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Risks and capability

Four development and humanitarian risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

5 min read0 figures1 table19 notesNR-SECTOR-DEVELOPMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Need is rising as support contracts
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5Funding contraction, displacement surge and food price shock in a highly indebted fragile economy
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS06-GOV-001

    Funding contraction against rising need

    Driver
    cuts in aid and humanitarian funding while need rises358
    Exposure
    people in plans with low funding; refugee food assistance
    Vulnerability
    dependence on a few large donors; partial service packages
    Capacity
    prioritisation; pooled funds; local organisations4
    Cascade
    FIN → FOO, HLT, WAT
    Horizon
    1 to 3 years

  2. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS06-FOO-002

    Famine risk in conflict settings

    Driver
    conflict, access limits and aid cuts112
    Exposure
    Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia and the Gaza Strip, flagged for famine risk12
    Vulnerability
    low reach of assistance; displacement
    Capacity
    early warning; food and cash assistance; pooled funds4
    Cascade
    FOO → HLT, GOV
    Horizon
    1 to 2 years

  3. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS06-FIN-003

    Debt service crowding out social spending

    Driver
    high interest costs and shrinking external finance14
    Exposure
    populations in countries that spend more on interest than on health or education
    Vulnerability
    thin fiscal space; dependence on aid
    Capacity
    debt restructuring and borrowing-cost work14
    Cascade
    FIN → HLT, FOO
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

  4. InferredEQL 3RSK-GS06-HLT-004

    Loss of health-service and data capacity after aid cuts

    Driver
    reduced external funding for health and statistics9
    Exposure
    low-income and fragile settings with high child and maternal mortality91618
    Vulnerability
    service disruption reported by about 70% of 108 WHO country offices9
    Capacity
    domestic financing; primary care; surveillance
    Cascade
    HLT → FOO, GOV
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for development and humanitarian at the global level.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationEXISTSprotection norms and conflict-prevention instruments exist; compliance is contested130
Monitoring and observationADEQUATEannual series for need, displacement and hunger16711
Early warningEXISTSjoint hunger early warning; famine risk flagged for four contexts12
Preparedness and planningEXISTScountry and regional response plans for 20262
Redundancy and reservesLISTEDpooled funds exist; reserve stocks and surge capacity not consolidated4
ResponseDEMONSTRATED45.2 million people assisted in the first five months of 20264
Continuity of critical servicesLISTEDservice continuity in crises documented case by case4
RecoveryEXISTS4.4 million refugees and 10.3 million IDPs returned in 2025, many under unsafe conditions69
AdaptationLISTEDanticipatory action and resilience work not consolidated here
Social protectionEXISTS52.4% of people covered by at least one benefit in 2023; 3.8 billion not covered9
Finance and insuranceEXISTShumanitarian and development finance exist and are contracting58
Institutional coordinationEXISTScluster consolidation under the 2026 reset; Core Humanitarian Standard429
Technical infrastructureLISTEDbasic services lacking in many fragile settings9
WorkforceLISTEDaid worker security data exist; 2025 figures not bound32
Research capacityADEQUATEpeer-reviewed mortality modelling; data gaps in statistical offices27289
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 3OCHA (ed.), Mid-Year Review of the Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Trends in crises and needs: civilians in the line of fire (June 2026). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 5OCHA (ed.), Financial Tracking Service, public API, funding flows by year (2022 to 2025), queried at access; recent years are incomplete. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 8OECD (ed.), Preliminary official development assistance levels in 2025 (data note, April 2026; text read from the European Commission Knowledge for Policy record of the note, the OECD page returned an access error). Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 4OCHA (ed.), Mid-Year Review of the Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Humanitarians in action in 2026: delivering against the odds (people targeted, prioritised and reached; contributions to end-May 2026). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 1OCHA (ed.), Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Trends in crises and needs: a world at breaking point (December 2025; people in urgent need, drivers, famine and Catastrophe counts, civilian fatalities). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 12Food Security Information Network and Global Network Against Food Crises (eds.), 2026 Global Report on Food Crises, Mid-year update (August 2026). FSIN, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 14UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 9United Nations (UN DESA, ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2026 (full report, PDF). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025 (data from 2015 to 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 16DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SH.DYN.MORT, under-5 mortality rate, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 18DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SH.STA.MMRT, maternal mortality ratio (modelled estimate), API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 30United Nations General Assembly, Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, resolution A/RES/70/1 (full text, PDF). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 6UNHCR (ed.), Refugee Population Statistics Database, public API, global totals 2015 to 2025 (refugees, asylum-seekers, IDPs, returns, stateless people). United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 7IDMC (ed.), Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 (full report, May 2026). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 11WFP (ed.), Global hunger crisis page citing the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises (266 million people in crisis levels of hunger or worse; 70% in fragile or conflict-affected countries). World Food Programme, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 2OCHA (ed.), Humanitarian Action, Global Humanitarian Overview 2026 landing and at-a-glance pages (requirements and prioritised requirements at launch, plan list, mid-year appeal, supply-chain disruption note). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 29CHS Alliance, Group URD and the Sphere Association (eds.), Core Humanitarian Standard on Quality and Accountability, CHS 2024 version (standard page). CHS Alliance, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 32Humanitarian Outcomes (ed.), Aid Worker Security Database, project page and Figures at a Glance 2025 listing (statistics through 2024 announced; the figures themselves were not extracted). Humanitarian Outcomes, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 27Cavalcanti, D.M. et al., Evaluating the impact of two decades of USAID interventions and projecting the effects of defunding on mortality up to 2030: a retrospective impact evaluation and forecasting analysis, The Lancet, 2025 (abstract read through Europe PMC). Elsevier. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 28Sibils, G.B. et al., Wealth redistribution policies to mitigate the impact of development assistance defunding: a retrospective evaluation and forecasting analysis up to 2030, The Lancet, 2026 (abstract read through Europe PMC). Elsevier. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In Global Development and Humanitarian Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Development and Humanitarian Action Worldwide. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-DEVELOPMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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