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Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

5 min read0 figures5 tables14 notesNR-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Korea’s risk is demographic, climatic and import-dependent at once
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Heat and heavy-rain sequence over the capital region
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Water, the baseline system chapter
    2. 8.2 Energy, the baseline system chapter
    3. 8.3 Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter
    4. 8.4 Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter
    5. 8.5 Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

Water supply, water loss and drought indicators are not bound in this edition. The chapter names the source and the blocker and does not estimate.

Not bound

supply and loss indicators18

Not bound

drought indicators18

Not bound

dam and basin data18

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Supplynot bound; source: waterworks statistics and AQUASTAT1841NOT BOUND
Floodsnot bound; source: disaster records15NOT BOUND
Droughtnot bound; source: water authority data18NOT BOUND
Pipe conditionnot bound; source: utility asset records18NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • WAT → HLT drinking water and sanitation
  • CLI → WAT heavy rain and drought
  • WAT → ENE hydro and cooling
  • INF → WAT pumping and power

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • supply and loss indicators
  • drought and basin stress

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

Fossil fuels supplied 60% of electricity in 2025 and low-carbon sources 40%, with solar and wind at 7%.

60%

fossil share of electricity, 20255

40%

low-carbon share, 20255

30%

renewable electricity goal for 20356

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Power mixfossil 60%, low-carbon 40%5Reported
Solar and wind7% of generation5Reported
Planlong-term electricity plan published13Reported
Fuel stocksnot bound; source: energy statistics21NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • TRD → ENE fuel imports
  • ENE → FOO fuel and fertiliser
  • CLI → ENE peak demand
  • ENE → WAT pumping and cooling

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • fuel stock depth under disruption
  • split of generation by fuel

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

Korea expects to import 16.7 million tonnes of cereals in 2026/27, so food and feed security is a trade question.

16.7million t

cereal imports, 2026/278

11.6million t

maize imports8

4.6million t

wheat imports8

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Cereal imports16.7 million tonnes expected8Reported
Maize11.6 million tonnes, feed industry demand8Reported
Rice0.5 million tonnes imported in 20268Reported
Self-sufficiencynot bound; source: national food balance17NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • TRD → FOO import dependence
  • ENE → FOO fuel and fertiliser
  • CLI → FOO heat and rain

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • self-sufficiency ratios
  • import concentration by origin

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Births rose 6.7% in 2025 to about 254,300, but total fertility differs widely by region, from 0.63 in Seoul to 1.09 in Jeonnam.

254,300births

20251

33.8years

mean age of mothers, 20251

0.63 to 1.09births per woman

regional range, 20251

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Birthsabout 254,300, up 6.7%1Reported
FertilitySeoul 0.63; Jeonnam 1.091Reported
Ageing sharenot bound; source: population projections20NOT BOUND
Heat illnessnot bound; source: surveillance records16NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • CLI → HLT heat
  • ENE → HLT cooling and power
  • INF → HLT access to care

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • ageing share
  • heat-illness counts

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

Protected-area coverage and ecosystem condition are not bound in this edition. The chapter names the source and the blocker and does not estimate.

Not bound

protected land19

Not bound

protected sea19

30%

global target by 203027

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Protectionnot bound; source: national reporting to the CBD19NOT BOUND
Strategynot bound; source: national strategy19NOT BOUND
Pressuresnot bound; source: national assessments19NOT BOUND
Conditionnot bound outside protected areas19NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • BIO → WAT forest and watershed regulation
  • BIO → FOO fisheries and pollination
  • CLI → BIO warming seas and fire

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • protected-area coverage
  • condition outside protected areas

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 18Ministry of Environment (ed.), Waterworks statistics. MoE, Sejong. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  2. 41Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), AQUASTAT: Republic of Korea. FAO, Rome. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  3. 15Korea Forest Service (ed.), Wildfire statistics and damage records. Korea Forest Service, Daejeon. Source for a designed gap; the page returned an error at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  4. 5Ember (ed.), “South Korea” country page, electricity shares. Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/south-korea/back
  5. 6Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “South Korea” country assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, updated 29 December 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/south-korea/back
  6. 13Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (ed.), Basic Plan for Long-term Electricity Supply and Demand. MOTIE, Sejong. Observation year 2025 (latest plan). Not opened at evidence close.back
  7. 21Korea Energy Economics Institute (ed.), Yearbook of Energy Statistics. KEEI, Ulsan. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  8. 8Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Republic of Korea, reference date 2 September 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=KORback
  9. 17Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (ed.), Food Balance Sheet and self-sufficiency statistics. MAFRA, Sejong. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  10. 1Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) (ed.), “Birth Statistics in 2025.” KOSTAT, Daejeon, 26 August 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://mods.go.kr/board.es?mid=a20108010000&bid=11773&act=view&list_no=447264back
  11. 20Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) (ed.), Population Projections. KOSTAT, Daejeon. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  12. 16Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (ed.), Heat-related illness surveillance report. KDCA, Cheongju. Source for a designed gap; the page returned an error at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  13. 19Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan profile: Republic of Korea. CBD Secretariat, Montreal. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  14. 27Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In Republic of Korea Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Korea’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-KOR-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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