Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

5 min read1 figure0 tables13 notesNR-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
    1. S.1 Abstract
    2. S.2 Key messages
    3. S.3 Headline finding
    4. S.4 At a glance
    5. S.5 What each steward reads in it
    6. S.6 What this edition is, and is not
  3. 1Korea’s risk is demographic, climatic and import-dependent at once
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Heat and heavy-rain sequence over the capital region
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

S.1Abstract

The Republic of Korea (대한민국) enters 2027 as a high-income economy of 51.68 million people and about US$1.87 trillion of output in 20252, with one of the lowest fertility rates in the world and an ageing society. Births rose 6.7% in 2025 to about 254,300, yet total fertility stood at 0.63 in Seoul and 1.09 in Jeonnam1. In December 2025 Korea submitted a 2035 target of 53% to 61% below 2018, including land use7, while Climate Action Tracker projects 2030 emissions only 11% to 19% below 2018 under current policies6. Fossil fuels supplied 60% of electricity in 2025 and solar and wind 7%5, and Korea expects to import 16.7 million tonnes of cereals in 2026/278. Several national series that this edition set out to bind, among them greenhouse-gas inventory totals, water supply, protected areas, heat illness, wildfire and flood losses, could not be read at evidence close and appear as designed gaps with their source and blocker. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for Korea’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems, maps the couplings through which heat, rain, seismic and supply shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. It decides nothing.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the Republic of Korea baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  1. Inventory totals after 2022 are not bound. The 2035 target is 53% to 61% below 2018.79

    Where do emissions stand?Reported

  2. Climate Action Tracker projects 11% to 19% below 2018 by 2030 under current policies.6

    Is Korea on course for its 2030 target?Reported

  3. Fossil fuels supplied 60% of generation in 2025; low-carbon sources 40%.5

    How secure is electricity?Reported

  4. Korea expects to import 16.7 million tonnes of cereals in 2026/27.8

    How secure is food?Reported

  5. Births rose in 2025 but fertility is lowest in Seoul at 0.63; the ageing share is not bound.12045

    Is demographic change a health risk?Reported

  6. Water and protected-area series are not bound at evidence close.1819

    What about water and nature?Not bound

  7. The IMF projects 2.6% growth in 2026.4

    What does the economy look like?Reported

  8. A heat and heavy-rain sequence over the capital region loading power, water, transport and care. SCN-KOR-HRT-01

    What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

Korea submitted a 2035 target of 53% to 61% below 2018 including land use, equal to 304 to 364 Mt CO₂e, in December 2025.

Figure S.1Korea’s 2035 target range (% below 2018, including land use)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Lower end53
Upper end61

Source: Climate Action Tracker 2035 target page7.

The range is large against the 2030 projection of 11% to 19% below 2018 for current policies6. The gap is where power, industry and transport plans must carry the load, which makes the electricity mix5 the first system to watch.

S.4At a glance

51.68million

population, 20252

1.87US$ trillion

GDP, 20252

36,624US$

GNI per capita, 20243

254,300births

live births, 20251

40%

low-carbon electricity, 20255

Not bound

provincial structure and ageing share20

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of Korea’s risk: a demanding climate target, an electricity mix still 60% fossil, heavy reliance on imported cereals and a low, uneven fertility rate.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people risk arrives as a heat wave, a typhoon warning or a price change.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. The protection gap and public-asset cover are not bound, and the target range asks for large investment in the power system.

NEXUS

Synthesis

Korea’s demographic and electricity series are readable now; water, heat, wildfire and nature series are not.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the state of Republic of Korea’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026, the dependencies that connect them, the risks that travel through them and the capabilities that hold them. It sets out the questions the operational series will answer.

What it is not

Not a national risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any institution or asset. Competent authorities keep every mandate they hold, and national ownership of the series is unaffected.

What comes next

Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Korea, Rep. (population and GDP). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://data.worldbank.org/country/korea-repback
  2. 1Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) (ed.), “Birth Statistics in 2025.” KOSTAT, Daejeon, 26 August 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://mods.go.kr/board.es?mid=a20108010000&bid=11773&act=view&list_no=447264back
  3. 7Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “South Korea: 2035 NDC.” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, December 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/south-korea/2035-ndc/back
  4. 6Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “South Korea” country assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, updated 29 December 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/south-korea/back
  5. 5Ember (ed.), “South Korea” country page, electricity shares. Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/south-korea/back
  6. 8Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Republic of Korea, reference date 2 September 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=KORback
  7. 9Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Research Center of Korea (ed.), National GHG Inventory (1990–2022 listed). GIR, Sejong. Observation year 2022 (page lists; figures not read). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.gir.go.kr/eng/index.doback
  8. 20Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) (ed.), Population Projections. KOSTAT, Daejeon. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  9. 45Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) (ed.), Vital Statistics monthly releases (July 2026 release dated 23 September 2026; listing read, figures not read). KOSTAT, Daejeon. Observation year 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://mods.go.kr/menu.es?mid=a20108000000back
  10. 18Ministry of Environment (ed.), Waterworks statistics. MoE, Sejong. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  11. 19Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan profile: Republic of Korea. CBD Secretariat, Montreal. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  12. 4International Monetary Fund (ed.), Republic of Korea country page: 2025 Article IV report and July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2025 and 2026 projection. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/KORback
  13. 3World Bank (ed.), “The World Bank in Korea: overview” (GNI per capita). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/korea/overviewback

Cite this summary

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Executive summary: Executive summary. In Republic of Korea Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Korea’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

ReportsContribute

Send evidence or a correction on Republic of Korea.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) Systems Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.

GCRI Systems Evidence deskCountry Systems Risk and Resilience

Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.

CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.

The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

Science · evidence · measurement

Not for profit

Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

Partner with us

Who funds us

GCRI is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Corrections policy

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.

Privacy choices