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Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

8 min read0 figures5 tables16 notesNR-SECTOR-DEVELOPMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Need is rising as support contracts
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Funding contraction, displacement surge and food price shock in a highly indebted fragile economy
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Development and water
    2. 8.2 Development and energy
    3. 8.3 Development and food
    4. 8.4 Development and health
    5. 8.5 Aid, debt, nature and extremes
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Development and water

Safe water and hygiene protect people in crisis from disease. Where services are weak or broken, displacement and crowding turn a water gap into a health emergency.

33.0%

people in low-income countries using safely managed drinking water, 202423

74%

global coverage of safely managed drinking water, 20249

33 to 38points

gap between conflict-affected and stable countries on water, sanitation and hygiene9

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Drinking waterlow-income countries 33.0% against 74% worldwide in 2024239Reported
Conflict settingsconflict-affected countries lag stable ones by 33 to 38 percentage points on water, sanitation and hygiene9Reported
Outbreak responsepartners expanded hygiene services and detection to contain an outbreak in Borno State, Nigeria, in 20264Reported
Displacement siteswater and sanitation need in sites not consolidated here9Expert input

Couplings

  • WAT → HLT outbreaks and hygiene
  • CLI → WAT → HLT flood displacement
  • FIN → WAT service funding

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • service levels in displacement sites
  • water cost to households in crisis

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-05 Finance and Economy
  • GS-08 Disaster and Resilience
  • SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience

8.2Development and energy

Energy decides whether clinics, schools and cold chains work in poor and fragile settings. It also decides what households burn to cook and keep warm.

48.8%

people with electricity in low-income countries, 202422

>50%

of primary schools in least developed countries without electricity9

780 000people

received winter energy assistance in the first half of 20264

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Household accesselectricity reaches 48.8% of people in low-income countries in 202422Reported
Schoolsmore than half of primary schools in least developed countries lack electricity9Reported
Cookingaccess to clean cooking fuels is 22% in sub-Saharan Africa against 75% worldwide in 20249Reported
Humanitarian operationsfuel and power costs for response not consolidated here4Expert input

Couplings

  • ENE → HLT clinics and cooking
  • ENE → FOO cold chains
  • FIN → ENE assistance for energy costs

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • power in health facilities in crisis settings
  • fuel cost of humanitarian operations

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-05 Finance and Economy
  • GS-08 Disaster and Resilience
  • SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience

8.3Development and food

Hunger is both a cause and a measure of crisis. Chronic hunger edged down in 2025, acute hunger stayed high, and famine risk is concentrated where conflict and aid cuts meet.

645million

chronically undernourished, 202510

266million

in acute food insecurity, Crisis or worse, 202511

327 000people

expected in Catastrophe in 2026, five countries and territories12

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Chronic hunger645 million in 2025, 7.8% of people, below the 2015 level of 8.0%109Reported
Acute hunger266 million across 47 countries and territories; 70% live in fragile or conflict-affected countries11Reported
Catastropheabout 1.4 million people in 2025 on the GRFC count, 1.2 million on the OCHA count121Reported
Assistance cutsmore than one million refugees in Uganda phased out of food assistance in 20264Reported

Couplings

  • FOO → HLT malnutrition
  • FIN → FOO assistance and prices
  • GOV → FOO conflict and access

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • coverage of analysed countries in hunger reports
  • effect of cash cuts on diets

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-05 Finance and Economy
  • GS-08 Disaster and Resilience
  • SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience

8.4Development and health

Child survival and maternal health are the clearest human outcomes of development and humanitarian work. They improve slowly, concentrate in fragile settings and depend on aid that is now falling.

4.9million

children died before age five, 20249

197per 100 000

maternal mortality ratio, 202318

70%

of 108 WHO country offices reported service disruption after aid reductions, 20259

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Child survivalunder-5 mortality 68.8 per 1,000 in low-income countries against 37.4 worldwide, 202416Reported
Immunisationthree-dose DPT coverage 70.2% in low-income countries against 84.8% worldwide, 202417Reported
Health aidnet aid for medical research and basic health fell 12.4% to USD 11.4 billion in 20249Reported
Attacks on health carecounts for 2025 and 2026 not bound; WHO records attacks by certainty level31NOT BOUND

Couplings

  • FOO → HLT malnutrition
  • FIN → HLT health aid
  • WAT → HLT outbreaks

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • attacks on health care in 2025 and 2026
  • service loss after aid cuts, measured

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-05 Finance and Economy
  • GS-08 Disaster and Resilience
  • SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience

8.5Aid, debt, nature and extremes

Money and shocks decide how far the other four couplings hold. Aid fell, debt costs rose and storms displaced millions, while the link to nature is the least measured part of the picture.

174.3USD billion

DAC official development assistance, 2025, preliminary8

≈1USD trillion

interest paid on public debt in developing countries, 202514

29.9million

disaster displacements, 20257

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Aiddown 23.1% in real terms in 2025; humanitarian assistance down 35.8%8Reported
Debtexternal debt service of low- and middle-income countries USD 1.29 trillion in 2024 against USD 1.43 trillion in 202321Reported
Disaster displacement29.9 million movements in 2025, 35% below 2024 and 13% above the decade average; storms 17.9 million7Reported
Natureecosystem dependence of crisis-affected livelihoods not consolidated here7Expert input

Couplings

  • FIN → HLT, FOO aid and debt
  • CLI → WAT → HLT storms and floods
  • BIO → FOO fisheries and land

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • ecosystem effects of displacement and fuel use
  • disaster displacement finance reaching people before the event

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-05 Finance and Economy
  • GS-08 Disaster and Resilience
  • SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 23DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, people using safely managed drinking water services, low-income group, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 9United Nations (UN DESA, ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2026 (full report, PDF). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025 (data from 2015 to 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 4OCHA (ed.), Mid-Year Review of the Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Humanitarians in action in 2026: delivering against the odds (people targeted, prioritised and reached; contributions to end-May 2026). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 22DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS, access to electricity, low-income group, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 10FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (publication page with headline estimates). Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 11WFP (ed.), Global hunger crisis page citing the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises (266 million people in crisis levels of hunger or worse; 70% in fragile or conflict-affected countries). World Food Programme, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 12Food Security Information Network and Global Network Against Food Crises (eds.), 2026 Global Report on Food Crises, Mid-year update (August 2026). FSIN, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 1OCHA (ed.), Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Trends in crises and needs: a world at breaking point (December 2025; people in urgent need, drivers, famine and Catastrophe counts, civilian fatalities). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 18DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SH.STA.MMRT, maternal mortality ratio (modelled estimate), API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 16DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SH.DYN.MORT, under-5 mortality rate, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 17DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SH.IMM.IDPT, immunisation DPT, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 31WHO (ed.), Surveillance System for Attacks on Health Care (SSA), method and definitions page; the dashboard counts were not extracted. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 8OECD (ed.), Preliminary official development assistance levels in 2025 (data note, April 2026; text read from the European Commission Knowledge for Policy record of the note, the OECD page returned an access error). Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 14UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 7IDMC (ed.), Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 (full report, May 2026). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 21DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, DT.DOD.DECT.CD and DT.TDS.DECT.CD, external debt stocks and debt service, low- and middle-income group, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In Global Development and Humanitarian Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Development and Humanitarian Action Worldwide. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-DEVELOPMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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