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Funding contraction, displacement surge and food price shock in a highly indebted fragile economy

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

2 min read0 figures0 tables3 notesNR-SECTOR-DEVELOPMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Need is rising as support contracts
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Funding contraction, displacement surge and food price shock in a highly indebted fragile economy
    1. 5.1 Assumptions
    2. 5.2 The cascade, step by step
    3. 5.3 The scenario as a table of steps
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-GS06-FND-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
a further fall in humanitarian and development funding that coincides with a new displacement surge and a food price shock in an economy with heavy debt service
Analogues
2025 aid cuts; 2026 food assistance phase-outs; 2025 storm displacement478
Interventions
none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

  1. 1

    FIN → GOV

    funding falls; plans are prioritised and service packages shrink

    2025 · 2026

  2. 2

    GOV → FOO

    food assistance is cut for some refugees and displaced people

    2026

  3. 3

    CLI → WAT

    a storm or conflict surge displaces people and breaks water services

    2025

  4. 4

    WAT → HLT

    outbreak risk rises in crowded sites with fewer clinics

    2026

  5. 5

    TRD → FOO

    prices of food and fuel rise and shrink the value of cash assistance

    2026

  6. 6

    FIN → FIN

    interest costs squeeze the national budget that would backfill

    2025

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-GS06-FND-01 would travel through Global Development and Humanitarian’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Finance to governanceFunding falls; plans are prioritised and service packages shrink. Analogue or source: 2025 · 2026.Edition GS-06, scenario SCN-GS06-FND-01, step 1
02 Governance to foodFood assistance is cut for some refugees and displaced people. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition GS-06, scenario SCN-GS06-FND-01, step 2
03 Climate to waterA storm or conflict surge displaces people and breaks water services. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition GS-06, scenario SCN-GS06-FND-01, step 3
04 Water to healthOutbreak risk rises in crowded sites with fewer clinics. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition GS-06, scenario SCN-GS06-FND-01, step 4
05 Trade to foodPrices of food and fuel rise and shrink the value of cash assistance. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition GS-06, scenario SCN-GS06-FND-01, step 5
06 Finance to financeInterest costs squeeze the national budget that would backfill. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition GS-06, scenario SCN-GS06-FND-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Global Development and Humanitarian 2026, scenario SCN-GS06-FND-01 (2026); Global Development and Humanitarian 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 4OCHA (ed.), Mid-Year Review of the Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Humanitarians in action in 2026: delivering against the odds (people targeted, prioritised and reached; contributions to end-May 2026). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 7IDMC (ed.), Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 (full report, May 2026). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 8OECD (ed.), Preliminary official development assistance levels in 2025 (data note, April 2026; text read from the European Commission Knowledge for Policy record of the note, the OECD page returned an access error). Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 5: Funding contraction, displacement surge and food price shock in a highly indebted fragile economy. In Global Development and Humanitarian Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Development and Humanitarian Action Worldwide. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-DEVELOPMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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The sectors behind Global Development and Humanitarian.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

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Food and its partners

Food gives nutrition to health (0.7), land conversion to biodiversity (0.6) and withdrawals and runoff to water (0.3).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Food → Biodiversity · land conversion0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Water → Biodiversity · environmental flows0.6
  • Food → Health · nutrition0.7
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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