Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

3 min read1 figure0 tables11 notesNR-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Korea’s risk is demographic, climatic and import-dependent at once
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Climate forcing
    3. 2.3 Energy
    4. 2.4 Food
    5. 2.5 Health
    6. 2.6 Finance
    7. 2.7 SEI
    8. 2.8 Water
    9. 2.9 Biodiversity
    10. 2.10 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Heat and heavy-rain sequence over the capital region
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

Korea submitted a 2035 target of 53% to 61% below 2018 including land use, equal to 304 to 364 Mt CO₂e, in December 2025.

Figure 2.1Korea’s 2035 target range (% below 2018, including land use)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Lower end53
Upper end61

Source: Climate Action Tracker 2035 target page7.

Implication

The range is large against the 2030 projection of 11% to 19% below 2018 for current policies6. The gap is where power, industry and transport plans must carry the load, which makes the electricity mix5 the first system to watch.

What would move it

The electricity mix for 2026, the plan for the next electricity supply, and inventory totals after 2022 would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

    Korea submitted a 2035 target of 53% to 61% below 2018 including land use, or 304 to 364 Mt CO₂e, in December 2025.7

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

    Climate Action Tracker projects 2030 emissions 11% to 19% below 2018 under current policies, excluding land use.6

2.3Energy

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003

    Fossil fuels supplied 60% of electricity and low-carbon sources 40% in 2025; solar and wind supplied 7%.5

2.4Food

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE-FOO-004

    Korea expects to import 16.7 million tonnes of cereals in 2026/27, including 11.6 million tonnes of maize and 4.6 million tonnes of wheat.8

2.5Health

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE-HLT-005

    Births rose 6.7% in 2025 to about 254,300, and mothers were 33.8 years old on average.1

  2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE-HLT-006

    Total fertility in 2025 ranged from 0.63 in Seoul to 1.09 in Jeonnam.1

  3. Not boundEQL 1NRF-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE-HLT-011

    The share of the population aged 65 or over and heat-illness counts are not bound in this edition.1620

2.6Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE-FIN-007

    The IMF projects growth of 2.6% and inflation of 2.5% for 2026.4

2.7SEI

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE-SEI-008

    The 2017 Pohang earthquake (moment magnitude 5.5) has been analysed in peer-reviewed work as a possible case of induced seismicity.43

2.8Water

  1. Not boundEQL 1NRF-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE-WAT-009

    Water supply, water loss and drought indicators are not bound in this edition.18

2.9Biodiversity

  1. Not boundEQL 1NRF-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE-BIO-010

    Protected-area coverage and ecosystem condition are not bound in this edition.19

2.10Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a summer heat and heavy-rain sequence over a dense, ageing capital region that loads power, water, transport and care together. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 7Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “South Korea: 2035 NDC.” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, December 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/south-korea/2035-ndc/back
  2. 6Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “South Korea” country assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, updated 29 December 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/south-korea/back
  3. 5Ember (ed.), “South Korea” country page, electricity shares. Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/south-korea/back
  4. 8Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Republic of Korea, reference date 2 September 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=KORback
  5. 1Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) (ed.), “Birth Statistics in 2025.” KOSTAT, Daejeon, 26 August 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://mods.go.kr/board.es?mid=a20108010000&bid=11773&act=view&list_no=447264back
  6. 16Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (ed.), Heat-related illness surveillance report. KDCA, Cheongju. Source for a designed gap; the page returned an error at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  7. 20Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) (ed.), Population Projections. KOSTAT, Daejeon. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  8. 4International Monetary Fund (ed.), Republic of Korea country page: 2025 Article IV report and July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2025 and 2026 projection. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/KORback
  9. 43F. Grigoli, S. Cesca, E. Priolo et al., “The November 2017 Mw 5.5 Pohang earthquake: a possible case of induced seismicity in South Korea,” Science, vol. 360, pp. 1003–1006, 2018. Observation year 2017.back
  10. 18Ministry of Environment (ed.), Waterworks statistics. MoE, Sejong. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  11. 19Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan profile: Republic of Korea. CBD Secretariat, Montreal. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Republic of Korea Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Korea’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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