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Systems and sectors at baseline

6 min read0 figures2 tables15 notesNR-SECTOR-DEVELOPMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Need is rising as support contracts
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Funding contraction, displacement surge and food price shock in a highly indebted fragile economy
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

GOV · Need

People in urgent need of humanitarian assistance

252million

up 13 million since December 2025.

Reported2026OCHA3

FIN · Funding

Humanitarian funding reported to FTS

28.3USD billion

from 37.1 in 2024; incomplete.

Reported2025FTS5

FIN · Aid

Official development assistance, DAC members

174.3USD billion

down 23.1% in real terms; preliminary.

Reported2025OECD8

FOO · Hunger

People in acute food insecurity (Crisis or worse)

266million

across 47 countries and territories.

Reported2025GRFC11

GOV · Displacement

People living in internal displacement

82.2million

first fall in a decade; 83.5 million in 2024.

Reported2025IDMC7

SYS · Cross-system

People below USD 3.00 a day (2021 PPP)

826million

UN estimate for 2026; one in ten people.

Reported2026SDG Report9

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through development and humanitarian, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries development and humanitarian risk into each domain.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATSafely managed drinking water reaches 33.0% of people in low-income countries against 74% worldwide; crises break the services that exist.WAT → HLTReported EQL 3
ENEElectricity reaches 48.8% of people in low-income countries; schools and clinics in the least developed countries often lack it.ENE → HLTReported EQL 3
FOO645 million chronically undernourished; 266 million in acute food insecurity; famine risk flagged in four contexts.FOO → HLTReported EQL 5
HLT4.9 million child deaths in 2024; immunisation and maternal outcomes lag in low-income and fragile settings.the core outcomeReported EQL 5
BIOLivelihoods, fisheries and fuel depend on ecosystems; the evidence for crisis settings is not consolidated here.BIO → FOOExpert input EQL 2
CLIStorms drove 17.9 million movements in 2025 and disaster displacement totalled 29.9 million; 2025 was 1.43 °C above pre-industrial levels.CLI → HLTReported EQL 4
INFSchools, clinics and shelters lack basic services in the least developed countries; attacks on civilian infrastructure are a feature of current conflicts.INF → HLTReported EQL 4
FINAid, remittances and debt service move together: aid fell, remittances to low- and middle-income countries rose, interest costs reached close to USD 1 trillion.FIN → HLTReported EQL 5
DATFewer than a third of SDG indicators in several areas have enough trend data; aid cuts now reach national statistical programmes.DAT → FINReported EQL 3
AICInternet use is 23.4% in low-income countries against 73.6% worldwide; use of algorithms in targeting and in aid is not consolidated.AIC → HLTInferred EQL 3
MINMineral supply and extraction in fragile settings is not consolidated here for the development and humanitarian reading.MIN → FINExpert input EQL 2
TRDRemittances to low- and middle-income countries reached USD 703.6 billion in 2025; the Middle East conflict disrupted humanitarian supply chains.TRD → FINReported EQL 4

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on development and humanitarian, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemneed, aid and debt meet in the same households3814funding, displacement and food shockPARTIAL
GS-01Watersafely managed drinking water at 33.0% in low-income countries23outbreak in a displacement sitePARTIAL
GS-02Energyelectricity at 48.8% in low-income countries22fuel and clinic powerPARTIAL
GS-03Food and Agrifood Systems266 million in acute food insecurity11price shock and aid cutsGOOD
GS-04Health and One Health4.9 million under-5 deaths in 20249service loss after aid cutsGOOD
GS-05Finance and EconomyDAC aid down 23.1% in real terms8debt and aid squeezeGOOD
GS-06Development and Humanitarian252 million in urgent need3compound stressGOOD
GS-07Climate and Earth Systems29.9 million disaster displacements in 20257storm seasonPARTIAL
GS-08Disaster and Resiliencedisaster displacement and anticipatory finance7concurrent crisesPARTIAL
GS-09Infrastructure, Transport and Logisticshumanitarian supply chains disrupted in 20262access and routesTHIN
GS-10Cities and Urban Systemsslums and housing pressure in growing cities9urban displacementTHIN
GS-11Biodiversity and Ecosystemslivelihood dependence on ecosystemsland and fisheries pressureTHIN
GS-12Earth Observation and Planetary Intelligencesatellite data for needs and accesscontinuity of dataTHIN
GS-13Cyber and Digital Systemsinternet use at 23.4% in low-income countries24digital exclusionPARTIAL
GS-14Policy, Institutions and GovernanceCore Humanitarian Standard and the 2026 reset2935reform and fundingPARTIAL
GS-15Science and Engineering Frontiermortality modelling of aid effects2728attribution and dataPARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 3OCHA (ed.), Mid-Year Review of the Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Trends in crises and needs: civilians in the line of fire (June 2026). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 5OCHA (ed.), Financial Tracking Service, public API, funding flows by year (2022 to 2025), queried at access; recent years are incomplete. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 8OECD (ed.), Preliminary official development assistance levels in 2025 (data note, April 2026; text read from the European Commission Knowledge for Policy record of the note, the OECD page returned an access error). Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 11WFP (ed.), Global hunger crisis page citing the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises (266 million people in crisis levels of hunger or worse; 70% in fragile or conflict-affected countries). World Food Programme, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 7IDMC (ed.), Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 (full report, May 2026). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 9United Nations (UN DESA, ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2026 (full report, PDF). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025 (data from 2015 to 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 14UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 23DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, people using safely managed drinking water services, low-income group, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 22DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS, access to electricity, low-income group, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 2OCHA (ed.), Humanitarian Action, Global Humanitarian Overview 2026 landing and at-a-glance pages (requirements and prioritised requirements at launch, plan list, mid-year appeal, supply-chain disruption note). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 24DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, IT.NET.USER.ZS, individuals using the internet, low-income group and world, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 29CHS Alliance, Group URD and the Sphere Association (eds.), Core Humanitarian Standard on Quality and Accountability, CHS 2024 version (standard page). CHS Alliance, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: OCHA (ed.), Humanitarian Reset (2025 to 2026 reform of the humanitarian system), cited from a mention in the opened Mid-Year Review [4]; the OCHA page was not found. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 27Cavalcanti, D.M. et al., Evaluating the impact of two decades of USAID interventions and projecting the effects of defunding on mortality up to 2030: a retrospective impact evaluation and forecasting analysis, The Lancet, 2025 (abstract read through Europe PMC). Elsevier. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 28Sibils, G.B. et al., Wealth redistribution policies to mitigate the impact of development assistance defunding: a retrospective evaluation and forecasting analysis up to 2030, The Lancet, 2026 (abstract read through Europe PMC). Elsevier. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Global Development and Humanitarian Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Development and Humanitarian Action Worldwide. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-DEVELOPMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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