- Republic of Korea 2026
- Chapter 6
Readings from the other desks
The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Korea’s risk is demographic, climatic and import-dependent at once
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Heat and heavy-rain sequence over the capital region
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 6.1 The other desks’ editions of this subject
- 6.2 Three lenses
- 6.3 Standards, Academy and steward contributions
- 6.4 GCRI reading: the model card
- 6.5 Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
- 6.6 Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack
- 6.7 Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
- 6.8 Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject
Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.
| Desk | Edition | State | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| GRF Public Deliberation | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Standards Progress | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Academy Capability | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Index Measurement | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle |
6.2Three lenses
One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports a coupled reading of Korea’s risk: a demanding climate target, an electricity mix still 60% fossil, heavy reliance on imported cereals and a low, uneven fertility rate. Evidence is strongest for the electricity mix and the target, and weakest for water, nature, heat and loss records, which are not bound.
CLI-001 · ENE-003 · HLT-005 · SYS-012
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people risk arrives as a heat wave, a typhoon warning or a price change. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how regional differences in fertility and ageing change who can be reached and how fast places recover.
HLT-005 · HLT-006 · SYS-012
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. The protection gap and public-asset cover are not bound, and the target range asks for large investment in the power system. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.
FIN-007 · CLI-001
NEXUS
Synthesis
Korea’s demographic and electricity series are readable now; water, heat, wildfire and nature series are not. The 2027 programme should bind them, map capital-region lifeline dependencies, and measure fuel and grain import exposure.
SYS-012 · A-01 · A-02
6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions
How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for Republic of Korea. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.
| Quarter | Edition | Question | Boundary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | State and Agenda | What matters this year, and what is the starting position? | observed baseline stays distinct from planned work |
| Q2 | Evidence and Build | What new evidence and capability have been developed? | a configured capability is not a validated result |
| Q3 | Stress Test and Readiness | What do scenarios and tests reveal? | simulated loss or performance is not observed impact |
| Q4 | Annual Synthesis and Renewal | What did the year establish, and what changes next? | release follows review, not event publicity deadlines |
| Steward or body | Role | Contribution route |
|---|---|---|
| The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada) | Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T) | science and practice communities · GCRI gateway |
| The Global Risks Forum (GRF) | leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M) | policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway |
| The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) | finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F) | finance and insurance · GRA gateway |
| Nexus Standards | preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods | Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI |
| Risk Academy | learning pathways tied to the agenda questions | Academy gateway · learning by review |
| Korea | national pathway: Desk, Leadership Council, Consortium, Working Groups | national Commons room |
Standards drafts used in this edition
- Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
- Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
- Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech
Standards calendar to watch
- Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
- Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
- Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition
6.4GCRI reading: the model card
GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology
6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.
Korea’s 2035 range asks for a much larger cut than current policies project for 2030. The baseline reads this as a question about power, industry and transport systems, not about a single sector.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01
A target far above the trend
Total fertility ran from 0.63 in Seoul to 1.09 in Jeonnam in 2025. Population change reaches services unevenly, and every risk object in this edition is read through that lens.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02
Demography differs by region
Fossil fuels still supplied 60% of electricity and cereals are imported in large volumes. Energy and food security are trade questions as much as domestic ones.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03
Security is traded
This edition names the series it could not read. A gap printed with its source and blocker is more useful to a reviewer than an estimate that cannot be checked.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04
What is not yet bound
6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack
The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.
| Item | Register | State at baseline | First Q1 2027 entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| E1 | National risk state delta | baseline set by this edition | changes against the baseline |
| E2 | WEFH+B state delta | five system readings set | indicator updates and freshness |
| E3 | Agenda and Portfolio movement | eight agenda items · 7 proposed objects | admission decisions |
| E4 | NWG delivery register | no groups yet | first monthly outputs |
| E5 | NNC capability register | membership opens in Q1 2027 | first contributions |
| E6 | NLC questions and challenges | none yet | first challenge log |
| E7 | Foundry technical state | environment prepared | first sealed cut |
| E8 | Publication candidates | twelve findings carried forward | PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions |
| E9 | Universe readiness | one candidate mission | admission and role spine |
| E10 | Correction register | none | first correction cycle |
Publication dispositions
- Publish
- Hold
- Needs evidence
- Restricted
- Superseded
6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.
- IN FORCE
- ADOPTED
- SUBMITTED
- UNDER REVIEW
- PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY
| Instrument | Body | Scope | Status | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Agreement · 2035 target 53% to 61% below 2018728 | UNFCCC · Korea | national | SUBMITTED 2025 | emissions pathway |
| Framework Act on Carbon Neutrality10 | Government of Korea | national | IN FORCE | climate framework |
| Emissions Trading Scheme Act24 | Government of Korea | national | IN FORCE | carbon market |
| Basic Plan for electricity13 | MOTIE | national | PUBLISHED | power mix |
| Framework Act on Disaster and Safety Management44 | Government of Korea | national | IN FORCE | disaster management |
| Kunming-Montreal Framework27 | CBD | international | ADOPTED 2022 | 30by30 |
| Korean Sustainability Disclosure Standards23 | KSSB | listed companies | STATUS NOT BOUND | disclosure |
| Sendai Framework 2015–203025 | UNDRR | international | ADOPTED 2015 | risk reduction |
Changed since 2024
6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, national and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.
Review protocol
- Question
- What does the published evidence establish about Republic of Korea’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?
- Sources searched
- peer-reviewed literature; national and international assessments; official releases; industry loss data
- Window
- releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
- Selection
- sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
- Next step
- systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027
| Reference | Type | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee and Romero (eds.)26 | assessment | 2023 | context | forcing |
| McElwee et al. (eds.)32 | assessment | 2024 | framework | nexus interlinkages |
| Zscheischler et al.33 | journal article | 2018 | framework | compound events |
| Grigoli et al.43 | journal article | 2018 | supports | induced seismicity |
| WMO State of the Climate in Asia42 | assessment | 2025 | context | regional climate |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Framework Act on Carbon Neutrality10 | Government of Korea | 2021 | supports | climate framework |
| 2035 target submission11 | Government of Korea | 2025 | supports | target |
| Long-term low emission strategy12 | Government of Korea | 2020 | context | pathway |
| Basic Plan for electricity13 | MOTIE | 2025 | context | energy pathway |
| OECD Economic Survey37 | OECD | 2024 | context | fiscal |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birth statistics1 | KOSTAT | 2026 | supports | births, fertility |
| Population and GDP23 | World Bank | 2025 | supports | profile |
| Electricity data5 | Ember | 2025 | supports | power mix |
| Crop monitoring8 | FAO | 2026 | supports | cereal imports |
| Population projections2038 | KOSTAT · UN DESA | 2024 | context | ageing |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financial Stability Report22 | Bank of Korea | 2026 | context | finance |
| NatCatSERVICE31 | Munich Re | 2026 | context | global losses |
| Emissions Gap Report40 | UNEP | 2025 | context | ambition gap |
| Global Assessment Report39 | UNDRR | 2025 | context | disaster finance |
Where the evidence agrees
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 7Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “South Korea: 2035 NDC.” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, December 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/south-korea/2035-ndc/back
- 28UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Observation year 2015.back
- 10Government of the Republic of Korea (ed.), Framework Act on Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth for Coping with Climate Crisis. Seoul, 2021. Observation year 2021.back
- 24Government of the Republic of Korea (ed.), Act on the Allocation and Trading of Greenhouse-Gas Emission Permits. Seoul. Observation year 2015 (enactment).back
- 13Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (ed.), Basic Plan for Long-term Electricity Supply and Demand. MOTIE, Sejong. Observation year 2025 (latest plan). Not opened at evidence close.back
- 44Government of the Republic of Korea (ed.), Framework Act on the Management of Disasters and Safety. Seoul. Observation year none bound (current consolidated text not read).back
- 27Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022.back
- 23Korea Sustainability Standards Board (ed.), Korean Sustainability Disclosure Standards. KSSB, Seoul. Status not bound at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
- 25UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015.back
- 11Government of the Republic of Korea (ed.), Republic of Korea’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, December 2025. Observation year 2025. Submission text not read; cited through [7].back
- 6Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “South Korea” country assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, updated 29 December 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/south-korea/back
- 4International Monetary Fund (ed.), Republic of Korea country page: 2025 Article IV report and July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2025 and 2026 projection. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/KORback
- 26H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year 2023.back
- 32P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. Observation year 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054back
- 33J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018.back
- 43F. Grigoli, S. Cesca, E. Priolo et al., “The November 2017 Mw 5.5 Pohang earthquake: a possible case of induced seismicity in South Korea,” Science, vol. 360, pp. 1003–1006, 2018. Observation year 2017.back
- 42World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2024. WMO, Geneva, 2025. Observation year 2024.back
- 12Government of the Republic of Korea (ed.), 2050 Carbon Neutral Strategy of the Republic of Korea: Towards a Sustainable and Green Society (long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategy). Seoul, 2020. Observation year 2020.back
- 37OECD (ed.), OECD Economic Surveys: Korea 2024. OECD Publishing, Paris, 2024. Observation year 2024. Not opened at evidence close.back
- 1Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) (ed.), “Birth Statistics in 2025.” KOSTAT, Daejeon, 26 August 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://mods.go.kr/board.es?mid=a20108010000&bid=11773&act=view&list_no=447264back
- 2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Korea, Rep. (population and GDP). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://data.worldbank.org/country/korea-repback
- 3World Bank (ed.), “The World Bank in Korea: overview” (GNI per capita). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/korea/overviewback
- 5Ember (ed.), “South Korea” country page, electricity shares. Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/south-korea/back
- 8Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Republic of Korea, reference date 2 September 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=KORback
- 20Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) (ed.), Population Projections. KOSTAT, Daejeon. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
- 38United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024. United Nations, New York, 2024. Observation year 2024.back
- 22Bank of Korea (ed.), Financial Stability Report. Bank of Korea, Seoul. Observation year 2026 (latest report). Not opened at evidence close.back
- 31Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026. Observation year 2025.back
- 40United Nations Environment Programme (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025. UNEP, Nairobi, 2025. Observation year 2025.back
- 39UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025. UNDRR, Geneva, 2025. Observation year 2025.back
- 34World Health Organization (ed.), World Health Statistics 2025. WHO, Geneva, 2025. Observation year 2025.back
- 16Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (ed.), Heat-related illness surveillance report. KDCA, Cheongju. Source for a designed gap; the page returned an error at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back