Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

South Asia’s risk travels through rivers, monsoons and shared supply

Part I describes systems and their couplings. It assesses no authority and ranks no member country.

8 min read2 figures2 tables16 notesNR-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1South Asia’s risk travels through rivers, monsoons and shared supply
    1. 1.1 The questions this part answers
    2. 1.2 The argument
    3. 1.3 Twenty couplings between five systems
    4. 1.4 Reinforcing loops
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Second deficient monsoon with unsettled river treaties
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

  • Where is South Asia’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
  • Which couplings carry shocks across member borders?
  • Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
  • What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

  • Narrative
  • Headline finding
  • Lead figure
  • Member system cards
  • Shared basins and grids
  • Hub list
  • Regional pathway
  • Twelve-domain reading
  • Sector screens
  • Dependency matrix
  • Risk objects
  • Capability ladder
  • Scenario
  • Three lenses
  • Portfolio

1.2The argument

The eight states commonly grouped as South Asia had about 1,991 million people in 2025, of whom 1,464 million lived in India, 255 million in Pakistan and 176 million in Bangladesh1. This baseline reads South Asia through its one registry member, India, and treats the seven neighbouring states as a reference group, because the registry names no other edition in the region.

Water is the clearest shared system. Renewable internal freshwater was 226 m³ per person in Pakistan, 620 in Bangladesh and 1,014 in India in 2022, against 6,670 in Nepal6. The Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 is now contested: a Court of Arbitration held on 31 August 2026 that it remains in force, and India rejects the award22. The Ganges Water Treaty is reported to expire in December 202640.

The forcing layer is monsoon and cyclone rainfall. The WMO reports that exceptional rainfall caused severe flooding in Pakistan and Sri Lanka in 2025 and that High Mountain Asian glaciers continue to retreat21. Floods affected at least 5.8 million people in Pakistan16. In India the 2026 monsoon delivered 87% of the long period average27.

The energy layer differs by state. Oil, gas and coal supplied 97.7% of electricity in Bangladesh and 75.8% in India in 2024, while hydropower supplied 98.7% in Nepal4. India emitted 83.5% of the eight-state total of about 5,234 Mt CO₂e excluding land use3.

Health and food carry the human cost. Mean PM2.5 exposure reached 69.3 µg/m³ in Bangladesh in 20238. About 18.1 million people in Bangladesh and 13.8 million in Afghanistan are projected at IPC Phase 3 or worse in 20261718.

This edition therefore reads South Asia’s risk as a property of couplings: a weak monsoon, a shared river and a thin power system act together. The matrix, risk objects, capability ladder and scenario that follow ask where a shock travels next across a border, and who holds the capability to stop it.

Figure 1.1How different are the electricity mixes? Share of generation from oil, gas and coal, 2024 (%)

Oil, gas and coal supplied 97.7% of electricity in Bangladesh, 75.8% in India, 55.7% in Pakistan and 46.6% in Sri Lanka in 20244. Hydropower supplied 98.7% in Nepal and 41.0% in Sri Lanka4. The Ember pages give 98% fossil for Bangladesh and 45% for Pakistan in 2025, on their own basis2324.

ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Bangladesh97.7
India75.8
Pakistan55.7
Sri Lanka46.6

Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2024.

Figure ID FIG-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE-01-003

97.7%

Bangladesh fossil share of electricity, 20244

75.8%

India fossil share of electricity, 20244

72.3%

India coal share of electricity, 20244

98.7%

Nepal hydro share of electricity, 20244

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The South Asia matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Figure 1.2Couplings between the five systems

Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Weak

Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.

Table 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
From, toWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT Water·STRONG
hydro · thermal cooling		STRONG
irrigation · rain-fed yield		STRONG
safe water · sanitation		STRONG
flows · wetlands
ENE EnergyMODERATE
pumping · desalination		·STRONG
fuel · fertiliser · cold chain		STRONG
air pollution · cooling		MODERATE
land use · mining
FOO FoodSTRONG
≈70% of withdrawals		WEAK
bioenergy feedstock		·STRONG
nutrition · food safety		STRONG
land conversion
HLT HealthWEAK
workforce		WEAK
workforce		MODERATE
labour · disease		·WEAK
residues
BIO BiodiversitySTRONG
regulation · filtration		MODERATE
biomass · hydrology		STRONG
pollination · soils		MODERATE
zoonoses · medicines		·
Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.

Transmission paths

  1. 01

    CLI → WAT → ENE

    A weak monsoon cuts river flow and reservoir storage and tightens hydropower and cooling water.

    Inferred monsoon 202627; no event bound

  2. 02

    CLI → FOO

    Rain deficits lower paddy output.

    Reported Nepal paddy down 4.2% in 202520

  3. 03

    WAT → FOO

    Dry-season river flow shapes irrigated output.

    Inferred irrigation shares12; no event bound

  4. 04

    CLI → HLT

    Heat and polluted air raise deaths and load health services.

    Reported air pollution mortality 20198

  5. 05

    CLI → INF → FIN

    Floods damage lifelines and the loss falls on households and budgets.

    Inferred floods 202516; loss series not bound

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Table 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
LoopFirst directionSecond direction
WAT and FOOWater to food: irrigation · rain-fed yieldFood to water: ≈70% of withdrawals
WAT and BIOWater to biodiversity: flows · wetlandsBiodiversity to water: regulation · filtration
FOO and BIOFood to biodiversity: land conversionBiodiversity to food: pollination · soils
A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SP.POP.TOTL population total, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka (data service, source updated 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, ER.H2O.INTR.PC renewable internal freshwater resources per person and ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS annual freshwater withdrawals as a share of internal resources, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 22T. Gamble-Eddington, Court of Arbitration Finds that the Indus Water Treaty Remains in Force (International Law in Brief, 21 September 2026; award and order of 31 August 2026, PCA Case No. 2023-01). American Society of International Law, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: India and Bangladesh (parties), Treaty between the Government of the Republic of India and the Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh on sharing of the Ganga/Ganges waters at Farakka, signed 12 December 1996 (expiry in December 2026 and the absence of a signed renewal taken from search summaries of news reports and an analytic brief). Joint Rivers Commission, Dhaka and New Delhi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 21World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2025 (series page opened, published 17 June 2026; the page states no South Asia figures). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 16Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Pakistan (reference date 6 February 2026; cereal output about 53 Mt in 2025; floods affected at least 5.8 million people; about 10 million at IPC Phase 3 or worse April to July 2025). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 27S. Valadbaygi (ed.), India Baseline Edition 2026 (draft pack read for findings CLI-002 and CLI-003: 2026 monsoon at 87% of the long period average; the weather-service statements it cites were read by that edition, not by this one). The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS, EG.ELC.COAL.ZS, EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS and EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS, electricity and energy shares, eight states (latest value by state: 2021 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF and EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3 mean annual PM2.5 exposure (2023) and SH.STA.AIRP.P5 mortality rate attributed to household and ambient air pollution (2019), eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 17Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Bangladesh (reference date 4 September 2026; 2026 paddy forecast 61.9 Mt; 18.1 million projected at IPC Phase 3 or worse September to December 2026). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 18Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Afghanistan (reference date 15 September 2026; 13.8 million projected at IPC Phase 3 or worse; about 2.65 million returns by late July 2026). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 23Ember (ed.), Pakistan electricity country page (updated 21 April 2026; fossil 45%, solar and wind 22%, low-carbon 55% in 2025; read through a page summary). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 24Ember (ed.), Bangladesh electricity country page (fossil 98%, solar and wind 1.5% in 2025; the year was stated in the headline only; read through a page summary). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 20Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Nepal (reference date 18 August 2026; cereals 11.1 Mt and paddy 5.7 Mt in 2025, paddy down 4.2%). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, AG.PRD.CREL.MT cereal production, AG.LND.IRIG.AG.ZS irrigated agricultural land, NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS and SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS agriculture value added and employment, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 1: South Asia’s risk travels through rivers, monsoons and shared supply. In South Asia Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of South Asia’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

ReportsContribute

Send evidence or a correction on South Asia.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the GCRI Systems Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.

GCRI Systems Evidence deskRegional Systems Risk & Resilience Report

Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.

CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.

The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

Science · evidence · measurement

Not for profit

Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

Partner with us

Who funds us

GCRI is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Corrections policy

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.

Privacy choices