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Korea’s risk is demographic, climatic and import-dependent at once

Part I describes systems and their couplings. It assesses no authority and ranks no province.

6 min read2 figures2 tables12 notesNR-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Korea’s risk is demographic, climatic and import-dependent at once
    1. 1.1 The questions this part answers
    2. 1.2 The argument
    3. 1.3 Twenty couplings between five systems
    4. 1.4 Reinforcing loops
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Heat and heavy-rain sequence over the capital region
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

  • Where is Republic of Korea’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
  • Which couplings carry shocks from one system to the next?
  • Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
  • What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

  • Narrative
  • Headline finding
  • Lead figure
  • Five system chapters
  • Twelve-domain reading
  • Sector screens
  • Dependency matrix
  • Risk objects
  • Capability ladder
  • Scenario
  • Three lenses
  • Portfolio

1.2The argument

The Republic of Korea is a high-income economy of 51.68 million people, with about US$1.87 trillion of output in 20252. This baseline reads its exposure as three forces acting together: a population that is ageing and has very low fertility, a warming climate that intensifies heat, rain and fire, and a dependence on traded fuel and food.

The demographic layer is the best bound. Births rose 6.7% in 2025 to about 254,300, and mothers were 33.8 years old on average1. Total fertility ranged from 0.63 in Seoul to 1.09 in Jeonnam1. The share of people aged 65 or over is not bound in this edition, because the release that would fill it could not be read20.

The climate-policy layer is mixed. Korea submitted a 2035 target of 53% to 61% below 2018 including land use7, and the tracker rates the national domestic target almost sufficient and the overall effort insufficient67. Current policies are projected to leave 2030 emissions only 11% to 19% below 20186. Inventory totals after 2022 are not bound9.

The energy layer shows the pace of change. Fossil fuels supplied 60% of electricity in 2025 and low-carbon sources 40%, with solar and wind at 7%5. Korea has set a renewable electricity target of 30% for 20356.

Food security rests on trade. Korea expects to import 16.7 million tonnes of cereals in 2026/27, 11.6 million tonnes of it maize for feed8. The domestic share of food supply is not bound in this edition17.

This edition therefore reads Korea’s risk as a property of the couplings between these forces. The matrix, risk objects, capability ladder and scenario that follow ask the same two questions: where does a shock travel next, and who holds the capability to stop it?

Figure 1.1How much of Korea’s electricity is low-carbon? Electricity shares, 2025 (%)

Low-carbon sources supplied 40% of electricity, against 43% for the world; solar and wind supplied 7%5.

ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Fossil fuels60
Low-carbon40
Solar and wind7

Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2025.

Figure ID FIG-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE-01-003

60%

fossil share, 20255

40%

low-carbon share, 20255

7%

solar and wind, 20255

30%

renewable electricity goal for 20356

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The Republic of Korea matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Figure 1.2Couplings between the five systems

Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Weak

Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.

Table 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
From, toWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT Water·STRONG
nuclear cooling · hydro		STRONG
irrigation · rain-fed yield		MODERATE
drinking water		STRONG
flows · wetlands
ENE EnergyMODERATE
pumping · treatment		·STRONG
fuel · fertiliser · cold chain		STRONG
facility power · cooling		MODERATE
reservoirs · land use
FOO FoodMODERATE
withdrawals · nutrients		WEAK
biofuel feedstock		·STRONG
nutrition · food safety		STRONG
land conversion
HLT HealthWEAK
workforce		WEAK
workforce		MODERATE
labour · disease		·WEAK
residues
BIO BiodiversitySTRONG
regulation · filtration		MODERATE
fire on lines · biomass		STRONG
pollination · soils		MODERATE
zoonoses · smoke		·
Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.

Transmission paths

  1. 01

    CLI → ENE → HLT

    A heat wave raises cooling demand and loads clinics and care at once.

    Expert input summer record not bound16

  2. 02

    CLI → WAT → INF

    Heavy rain floods dense urban areas and cuts transport.

    Expert input event record not bound15

  3. 03

    SEI → INF → ENE

    An earthquake or induced event near energy and industrial sites.

    Reported Pohang 201743

  4. 04

    TRD → ENE → FOO

    Fuel and fertiliser price shocks pass into food costs.

    Expert input import data8

  5. 05

    TRD → FOO

    A grain price or shipping shock reaches feed and food.

    Expert input cereal imports 2026/278

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Table 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
LoopFirst directionSecond direction
WAT and BIOWater to biodiversity: flows · wetlandsBiodiversity to water: regulation · filtration
FOO and BIOFood to biodiversity: land conversionBiodiversity to food: pollination · soils
A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Korea, Rep. (population and GDP). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://data.worldbank.org/country/korea-repback
  2. 1Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) (ed.), “Birth Statistics in 2025.” KOSTAT, Daejeon, 26 August 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://mods.go.kr/board.es?mid=a20108010000&bid=11773&act=view&list_no=447264back
  3. 20Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) (ed.), Population Projections. KOSTAT, Daejeon. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  4. 7Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “South Korea: 2035 NDC.” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, December 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/south-korea/2035-ndc/back
  5. 6Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “South Korea” country assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, updated 29 December 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/south-korea/back
  6. 9Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Research Center of Korea (ed.), National GHG Inventory (1990–2022 listed). GIR, Sejong. Observation year 2022 (page lists; figures not read). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.gir.go.kr/eng/index.doback
  7. 5Ember (ed.), “South Korea” country page, electricity shares. Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/south-korea/back
  8. 8Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Republic of Korea, reference date 2 September 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=KORback
  9. 17Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (ed.), Food Balance Sheet and self-sufficiency statistics. MAFRA, Sejong. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  10. 16Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (ed.), Heat-related illness surveillance report. KDCA, Cheongju. Source for a designed gap; the page returned an error at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  11. 15Korea Forest Service (ed.), Wildfire statistics and damage records. Korea Forest Service, Daejeon. Source for a designed gap; the page returned an error at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  12. 43F. Grigoli, S. Cesca, E. Priolo et al., “The November 2017 Mw 5.5 Pohang earthquake: a possible case of induced seismicity in South Korea,” Science, vol. 360, pp. 1003–1006, 2018. Observation year 2017.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 1: Korea’s risk is demographic, climatic and import-dependent at once. In Republic of Korea Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Korea’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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