Readings from the other desks
The development and humanitarian baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Need is rising as support contracts
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Funding contraction, displacement surge and food price shock in a highly indebted fragile economy
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 6.1 The other desks’ editions of this subject
- 6.2 Three lenses
- 6.3 Standards, Academy and steward contributions
- 6.4 GCRI reading: the model card
- 6.5 Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
- 6.6 Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 development and humanitarian readiness pack
- 6.7 Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
- 6.8 Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject
Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.
| Desk | Edition | State | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Standards Progress | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit |
6.2Three lenses
One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports reading development and humanitarian action as the human-outcome layer of the WEFH+B system. Need is rising, funding is falling, and debt narrows what states can do. Evidence is strongest for need, displacement and hunger, and weakest for casualties among aid workers, attacks on health care and conflict deaths.
GOV-001 · FIN-003 · SYS-012
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people this is a ration cut, a clinic closure or a school that cannot open. The baseline asks that public debate keep the 252 million in view alongside the funding story, and that it treat returns and reach as outcomes to be checked.
GOV-004 · GOV-005 · FOO-006
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. Aid has contracted, interest costs are near USD 1 trillion and remittances now exceed aid several times over81420. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.
FIN-003 · FIN-009
NEXUS
Synthesis
Development and humanitarian action is well counted at the level of need, displacement and hunger and thinly counted at the level of attacks, casualties and local delivery. The 2027 programme should bind regional crisis evidence, test the compound shock, and map where cuts reach data systems.
SYS-012 · D-01 · D-04
6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions
How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for development and humanitarian. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.
| Quarter | Edition | Question | Boundary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | State and Agenda | What matters this year, and what is the starting position? | observed baseline stays distinct from planned work |
| Q2 | Evidence and Build | What new evidence and capability exist? | a configured capability is not a validated result |
| Q3 | Stress Test and Readiness | What do scenarios and tests show? | simulated loss or performance is not observed impact |
| Q4 | Annual Synthesis and Renewal | What changed in the year, and what renews? | release follows review, not event publicity deadlines |
| Steward or body | Role | Contribution route |
|---|---|---|
| The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada) | Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T) | science and practice communities · GCRI gateway |
| The Global Risks Forum (GRF) | leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M) | policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway |
| The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) | finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F) | finance and insurance · GRA gateway |
| Nexus Standards | preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods | Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI |
| Risk Academy | learning pathways tied to the agenda questions | Academy gateway · learning by review |
| Reports sector desks | development chapter inputs: GCRI evidence, GRA readiness, NXS standards, RA capability | sector editorial board |
Standards drafts used in this edition
- Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
- Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
- Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech
Standards calendar to watch
- Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
- Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
- Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition
6.4GCRI reading: the model card
GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology
6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.
Need rose from 239 to 252 million people in six months while aid and reported humanitarian funding fell. The gap is not a gap in goodwill alone. It is a gap in the structure of finance, and this edition asks where it widens first.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01
Need and money are moving apart
Partners reached about one in six people in need, with more of the help going to the most severe areas. Prioritisation is a rational response to scarcity, and it also means people with lower needs on paper are left without support.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02
Reach is not coverage
Interest costs of close to USD 1 trillion mean that governments in much of Africa pay more to creditors than to health or education. A humanitarian shock lands on states with little room to respond.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03
Debt is a humanitarian variable
Statistical offices, surveys and surveillance depend on external funding that is falling. What is not measured cannot be prioritised, so protecting evidence systems belongs inside the resilience agenda.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04
Measurement is part of resilience
6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 development and humanitarian readiness pack
The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.
| Item | Register | State at baseline | First 2027 entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| E1 | Development and Humanitarian risk state delta | baseline set by this edition | changes against the baseline |
| E2 | WEFH+B state delta | five global system readings set | indicator updates and freshness |
| E3 | Agenda and Portfolio movement | eight agenda items · 6 proposed objects | admission decisions |
| E4 | Federation delivery register | national chapters in preparation | national chapters |
| E5 | Consortium capability register | national consortia forming | first contributions |
| E6 | Leadership questions and challenges | none yet | first challenge log |
| E7 | Foundry technical state | national environments prepared | first federation cut |
| E8 | Publication candidates | twelve findings carried forward | PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions |
| E9 | Universe readiness | one candidate mission | admission and role spine |
| E10 | Correction register | none | first federation-wide cycle |
Publication dispositions
- Publish
- Hold
- Needs evidence
- Restricted
- Superseded
6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.
- IN FORCE
- ADOPTED
- PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE
- PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY
| Instrument | Body | Scope | Status | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transforming our world, the 2030 Agenda30 | UN General Assembly | global | ADOPTED 2015 | goals and targets |
| Core Humanitarian Standard on Quality and Accountability, 2024 version29 | CHS Alliance | global | PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY | accountability |
| Sphere Handbook36 | Sphere | global | PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY | minimum standards |
| Global Compact on Refugees39 | UN General Assembly | global | ADOPTED 2018 | responsibility-sharing |
| Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction38 | UN General Assembly | global | ADOPTED 2015 | disaster risk |
| Outcome of the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development37 | UN General Assembly | global | ADOPTED 2025 | finance |
| Humanitarian reset35 | OCHA and partners | global | REFORM UNDER WAY 2026 | coordination |
Changed since 2024
- OCHA reported consolidation of clusters under the humanitarian reset during 20264
- The Core Humanitarian Standard 2024 version followed a 2022 to 2023 revision with more than 4,000 contributors in 90 countries29
- The OECD reported the largest annual fall in aid on record, to be confirmed in December 20268
6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
The review behind this edition covers development and humanitarian assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.
Review protocol
- Question
- What does the published evidence establish about development and humanitarian action worldwide and its couplings?
- Sources searched
- agency flagships; statistics offices and databases; peer-reviewed mortality and compound-event literature; standards bodies
- Window
- releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
- Selection
- sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
- Next step
- systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027
| Reference | Type | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cavalcanti et al.27 | journal article | 2025 | supports | aid and mortality, USAID |
| Sibils et al.28 | journal article | 2026 | supports | aid and mortality, 59 countries |
| Zscheischler et al.45 | journal article | 2020 | framework | compound events |
| Transforming our world30 | UN resolution | 2015 | framework | goals and targets |
| State of the Global Climate 202546 | assessment | 2026 | context | temperature context |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Humanitarian Overview 202612 | OCHA | 2025 | supports | need and requirements |
| Mid-Year Review 202634 | OCHA | 2026 | supports | need, reach, funding |
| SDG Report 20269 | UN DESA | 2026 | supports | poverty, hunger, health |
| SOFI 202610 | FAO and partners | 2026 | supports | chronic hunger |
| Global MPI 202613 | UNDP and OPHI | 2026 | supports | multidimensional poverty |
| A World of Debt 202614 | UNCTAD | 2026 | supports | interest burden |
| Global Trends 202533 | UNHCR | 2026 | context | displacement headline |
| Levels and Trends in Child Mortality34 | UN IGME | 2025 | context | child deaths |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financial Tracking Service5 | OCHA | 2025 | supports | humanitarian funding |
| Population statistics6 | UNHCR | 2025 | supports | refugees, IDPs, returns |
| Global Report on Internal Displacement 20267 | IDMC | 2026 | supports | internal displacement |
| Preliminary ODA 20258 | OECD | 2026 | supports | aid levels |
| Global Report on Food Crises 20261112 | FSIN and partners | 2026 | supports | acute hunger |
| World Development Indicators15 to26 | World Bank | 2026 | supports | poverty, health, access, debt |
| International Debt Report 202544 | World Bank | 2025 | context | debt flows |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core Humanitarian Standard 202429 | CHS Alliance | 2024 | context | accountability |
| Sphere Handbook36 | Sphere | 2018 | context | minimum standards |
| Humanitarian reset35 | OCHA | 2026 | context | system reform |
| Seville outcome on financing for development37 | UN General Assembly | 2025 | context | finance |
| Sendai Framework38 | UN General Assembly | 2015 | context | disaster risk |
| Global Compact on Refugees39 | UN General Assembly | 2018 | context | refugee responsibility-sharing |
| Famine Review Committee analysis40 | IPC | 2025 | context | famine classification |
| Debt sustainability framework41 | IMF and World Bank | 2026 | context | debt distress |
| World Social Protection Report42 | ILO | 2024 | context | coverage |
| Global Education Monitoring Report43 | UNESCO | 2025 | context | schooling |
| Attacks on health care31; aid worker data32 | WHO; Humanitarian Outcomes | 2026 | context | attacks and casualties |
Where the evidence agrees
Where it is unsettled
- How many people are internally displaced: UNHCR counts 64.2 million and IDMC 82.2 million, on different scopes67
- How many people faced Catastrophe in 2025: about 1.4 million on the GRFC count and 1.2 million on the OCHA count121
- How many people live in food insecurity: the SDG Report gives 2.1 billion in its goal text and 2.3 billion in its foreword9
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 8OECD (ed.), Preliminary official development assistance levels in 2025 (data note, April 2026; text read from the European Commission Knowledge for Policy record of the note, the OECD page returned an access error). Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 20DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, BX.TRF.PWKR.CD.DT, personal remittances received, low- and middle-income group, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 30United Nations General Assembly, Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, resolution A/RES/70/1 (full text, PDF). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 29CHS Alliance, Group URD and the Sphere Association (eds.), Core Humanitarian Standard on Quality and Accountability, CHS 2024 version (standard page). CHS Alliance, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Sphere Association (ed.), The Sphere Handbook: Humanitarian Charter and Minimum Standards in Humanitarian Response, 2018 edition; the site returned an access error. Sphere, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations General Assembly, Global Compact on Refugees (2018), cited from memory; the UNHCR page returned an access error. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations General Assembly, Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030, resolution A/RES/69/283, cited from memory; the document pages returned a stub or an error. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations General Assembly, Outcome document of the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development (Seville, 2025), cited from memory; the document pages returned a stub or an error. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: OCHA (ed.), Humanitarian Reset (2025 to 2026 reform of the humanitarian system), cited from a mention in the opened Mid-Year Review [4]; the OCHA page was not found. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 4OCHA (ed.), Mid-Year Review of the Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Humanitarians in action in 2026: delivering against the odds (people targeted, prioritised and reached; contributions to end-May 2026). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 2OCHA (ed.), Humanitarian Action, Global Humanitarian Overview 2026 landing and at-a-glance pages (requirements and prioritised requirements at launch, plan list, mid-year appeal, supply-chain disruption note). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 27Cavalcanti, D.M. et al., Evaluating the impact of two decades of USAID interventions and projecting the effects of defunding on mortality up to 2030: a retrospective impact evaluation and forecasting analysis, The Lancet, 2025 (abstract read through Europe PMC). Elsevier. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 28Sibils, G.B. et al., Wealth redistribution policies to mitigate the impact of development assistance defunding: a retrospective evaluation and forecasting analysis up to 2030, The Lancet, 2026 (abstract read through Europe PMC). Elsevier. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zscheischler, J. et al., A typology of compound weather and climate events, Nature Reviews Earth and Environment 1, 333 to 347, 2020, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025; the 1.43 °C figure is taken from the opened SDG Report [9], not from WMO. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1OCHA (ed.), Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Trends in crises and needs: a world at breaking point (December 2025; people in urgent need, drivers, famine and Catastrophe counts, civilian fatalities). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3OCHA (ed.), Mid-Year Review of the Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Trends in crises and needs: civilians in the line of fire (June 2026). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9United Nations (UN DESA, ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2026 (full report, PDF). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025 (data from 2015 to 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 10FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (publication page with headline estimates). Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 13UNDP and OPHI (eds.), Global Multidimensional Poverty Index 2026 (report page with headline findings). United Nations Development Programme, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNHCR (ed.), Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2025 (June 2026); the headline total of about 117.8 million was seen only in search-result summaries and is not used as a figure; the publication pages returned an access error. United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (eds.), Levels and Trends in Child Mortality, latest report; no figure is used. UNICEF, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5OCHA (ed.), Financial Tracking Service, public API, funding flows by year (2022 to 2025), queried at access; recent years are incomplete. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6UNHCR (ed.), Refugee Population Statistics Database, public API, global totals 2015 to 2025 (refugees, asylum-seekers, IDPs, returns, stateless people). United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7IDMC (ed.), Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 (full report, May 2026). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 11WFP (ed.), Global hunger crisis page citing the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises (266 million people in crisis levels of hunger or worse; 70% in fragile or conflict-affected countries). World Food Programme, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 12Food Security Information Network and Global Network Against Food Crises (eds.), 2026 Global Report on Food Crises, Mid-year update (August 2026). FSIN, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 15DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SI.POV.DDAY, poverty headcount ratio at USD 3.00 a day (2021 PPP), world, low-income and sub-Saharan Africa groups, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 26DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS, prevalence of undernourishment, low-income group, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Bank (ed.), International Debt Report 2025; no figure is used. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, Famine Review Committee analysis of the Gaza Governorate (August 2025), cited from the opened OCHA text [1], not from the IPC document. IPC Global Support Unit, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF and World Bank (eds.), Debt Sustainability Framework for low-income countries, list of debt-distress ratings; the IMF site returned an access denial. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: ILO (ed.), World Social Protection Report 2024 to 2026; the 52.4% coverage figure is taken from the opened SDG Report [9], not from the ILO report. International Labour Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNESCO (ed.), Global Education Monitoring Report, latest edition; the out-of-school figure is taken from the opened SDG Report [9], not from UNESCO. United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 31WHO (ed.), Surveillance System for Attacks on Health Care (SSA), method and definitions page; the dashboard counts were not extracted. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 32Humanitarian Outcomes (ed.), Aid Worker Security Database, project page and Figures at a Glance 2025 listing (statistics through 2024 announced; the figures themselves were not extracted). Humanitarian Outcomes, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back