- Republic of Korea 2026
- Chapter 3
Systems and sectors at baseline
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Korea’s risk is demographic, climatic and import-dependent at once
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Heat and heavy-rain sequence over the capital region
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
3.1Where each system stood at evidence close
WAT · Water
Water supply and water-loss indicators
Not boundSource: Ministry of Environment waterworks statistics18. Blocker: not retrieved by evidence close.
Not boundnoneMoE18
ENE · Energy
Low-carbon share of electricity
40%Fossil fuels supplied 60%; solar and wind 7%.
Reported2025Ember5
FOO · Food
Cereal imports expected, marketing year 2026/27
16.7million tMaize 11.6 million tonnes and wheat 4.6 million tonnes.
Reported2026FAO8
HLT · Health
Lowest regional total fertility rate
0.63births per womanSeoul in 2025; Jeonnam was highest at 1.09.
Reported2025KOSTAT1
BIO · Biodiversity
Protected-area coverage
Not boundSource: national reporting to the Convention on Biological Diversity19. Blocker: not retrieved by evidence close.
Not boundnoneCBD19
SYS · Cross-system
2035 target range, below 2018 including land use
53–61%Equal to 304 to 364 Mt CO₂e in 2035.
Reported2025CAT7
3.2Domain posture
Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.
| Domain | Posture at baseline | Coupling | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | Supply, loss and drought indicators not bound; pipes and basins to be read in 2027. | WAT → HLT · WAT ↔ ENE | Not bound EQL 1 |
| ENE | Fossil fuels 60% of electricity in 2025; low-carbon 40%. | ENE → all | Reported EQL 4 |
| FOO | Cereal imports of 16.7 million tonnes expected in 2026/27. | FOO ← TRD, ENE | Reported EQL 4 |
| HLT | Births up 6.7% in 2025; fertility lowest in Seoul; ageing share not bound. | HLT ← CLI, SEI | Reported EQL 4 |
| BIO | Protected-area coverage not bound. | BIO ↔ WAT, FOO | Not bound EQL 1 |
| CLI | 2035 target 53% to 61% below 2018; 2030 projection 11% to 19%. | forcing on all systems | Reported EQL 3 |
| INF | Dense urban networks; condition not bound at public-safe resolution. | INF → all | Expert input EQL 2 |
| FIN | IMF projects 2.6% growth in 2026; protection gap not bound. | FIN ← SEI, CLI | Reported EQL 3 |
| DAT | Digital dependencies of lifelines not mapped at public-safe resolution. | DAT → ENE, FIN | Expert input EQL 2 |
| AIC | Semiconductor and data-centre capacity adds power and water demand; not quantified. | AIC → ENE, WAT | Expert input EQL 2 |
| MIN | Critical minerals and fuels imported; stock depth not bound. | MIN ← TRD | Expert input EQL 2 |
| TRD | A trading economy dependent on sea lanes for fuel, grain and inputs. | TRD → all | Expert input EQL 2 |
3.3Sector screens
All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.
| Code | Sector | Baseline evidence | Exposure to watch | Evidence coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS-00 | Cross-system | compound heat, rain and demographic stress | heat and heavy rain over the capital region | THIN |
| GS-01 | Water | indicators not bound18 | drought; flood; pipe condition | THIN |
| GS-02 | Energy | 60% fossil electricity, 20255 | supply disruption; peak heat demand | PARTIAL |
| GS-03 | Food | 16.7 million t cereal imports8 | import shocks | PARTIAL |
| GS-04 | Health | low and uneven fertility1 | heat surge; care continuity | PARTIAL |
| GS-05 | Finance | IMF growth 2.6%4 | catastrophe fiscal cost | THIN |
| GS-06 | Development | regional fertility gap1 | service withdrawal | THIN |
| GS-07 | Climate | 2035 target7 | heat, rain and fire | PARTIAL |
| GS-08 | Disaster | loss records not bound15 | floods, typhoons, wildfire, earthquake | THIN |
| GS-09 | Infrastructure | condition not bound | maintenance backlog | THIN |
| GS-10 | Cities | dense metropolitan regions | urban flooding and heat | THIN |
| GS-11 | Biodiversity | indicators not bound19 | land-use and climate pressure | THIN |
| GS-12 | Earth observation | national weather service data not read14 | continuity | THIN |
| GS-13 | Cyber and digital | dependencies not yet mapped | systemic outages | THIN |
| GS-14 | Policy | carbon neutrality framework10 | coordination across levels | PARTIAL |
| GS-15 | Science | peer-reviewed seismic analysis43 | translation to regions | THIN |
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 18Ministry of Environment (ed.), Waterworks statistics. MoE, Sejong. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
- 5Ember (ed.), “South Korea” country page, electricity shares. Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/south-korea/back
- 8Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Republic of Korea, reference date 2 September 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=KORback
- 1Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) (ed.), “Birth Statistics in 2025.” KOSTAT, Daejeon, 26 August 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://mods.go.kr/board.es?mid=a20108010000&bid=11773&act=view&list_no=447264back
- 19Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan profile: Republic of Korea. CBD Secretariat, Montreal. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
- 7Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “South Korea: 2035 NDC.” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, December 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/south-korea/2035-ndc/back
- 4International Monetary Fund (ed.), Republic of Korea country page: 2025 Article IV report and July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2025 and 2026 projection. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/KORback
- 15Korea Forest Service (ed.), Wildfire statistics and damage records. Korea Forest Service, Daejeon. Source for a designed gap; the page returned an error at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
- 14Korea Meteorological Administration (ed.), Annual Climate Report. KMA, Seoul. Source for climate extremes; not bound at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
- 10Government of the Republic of Korea (ed.), Framework Act on Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth for Coping with Climate Crisis. Seoul, 2021. Observation year 2021.back
- 43F. Grigoli, S. Cesca, E. Priolo et al., “The November 2017 Mw 5.5 Pohang earthquake: a possible case of induced seismicity in South Korea,” Science, vol. 360, pp. 1003–1006, 2018. Observation year 2017.back