Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Heat and heavy-rain sequence over the capital region

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

2 min read0 figures0 tables2 notesNR-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Korea’s risk is demographic, climatic and import-dependent at once
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Heat and heavy-rain sequence over the capital region
    1. 5.1 Assumptions
    2. 5.2 The cascade, step by step
    3. 5.3 The scenario as a table of steps
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-KOR-HRT-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
a prolonged summer heat wave followed within weeks by a heavy-rain and typhoon event over a dense metropolitan region
Analogues
not bound; event records are a designed gap1516
Interventions
none modelled; the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

  1. 1

    CLI → ENE

    cooling demand lifts peak load

    expert input

  2. 2

    CLI → HLT

    heat illness loads clinics and care settings

    expert input

  3. 3

    CLI → WAT

    heavy rain floods streets and basements

    expert input

  4. 4

    WAT → INF

    transport and power equipment are cut

    expert input

  5. 5

    INF → HLT

    access to care falls for older residents

    expert input

  6. 6

    HLT → population

    recovery load falls on the same services

    expert input

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-KOR-HRT-01 would travel through Republic of Korea’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Climate to energyCooling demand lifts peak load. Analogue or source: expert input.Edition KOR, scenario SCN-KOR-HRT-01, step 1
02 Climate to healthHeat illness loads clinics and care settings. Analogue or source: expert input.Edition KOR, scenario SCN-KOR-HRT-01, step 2
03 Climate to waterHeavy rain floods streets and basements. Analogue or source: expert input.Edition KOR, scenario SCN-KOR-HRT-01, step 3
04 Water to infrastructureTransport and power equipment are cut. Analogue or source: expert input.Edition KOR, scenario SCN-KOR-HRT-01, step 4
05 Infrastructure to healthAccess to care falls for older residents. Analogue or source: expert input.Edition KOR, scenario SCN-KOR-HRT-01, step 5
06 Health to populationRecovery load falls on the same services. Analogue or source: expert input.Edition KOR, scenario SCN-KOR-HRT-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Republic of Korea 2026, scenario SCN-KOR-HRT-01 (2026); Republic of Korea 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 15Korea Forest Service (ed.), Wildfire statistics and damage records. Korea Forest Service, Daejeon. Source for a designed gap; the page returned an error at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  2. 16Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (ed.), Heat-related illness surveillance report. KDCA, Cheongju. Source for a designed gap; the page returned an error at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 5: Heat and heavy-rain sequence over the capital region. In Republic of Korea Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Korea’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Republic of Korea.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Context

Heatwave

Cooling demand peaks the grid while rivers warm; heat stress fills hospitals and wilts crops.

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.43 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Food → Health · nutrition0.7
  • Water → Health · drinking water and sanitation0.7
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

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