Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

6 min read1 figure0 tables13 notesNR-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
    1. S.1 Abstract
    2. S.2 Key messages
    3. S.3 Headline finding
    4. S.4 At a glance
    5. S.5 What each steward reads in it
    6. S.6 What this edition is, and is not
  3. 1South Asia’s risk travels through rivers, monsoons and shared supply
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Second deficient monsoon with unsettled river treaties
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

S.1Abstract

South Asia, as the series reads it, is one member edition in the registry, India, set beside seven neighbouring states that are read as a reference group. The eight states had about 1,991 million people in 2025, of whom 73.5% lived in India1. Their greenhouse gas emissions excluding land use were about 5,234 Mt CO₂e in 2024, of which India emitted 83.5%3. Pakistan withdrew 326% of its internal renewable freshwater in 2022, and the Indus Waters Treaty is in dispute: a Court of Arbitration held on 31 August 2026 that it remains in force, and India rejects the award622. Floods in 2025 affected at least 5.8 million people in Pakistan, and Cyclone Ditwah damaged paddy in Sri Lanka in November 20251619. Bangladesh drew 97.7% of its electricity from fossil fuels in 2024, while Nepal and Bhutan drew almost all of theirs from hydropower4. An estimated 18.1 million people in Bangladesh and 13.8 million in Afghanistan face crisis levels of food insecurity or worse in 20261718. This Baseline Edition fixes the 2026 reference state from sources that could be read at evidence close. Where a regional dataset could not be read, it shows as a designed empty state that names the source and the blocker. The edition decides nothing and compares no state against another.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the South Asia baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  1. The eight states emitted about 5,234 Mt CO₂e in 2024 excluding land use, 83.5% of it in India. Totals are Nexus sums on one common basis.3

    Where do emissions stand?Estimated

  2. Bangladesh drew 97.7% from fossil fuels in 2024 and India 75.8%; Nepal and Bhutan drew almost all from hydropower.4

    How is electricity supplied?Reported

  3. Renewable internal water was 226 m³ per person in Pakistan in 2022 and 1,014 m³ in India.6

    How scarce is water?Reported

  4. A court held it remains in force on 31 August 2026; India rejects the award and keeps it in abeyance.2238

    What is the state of the Indus treaty?Reported

  5. Floods in 2025 affected at least 5.8 million people in Pakistan. Final tolls by province are not bound.1643

    How severe were recent floods?Reported

  6. About 18.1 million people in Bangladesh and 13.8 million in Afghanistan are projected at IPC Phase 3 or worse in 2026.1718

    How exposed is food supply?Reported

  7. Insured and uninsured loss series by state are not bound in this edition.16

    Who carries disaster losses?Not bound

  8. A second deficient monsoon with low river flow, heat and weak food supply while two river treaties are unsettled. SCN-SAS-DRY-01

    What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

A Court of Arbitration held on 31 August 2026 that the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 remains in force and limited construction at the Ratle plant until a Neutral Expert rules; India rejects the award and keeps the treaty in abeyance.

Figure S.1Withdrawals as a share of internal renewable freshwater, 2022 (%)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Pakistan326
India44.8
Afghanistan43.0

Source: World Bank freshwater series6. A value above 100% means withdrawals exceed internal resources. Pakistan and Afghanistan are reference-group states; India is the member.

A river treaty is a regional instrument. The Indus is shared by India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, and a dispute over its status bears on water, farming and power in all three. The court’s next step is the Neutral Expert decision on the Ratle plant, expected in July 202722.

S.4At a glance

1,991million

people in eight states, 2025 (ESTIMATED)1

73.5%

of them in India, 2025 (ESTIMATED)1

4,985US$ billion

output of seven states, 2025, excluding Afghanistan (ESTIMATED)2

5,234Mt CO₂e

emissions excluding land use, 2024 (ESTIMATED)3

536Mt

cereal production of eight states, 2024 (ESTIMATED)12

1member

India; seven reference-group states

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of South Asian risk: monsoon, river, power and food act on one another.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people risk arrives as a flood, a hot day, smoky air or a price rise.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Insured and uninsured loss series by state are not bound.

NEXUS

Synthesis

South Asia publishes strong series on population, emissions and electricity, and the river treaties are in motion.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the state of South Asia’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026 read across India. It reads the shared basins and grids that no single member controls, and sets out the questions the operational series will answer.

What it is not

Not a regional risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any institution or asset. Competent authorities keep every mandate they hold, and India’s ownership of its own edition is unaffected. It does not stand for any regional association or treaty body, and the seven states read as a reference group are not members in the series registry.

What comes next

Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline: new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SP.POP.TOTL population total, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka (data service, source updated 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF and EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, ER.H2O.INTR.PC renewable internal freshwater resources per person and ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS annual freshwater withdrawals as a share of internal resources, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 22T. Gamble-Eddington, Court of Arbitration Finds that the Indus Water Treaty Remains in Force (International Law in Brief, 21 September 2026; award and order of 31 August 2026, PCA Case No. 2023-01). American Society of International Law, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 16Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Pakistan (reference date 6 February 2026; cereal output about 53 Mt in 2025; floods affected at least 5.8 million people; about 10 million at IPC Phase 3 or worse April to July 2025). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 19Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Sri Lanka (reference date 31 August 2026; cereals 5.5 Mt in 2025; Cyclone Ditwah damage to paddy, November 2025). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS, EG.ELC.COAL.ZS, EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS and EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS, electricity and energy shares, eight states (latest value by state: 2021 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 17Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Bangladesh (reference date 4 September 2026; 2026 paddy forecast 61.9 Mt; 18.1 million projected at IPC Phase 3 or worse September to December 2026). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 18Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Afghanistan (reference date 15 September 2026; 13.8 million projected at IPC Phase 3 or worse; about 2.65 million returns by late July 2026). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Permanent Court of Arbitration (ed.), Indus Waters Western Rivers Arbitration (Pakistan v. India), PCA Case No. 2023-01, award and order of 31 August 2026 (dates and holdings taken from the ASIL account [22] and search summaries). PCA, The Hague. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Disaster Management Authority, Pakistan (ed.), 2025 monsoon season reports (death tolls from about 280 in July to about 1,000 at season end seen in news results; the figures conflicted and are not used). NDMA, Islamabad. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, NY.GDP.MKTP.CD GDP in current US dollars, NY.GDP.PCAP.CD and NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG, eight states (latest value 2025; Afghanistan 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, AG.PRD.CREL.MT cereal production, AG.LND.IRIG.AG.ZS irrigated agricultural land, NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS and SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS agriculture value added and employment, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this summary

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Executive summary: Executive summary. In South Asia Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of South Asia’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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