chain disruption note). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 29CHS Alliance, Group URD and the Sphere Association (eds.), Core Humanitarian Standard on Quality and Accountability, CHS 2024 version (standard page). CHS Alliance, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 32Humanitarian Outcomes (ed.), Aid Worker Security Database, project page and Figures at a Glance 2025 listing (statistics through 2024 announced; the figures themselves were not extracted). Humanitarian Outcomes, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 27Cavalcanti, D.M. et al., Evaluating the impact of two decades of USAID interventions and projecting the effects of defunding on mortality up to 2030: a retrospective impact evaluation and forecasting analysis, The Lancet, 2025 (abstract read through Europe PMC). Elsevier. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 28Sibils, G.B. et al., Wealth redistribution policies to mitigate the impact of development assistance defunding: a retrospective evaluation and forecasting analysis up to 2030, The Lancet, 2026 (abstract read through Europe PMC). Elsevier. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-GS06-FND-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

a further fall in humanitarian and development funding that coincides with a new displacement surge and a food price shock in an economy with heavy debt service

Analogues

2025 aid cuts; 2026 food assistance phase-outs; 2025 storm displacement⁴⁷⁸

Interventions

none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   FIN → GOV

   funding falls; plans are prioritised and service packages shrink

   2025 · 2026

2. 2

   GOV → FOO

   food assistance is cut for some refugees and displaced people

   2026

3. 3

   CLI → WAT

   a storm or conflict surge displaces people and breaks water services

   2025

4. 4

   WAT → HLT

   outbreak risk rises in crowded sites with fewer clinics

   2026

5. 5

   TRD → FOO

   prices of food and fuel rise and shrink the value of cash assistance

   2026

6. 6

   FIN → FIN

   interest costs squeeze the national budget that would backfill

   2025

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-GS06-FND-01 would travel through Global Development and Humanitarian’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Global Development and Humanitarian 2026, scenario SCN-GS06-FND-01 (2026); Global Development and Humanitarian 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 4OCHA (ed.), Mid-Year Review of the Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Humanitarians in action in 2026: delivering against the odds (people targeted, prioritised and reached; contributions to end-May 2026). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 7IDMC (ed.), Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 (full report, May 2026). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 8OECD (ed.), Preliminary official development assistance levels in 2025 (data note, April 2026; text read from the European Commission Knowledge for Policy record of the note, the OECD page returned an access error). Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for development and humanitarian. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 development and humanitarian readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• IN FORCE
• ADOPTED
• PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE
• PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers development and humanitarian assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about development and humanitarian action worldwide and its couplings?

Sources searched

agency flagships; statistics offices and databases; peer-reviewed mortality and compound-event literature; standards bodies

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 8OECD (ed.), Preliminary official development assistance levels in 2025 (data note, April 2026; text read from the European Commission Knowledge for Policy record of the note, the OECD page returned an access error). Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 14UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 20DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, BX.TRF.PWKR.CD.DT, personal remittances received, low- and middle-income group, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 30United Nations General Assembly, Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, resolution A/RES/70/1 (full text, PDF). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 29CHS Alliance, Group URD and the Sphere Association (eds.), Core Humanitarian Standard on Quality and Accountability, CHS 2024 version (standard page). CHS Alliance, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Sphere Association (ed.), The Sphere Handbook: Humanitarian Charter and Minimum Standards in Humanitarian Response, 2018 edition; the site returned an access error. Sphere, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations General Assembly, Global Compact on Refugees (2018), cited from memory; the UNHCR page returned an access error. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations General Assembly, Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030, resolution A/RES/69/283, cited from memory; the document pages returned a stub or an error. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations General Assembly, Outcome document of the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development (Seville, 2025), cited from memory; the document pages returned a stub or an error. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: OCHA (ed.), Humanitarian Reset (2025 to 2026 reform of the humanitarian system), cited from a mention in the opened Mid-Year Review [4]; the OCHA page was not found. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 4OCHA (ed.), Mid-Year Review of the Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Humanitarians in action in 2026: delivering against the odds (people targeted, prioritised and reached; contributions to end-May 2026). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 2OCHA (ed.), Humanitarian Action, Global Humanitarian Overview 2026 landing and at-a-glance pages (requirements and prioritised requirements at launch, plan list, mid-year appeal, supply-chain disruption note). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 27Cavalcanti, D.M. et al., Evaluating the impact of two decades of USAID interventions and projecting the effects of defunding on mortality up to 2030: a retrospective impact evaluation and forecasting analysis, The Lancet, 2025 (abstract read through Europe PMC). Elsevier. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 28Sibils, G.B. et al., Wealth redistribution policies to mitigate the impact of development assistance defunding: a retrospective evaluation and forecasting analysis up to 2030, The Lancet, 2026 (abstract read through Europe PMC). Elsevier. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zscheischler, J. et al., A typology of compound weather and climate events, Nature Reviews Earth and Environment 1, 333 to 347, 2020, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025; the 1.43 °C figure is taken from the opened SDG Report [9], not from WMO. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 1OCHA (ed.), Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Trends in crises and needs: a world at breaking point (December 2025; people in urgent need, drivers, famine and Catastrophe counts, civilian fatalities). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 3OCHA (ed.), Mid-Year Review of the Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Trends in crises and needs: civilians in the line of fire (June 2026). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 9United Nations (UN DESA, ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2026 (full report, PDF). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025 (data from 2015 to 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 10FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (publication page with headline estimates). Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 13UNDP and OPHI (eds.), Global Multidimensional Poverty Index 2026 (report page with headline findings). United Nations Development Programme, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNHCR (ed.), Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2025 (June 2026); the headline total of about 117.8 million was seen only in search-result summaries and is not used as a figure; the publication pages returned an access error. United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (eds.), Levels and Trends in Child Mortality, latest report; no figure is used. UNICEF, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 5OCHA (ed.), Financial Tracking Service, public API, funding flows by year (2022 to 2025), queried at access; recent years are incomplete. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 6UNHCR (ed.), Refugee Population Statistics Database, public API, global totals 2015 to 2025 (refugees, asylum-seekers, IDPs, returns, stateless people). United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 7IDMC (ed.), Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 (full report, May 2026). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 11WFP (ed.), Global hunger crisis page citing the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises (266 million people in crisis levels of hunger or worse; 70% in fragile or conflict-affected countries). World Food Programme, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28. 12Food Security Information Network and Global Network Against Food Crises (eds.), 2026 Global Report on Food Crises, Mid-year update (August 2026). FSIN, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29. 15DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SI.POV.DDAY, poverty headcount ratio at USD 3.00 a day (2021 PPP), world, low-income and sub-Saharan Africa groups, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30. 26DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS, prevalence of undernourishment, low-income group, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Bank (ed.), International Debt Report 2025; no figure is used. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, Famine Review Committee analysis of the Gaza Governorate (August 2025), cited from the opened OCHA text [1], not from the IPC document. IPC Global Support Unit, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF and World Bank (eds.), Debt Sustainability Framework for low-income countries, list of debt-distress ratings; the IMF site returned an access denial. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: ILO (ed.), World Social Protection Report 2024 to 2026; the 52.4% coverage figure is taken from the opened SDG Report [9], not from the ILO report. International Labour Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNESCO (ed.), Global Education Monitoring Report, latest edition; the out-of-school figure is taken from the opened SDG Report [9], not from UNESCO. United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36. 31WHO (ed.), Surveillance System for Attacks on Health Care (SSA), method and definitions page; the dashboard counts were not extracted. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
37. 32Humanitarian Outcomes (ed.), Aid Worker Security Database, project page and Figures at a Glance 2025 listing (statistics through 2024 announced; the figures themselves were not extracted). Humanitarian Outcomes, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. D-01

   How would a funding contraction that coincides with a displacement surge and a food price shock travel through food, health and water at once?

   INI-GS06-FND-01 · compound stress test; first output: concurrency analysis for six regions.

2. D-02

   Where does prioritised aid leave the largest gaps between people in need and people reached?

   INI-GS06-RCH-02 · reach and prioritisation; first output: gap table by sector and region.

3. D-03

   In which countries does debt service displace spending on health, education and social protection?

   INI-GS06-DBT-03 · debt and social spending; first output: overlay of debt service and service access.

4. D-04

   What happens to statistics, surveillance and health programmes when external funding falls?

   INI-GS06-DAT-04 · evidence systems under cuts; first output: register of affected data programmes.

5. D-05

   Which returns of refugees and displaced people are safe and lasting, and which are not?

   INI-GS06-RTN-05 · returns and protection; first output: returns evidence table.

6. D-06

   Can attacks on aid and health workers be counted on one common basis?

   To be admitted in 2027; first output: measurement note.

7. D-07

   How much of disaster displacement can anticipatory finance reach before the event?

   To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

8. D-08

   Which humanitarian and development capabilities have been tested under real shortfalls, and which are only planned?

   Development and humanitarian capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 development and humanitarian portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

The development and humanitarian edition reads national development chapters, regional displacement and hunger evidence and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed; the Canada and global chapters are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

1. 01

   National development chapters

   development and social-protection chapter of each national edition

   DRAFTED · further national baselines

2. 02

   Crisis and displacement evidence

   shared crises, borders and displacement corridors

   PLANNED · regional Baseline Editions

3. 03

   Development and humanitarian sector model

   the global system of need, aid and recovery

   v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

4. 04

   Global and strategic links

   GLB · SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience · SR-08 Health Security, One Health and Biosecurity

   PLANNED · strategic baselines

5. 05

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

6. 06

   Global Development and Humanitarian Report

   this series

   BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

7. 07

   Evidence and correction

   one graph, many projections

   OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the development and humanitarian candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-GS06-2027-01 · Compound stress Universe mission

Role spine

Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• annual publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 5OCHA (ed.), Financial Tracking Service, public API, funding flows by year (2022 to 2025), queried at access; recent years are incomplete. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 14UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 9United Nations (UN DESA, ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2026 (full report, PDF). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025 (data from 2015 to 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.back

8.1Development and water

Safe water and hygiene protect people in crisis from disease. Where services are weak or broken, displacement and crowding turn a water gap into a health emergency.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
• GS-04 Health and One Health
• GS-05 Finance and Economy
• GS-08 Disaster and Resilience
• SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience

8.2Development and energy

Energy decides whether clinics, schools and cold chains work in poor and fragile settings. It also decides what households burn to cook and keep warm.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
• GS-04 Health and One Health
• GS-05 Finance and Economy
• GS-08 Disaster and Resilience
• SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience

8.3Development and food

Hunger is both a cause and a measure of crisis. Chronic hunger edged down in 2025, acute hunger stayed high, and famine risk is concentrated where conflict and aid cuts meet.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
• GS-04 Health and One Health
• GS-05 Finance and Economy
• GS-08 Disaster and Resilience
• SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience

8.4Development and health

Child survival and maternal health are the clearest human outcomes of development and humanitarian work. They improve slowly, concentrate in fragile settings and depend on aid that is now falling.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
• GS-04 Health and One Health
• GS-05 Finance and Economy
• GS-08 Disaster and Resilience
• SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience

8.5Aid, debt, nature and extremes

Money and shocks decide how far the other four couplings hold. Aid fell, debt costs rose and storms displaced millions, while the link to nature is the least measured part of the picture.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
• GS-04 Health and One Health
• GS-05 Finance and Economy
• GS-08 Disaster and Resilience
• SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 23DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, people using safely managed drinking water services, low-income group, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 9United Nations (UN DESA, ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2026 (full report, PDF). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025 (data from 2015 to 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 4OCHA (ed.), Mid-Year Review of the Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Humanitarians in action in 2026: delivering against the odds (people targeted, prioritised and reached; contributions to end-May 2026). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 22DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS, access to electricity, low-income group, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 10FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (publication page with headline estimates). Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 11WFP (ed.), Global hunger crisis page citing the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises (266 million people in crisis levels of hunger or worse; 70% in fragile or conflict-affected countries). World Food Programme, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 12Food Security Information Network and Global Network Against Food Crises (eds.), 2026 Global Report on Food Crises, Mid-year update (August 2026). FSIN, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 1OCHA (ed.), Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Trends in crises and needs: a world at breaking point (December 2025; people in urgent need, drivers, famine and Catastrophe counts, civilian fatalities). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 18DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SH.STA.MMRT, maternal mortality ratio (modelled estimate), API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 16DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SH.DYN.MORT, under-5 mortality rate, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 17DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SH.IMM.IDPT, immunisation DPT, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 31WHO (ed.), Surveillance System for Attacks on Health Care (SSA), method and definitions page; the dashboard counts were not extracted. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 8OECD (ed.), Preliminary official development assistance levels in 2025 (data note, April 2026; text read from the European Commission Knowledge for Policy record of the note, the OECD page returned an access error). Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 14UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 7IDMC (ed.), Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 (full report, May 2026). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 21DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, DT.DOD.DECT.CD and DT.TDS.DECT.CD, external debt stocks and debt service, low- and middle-income group, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

A.1Methods

The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card, Development and Humanitarian Sector Model v0

Model ID

MDL-GS06-DEVELOPMENT · v0.1

Purpose

represent the global development and humanitarian system and its couplings to water, energy, food, health and nature

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID

DC-SECTOR-DEVELOPMENT-GLOBAL-2026-B0

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

46 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

the 2027 development and humanitarian annual cut

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in 2027

• FTS⁵: funding by sector and by recipient type
• OECD final ODA release⁸: aid by recipient group
• UNHCR Global Trends³³: headline total and definitions
• AWSD³² and WHO SSA³¹: 2025 counts of attacks

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition: internal displacement

Construct

number of people living in internal displacement at year end because of conflict, violence or disasters

Unit

people

Method

IDMC compilation of national, agency and partner data

Source

IDMC Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026⁷

Uncertainty

scope and coverage differ from the UNHCR series; some figures are modelled

Known limits

a year-end count; does not show repeated movements or return conditions

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 5OCHA (ed.), Financial Tracking Service, public API, funding flows by year (2022 to 2025), queried at access; recent years are incomplete. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 8OECD (ed.), Preliminary official development assistance levels in 2025 (data note, April 2026; text read from the European Commission Knowledge for Policy record of the note, the OECD page returned an access error). Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 32Humanitarian Outcomes (ed.), Aid Worker Security Database, project page and Figures at a Glance 2025 listing (statistics through 2024 announced; the figures themselves were not extracted). Humanitarian Outcomes, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 31WHO (ed.), Surveillance System for Attacks on Health Care (SSA), method and definitions page; the dashboard counts were not extracted. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNHCR (ed.), Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2025 (June 2026); the headline total of about 117.8 million was seen only in search-result summaries and is not used as a figure; the publication pages returned an access error. United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 6UNHCR (ed.), Refugee Population Statistics Database, public API, global totals 2015 to 2025 (refugees, asylum-seekers, IDPs, returns, stateless people). United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 7IDMC (ed.), Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 (full report, May 2026). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 1OCHA (ed.), Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Trends in crises and needs: a world at breaking point (December 2025; people in urgent need, drivers, famine and Catastrophe counts, civilian fatalities). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 19DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, DT.ODA.ODAT.CD, net official development assistance received, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 15DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SI.POV.DDAY, poverty headcount ratio at USD 3.00 a day (2021 PPP), world, low-income and sub-Saharan Africa groups, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 9United Nations (UN DESA, ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2026 (full report, PDF). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025 (data from 2015 to 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 4OCHA (ed.), Mid-Year Review of the Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Humanitarians in action in 2026: delivering against the odds (people targeted, prioritised and reached; contributions to end-May 2026). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 3OCHA (ed.), Mid-Year Review of the Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Trends in crises and needs: civilians in the line of fire (June 2026). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

B.1The indicator set

B.2Global source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• GOV
• FIN
• FOO
• HLT
• WAT
• ENE
• CLI
• DAT
• AIC
• TRD

B.3Regional reading: development and humanitarian action across ten clusters

Map plates follow with the regional Baseline Editions, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form and ranks no region.

B.4Crisis card: Sudan

• conflict
• displacement
• famine risk
• access

Systems in view

food, health, water, protection

Defining events

largest internal displacement crisis, 9.1 million IDPs at the end of 2025⁷; famine confirmed in parts in 2025¹

Couplings

GOV → FOO famine risk; WAT → HLT outbreaks; FIN → GOV funding

Capability evidence

monitoring and early warning exist; response reach is partial⁴¹²

Gaps

civilian deaths on a common basis; access

Agenda items

D-01 · D-02

B.5How countries appear in the development and humanitarian edition

Countries enter the development and humanitarian edition through the poverty, services and social-protection chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never ranked.

Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme

How to read a country card

• Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist
• Couplings and risk objects come from the country’s own national edition
• Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions
• Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

DC-SECTOR-DEVELOPMENT-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1OCHA (ed.), Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Trends in crises and needs: a world at breaking point (December 2025; people in urgent need, drivers, famine and Catastrophe counts, civilian fatalities). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 3OCHA (ed.), Mid-Year Review of the Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Trends in crises and needs: civilians in the line of fire (June 2026). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 4OCHA (ed.), Mid-Year Review of the Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Humanitarians in action in 2026: delivering against the odds (people targeted, prioritised and reached; contributions to end-May 2026). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 2OCHA (ed.), Humanitarian Action, Global Humanitarian Overview 2026 landing and at-a-glance pages (requirements and prioritised requirements at launch, plan list, mid-year appeal, supply-chain disruption note). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 5OCHA (ed.), Financial Tracking Service, public API, funding flows by year (2022 to 2025), queried at access; recent years are incomplete. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 8OECD (ed.), Preliminary official development assistance levels in 2025 (data note, April 2026; text read from the European Commission Knowledge for Policy record of the note, the OECD page returned an access error). Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 6UNHCR (ed.), Refugee Population Statistics Database, public API, global totals 2015 to 2025 (refugees, asylum-seekers, IDPs, returns, stateless people). United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 7IDMC (ed.), Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 (full report, May 2026). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 10FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (publication page with headline estimates). Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 11WFP (ed.), Global hunger crisis page citing the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises (266 million people in crisis levels of hunger or worse; 70% in fragile or conflict-affected countries). World Food Programme, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 9United Nations (UN DESA, ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2026 (full report, PDF). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025 (data from 2015 to 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 15DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SI.POV.DDAY, poverty headcount ratio at USD 3.00 a day (2021 PPP), world, low-income and sub-Saharan Africa groups, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 13UNDP and OPHI (eds.), Global Multidimensional Poverty Index 2026 (report page with headline findings). United Nations Development Programme, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 16DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SH.DYN.MORT, under-5 mortality rate, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 14UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 20DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, BX.TRF.PWKR.CD.DT, personal remittances received, low- and middle-income group, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 19DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, DT.ODA.ODAT.CD, net official development assistance received, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 25DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG, GDP per capita growth, low-income group, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 26DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS, prevalence of undernourishment, low-income group, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 12Food Security Information Network and Global Network Against Food Crises (eds.), 2026 Global Report on Food Crises, Mid-year update (August 2026). FSIN, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

C.146 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1OCHA (ed.), Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Trends in crises and needs: a world at breaking point (December 2025; people in urgent need, drivers, famine and Catastrophe counts, civilian fatalities). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
2. 2OCHA (ed.), Humanitarian Action, Global Humanitarian Overview 2026 landing and at-a-glance pages (requirements and prioritised requirements at launch, plan list, mid-year appeal, supply-chain disruption note). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
3. 3OCHA (ed.), Mid-Year Review of the Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Trends in crises and needs: civilians in the line of fire (June 2026). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
4. 4OCHA (ed.), Mid-Year Review of the Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Humanitarians in action in 2026: delivering against the odds (people targeted, prioritised and reached; contributions to end-May 2026). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
5. 5OCHA (ed.), Financial Tracking Service, public API, funding flows by year (2022 to 2025), queried at access; recent years are incomplete. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7
6. 6UNHCR (ed.), Refugee Population Statistics Database, public API, global totals 2015 to 2025 (refugees, asylum-seekers, IDPs, returns, stateless people). United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
7. 7IDMC (ed.), Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 (full report, May 2026). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
8. 8OECD (ed.), Preliminary official development assistance levels in 2025 (data note, April 2026; text read from the European Commission Knowledge for Policy record of the note, the OECD page returned an access error). Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
9. 9United Nations (UN DESA, ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2026 (full report, PDF). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025 (data from 2015 to 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
10. 10FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (publication page with headline estimates). Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
11. 11WFP (ed.), Global hunger crisis page citing the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises (266 million people in crisis levels of hunger or worse; 70% in fragile or conflict-affected countries). World Food Programme, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
12. 12Food Security Information Network and Global Network Against Food Crises (eds.), 2026 Global Report on Food Crises, Mid-year update (August 2026). FSIN, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
13. 13UNDP and OPHI (eds.), Global Multidimensional Poverty Index 2026 (report page with headline findings). United Nations Development Programme, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
14. 14UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
15. 15DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SI.POV.DDAY, poverty headcount ratio at USD 3.00 a day (2021 PPP), world, low-income and sub-Saharan Africa groups, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
16. 16DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SH.DYN.MORT, under-5 mortality rate, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 8
17. 17DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SH.IMM.IDPT, immunisation DPT, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
18. 18DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SH.STA.MMRT, maternal mortality ratio (modelled estimate), API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 8
19. 19DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, DT.ODA.ODAT.CD, net official development assistance received, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.
20. 20DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, BX.TRF.PWKR.CD.DT, personal remittances received, low- and middle-income group, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
21. 21DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, DT.DOD.DECT.CD and DT.TDS.DECT.CD, external debt stocks and debt service, low- and middle-income group, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 8
22. 22DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS, access to electricity, low-income group, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 8
23. 23DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, people using safely managed drinking water services, low-income group, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 8
24. 24DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, IT.NET.USER.ZS, individuals using the internet, low-income group and world, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3
25. 25DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG, GDP per capita growth, low-income group, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
26. 26DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS, prevalence of undernourishment, low-income group, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
27. 27Cavalcanti, D.M. et al., Evaluating the impact of two decades of USAID interventions and projecting the effects of defunding on mortality up to 2030: a retrospective impact evaluation and forecasting analysis, The Lancet, 2025 (abstract read through Europe PMC). Elsevier. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
28. 28Sibils, G.B. et al., Wealth redistribution policies to mitigate the impact of development assistance defunding: a retrospective evaluation and forecasting analysis up to 2030, The Lancet, 2026 (abstract read through Europe PMC). Elsevier. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
29. 29CHS Alliance, Group URD and the Sphere Association (eds.), Core Humanitarian Standard on Quality and Accountability, CHS 2024 version (standard page). CHS Alliance, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
30. 30United Nations General Assembly, Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, resolution A/RES/70/1 (full text, PDF). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
31. 31WHO (ed.), Surveillance System for Attacks on Health Care (SSA), method and definitions page; the dashboard counts were not extracted. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
32. 32Humanitarian Outcomes (ed.), Aid Worker Security Database, project page and Figures at a Glance 2025 listing (statistics through 2024 announced; the figures themselves were not extracted). Humanitarian Outcomes, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNHCR (ed.), Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2025 (June 2026); the headline total of about 117.8 million was seen only in search-result summaries and is not used as a figure; the publication pages returned an access error. United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (eds.), Levels and Trends in Child Mortality, latest report; no figure is used. UNICEF, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: OCHA (ed.), Humanitarian Reset (2025 to 2026 reform of the humanitarian system), cited from a mention in the opened Mid-Year Review [4]; the OCHA page was not found. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Sphere Association (ed.), The Sphere Handbook: Humanitarian Charter and Minimum Standards in Humanitarian Response, 2018 edition; the site returned an access error. Sphere, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations General Assembly, Outcome document of the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development (Seville, 2025), cited from memory; the document pages returned a stub or an error. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations General Assembly, Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030, resolution A/RES/69/283, cited from memory; the document pages returned a stub or an error. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations General Assembly, Global Compact on Refugees (2018), cited from memory; the UNHCR page returned an access error. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, Famine Review Committee analysis of the Gaza Governorate (August 2025), cited from the opened OCHA text [1], not from the IPC document. IPC Global Support Unit, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF and World Bank (eds.), Debt Sustainability Framework for low-income countries, list of debt-distress ratings; the IMF site returned an access denial. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: ILO (ed.), World Social Protection Report 2024 to 2026; the 52.4% coverage figure is taken from the opened SDG Report [9], not from the ILO report. International Labour Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNESCO (ed.), Global Education Monitoring Report, latest edition; the out-of-school figure is taken from the opened SDG Report [9], not from UNESCO. United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Bank (ed.), International Debt Report 2025; no figure is used. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
45. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zscheischler, J. et al., A typology of compound weather and climate events, Nature Reviews Earth and Environment 1, 333 to 347, 2020, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
46. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025; the 1.43 °C figure is taken from the opened SDG Report [9], not from WMO. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6

C.2Publication record

Colophon

Format

A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF

Typefaces

Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)

Design standard

Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII

Accessibility

tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure

Production

Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version