Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Risks and capability

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

3 min read0 figures1 table7 notesNR-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Korea’s risk is demographic, climatic and import-dependent at once
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5Heat and heavy-rain sequence over the capital region
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. ReportedEQL 3RSK-KOR-SEI-001

    Induced or natural earthquake near dense industry

    Driver
    natural or induced seismicity
    Exposure
    industrial and urban areas
    Vulnerability
    not bound at public-safe resolution
    Capacity
    not bound
    Cascade
    SEI → INF, ENE
    Horizon
    30 years

  2. Expert inputEQL 2RSK-KOR-CLI-002

    Heavy rain, typhoon and urban flooding

    Driver
    more intense rainfall and typhoons
    Exposure
    dense cities and floodplains
    Vulnerability
    not bound
    Capacity
    not bound
    Cascade
    CLI → WAT → INF, HLT
    Horizon
    annual

  3. Expert inputEQL 2RSK-KOR-HLT-003

    Heat and demographic change loading health and care

    Driver
    longer, hotter summers
    Exposure
    older adults; outdoor workers
    Vulnerability
    ageing share not bound20
    Capacity
    heat illness records not bound16
    Cascade
    CLI → HLT → ENE peak
    Horizon
    seasonal

  4. Expert inputEQL 2RSK-KOR-ENE-004

    Fuel and gas supply disruption

    Driver
    shipping disruption or price spike
    Exposure
    power, industry, households
    Vulnerability
    stock depth not bound21
    Capacity
    not bound
    Cascade
    TRD → ENE → FOO, FIN
    Horizon
    1–5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationNOT BOUNDsource: building and land-use records · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Monitoring and observationNOT BOUNDsource: national weather and seismic service records14 · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Early warningNOT BOUNDsource: weather service and disaster agency records · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Preparedness and planningNOT BOUNDsource: national disaster safety plans44 · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Redundancy and reservesNOT BOUNDsource: energy and grain reserve records21 · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
ResponseNOT BOUNDsource: disaster agency records · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Continuity of critical servicesNOT BOUNDsource: operator continuity records · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
RecoveryNOT BOUNDsource: recovery programme records · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
AdaptationNOT BOUNDsource: national adaptation plans · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Social protectionNOT BOUNDsource: national social insurance records · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Finance and insuranceNOT BOUNDsource: Bank of Korea and regulator reports22 · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Institutional coordinationNOT BOUNDsource: national framework acts1044 · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Technical infrastructureNOT BOUNDsource: operator asset records · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
WorkforceNOT BOUNDsource: ministry workforce statistics · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Research capacityNOT BOUNDsource: national research statistics · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 20Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) (ed.), Population Projections. KOSTAT, Daejeon. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  2. 16Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (ed.), Heat-related illness surveillance report. KDCA, Cheongju. Source for a designed gap; the page returned an error at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  3. 21Korea Energy Economics Institute (ed.), Yearbook of Energy Statistics. KEEI, Ulsan. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  4. 14Korea Meteorological Administration (ed.), Annual Climate Report. KMA, Seoul. Source for climate extremes; not bound at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  5. 44Government of the Republic of Korea (ed.), Framework Act on the Management of Disasters and Safety. Seoul. Observation year none bound (current consolidated text not read).back
  6. 22Bank of Korea (ed.), Financial Stability Report. Bank of Korea, Seoul. Observation year 2026 (latest report). Not opened at evidence close.back
  7. 10Government of the Republic of Korea (ed.), Framework Act on Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth for Coping with Climate Crisis. Seoul, 2021. Observation year 2021.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In Republic of Korea Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Korea’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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