Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Risks and capability

Four regional risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence; loss metrics are added only where they can be modelled.

5 min read0 figures1 table16 notesNR-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1South Asia’s risk travels through rivers, monsoons and shared supply
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5Second deficient monsoon with unsettled river treaties
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-SAS-CLI-001

    Monsoon flood and cyclone season across borders

    Driver
    exceptional monsoon and cyclone rainfall
    Exposure
    river plains, coasts and hill slopes
    Vulnerability
    low-lying coasts: 49% of the Maldives population lives below 5 m13
    Capacity
    early warning and relief; not bound
    Cascade
    CLI → INF, FOO, FIN, HLT
    Horizon
    annual

  2. InferredEQL 3RSK-SAS-WAT-002

    Low flow on shared rivers in a dry year

    Driver
    deficient monsoon and high dry-season demand
    Exposure
    irrigation, hydropower, cities
    Vulnerability
    Pakistan withdrawals at 326% of internal resources6
    Capacity
    treaties exist and are contested2240; performance not bound
    Cascade
    WAT → ENE, FOO
    Horizon
    1–5 years

  3. InferredEQL 3RSK-SAS-HLT-003

    Heat and polluted air overload health services

    Driver
    heat waves and seasonal smoke
    Exposure
    older adults, outdoor workers, children
    Vulnerability
    PM2.5 above 50 µg/m³ in four states8
    Capacity
    health system capacity not bound9
    Cascade
    CLI → HLT → ENE peak
    Horizon
    seasonal

  4. Expert inputEQL 2RSK-SAS-ENE-004

    Single-fuel or single-river power systems under stress

    Driver
    fuel supply change or a dry year
    Exposure
    households, industry and pumping
    Vulnerability
    fossil share 97.7% in Bangladesh; hydro 98.7% in Nepal4
    Capacity
    cross-border links not bound
    Cascade
    TRD → ENE → FOO, FIN
    Horizon
    1–5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at the regional level, from a policy listing to performance in real events.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationLISTEDclimate commitments exist in each state; none read in this edition
Monitoring and observationEXISTSWorld Bank, WMO and FAO series are published32116
Early warningNOT BOUNDsource: weather and flood-warning services · blocker: not retrieved
Preparedness and planningLISTEDSendai Framework 2015–2030 adopted by member states of the United Nations48; delivery not bound
Redundancy and reservesNOT BOUNDsource: reservoir and fuel stock records · blocker: not retrieved
ResponseNOT BOUNDsource: after-action records for flood and cyclone events · blocker: not retrieved
Continuity of critical servicesNOT BOUNDsource: utility and ministry records · blocker: not retrieved
RecoveryNOT BOUNDsource: recovery agency and insurer records · blocker: not retrieved
AdaptationNOT BOUNDsource: national adaptation plans · blocker: not reviewed
Social protectionNOT BOUNDsource: income-support and disaster-payment records · blocker: not reviewed
Finance and insuranceNOT BOUNDsource: insurer and reinsurer loss data · blocker: not retrieved
Institutional coordinationLISTEDa regional association charter exists46 and two river treaties are in play2240; performance not bound
Technical infrastructureNOT BOUNDsource: asset-condition registers · blocker: not published
WorkforceNOT BOUNDsource: health and emergency workforce registers · blocker: not retrieved
Research capacityEXISTSpeer-reviewed groundwater, heat and glacier research is published29303337
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, VC.IDP.NWDS new internal displacement associated with disasters (2023) and EN.POP.EL5M.ZS population in low elevation coastal zones below 5 m (2015), eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, ER.H2O.INTR.PC renewable internal freshwater resources per person and ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS annual freshwater withdrawals as a share of internal resources, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 22T. Gamble-Eddington, Court of Arbitration Finds that the Indus Water Treaty Remains in Force (International Law in Brief, 21 September 2026; award and order of 31 August 2026, PCA Case No. 2023-01). American Society of International Law, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: India and Bangladesh (parties), Treaty between the Government of the Republic of India and the Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh on sharing of the Ganga/Ganges waters at Farakka, signed 12 December 1996 (expiry in December 2026 and the absence of a signed renewal taken from search summaries of news reports and an analytic brief). Joint Rivers Commission, Dhaka and New Delhi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3 mean annual PM2.5 exposure (2023) and SH.STA.AIRP.P5 mortality rate attributed to household and ambient air pollution (2019), eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SP.DYN.LE00.IN life expectancy at birth and SH.DYN.MORT under-five mortality rate, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS, EG.ELC.COAL.ZS, EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS and EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS, electricity and energy shares, eight states (latest value by state: 2021 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF and EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 21World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2025 (series page opened, published 17 June 2026; the page states no South Asia figures). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 16Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Pakistan (reference date 6 February 2026; cereal output about 53 Mt in 2025; floods affected at least 5.8 million people; about 10 million at IPC Phase 3 or worse April to July 2025). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Charter of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, Dhaka, 1985. SAARC Secretariat, Kathmandu. Observation year 1985. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 29W. W. Immerzeel, A. F. Lutz, M. Andrade et al., “Importance and vulnerability of the world’s water towers,” Nature, vol. 577, pp. 364–369, 2020 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 30M. Rodell, I. Velicogna and J. S. Famiglietti, “Satellite-based estimates of groundwater depletion in India,” Nature, vol. 460, pp. 999–1002, 2009 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 33E.-S. Im, J. S. Pal and E. A. B. Eltahir, “Deadly heat waves projected in the densely populated agricultural regions of South Asia,” Science Advances, vol. 3, no. 8, 2017 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 37P. Wester, A. Mishra, A. Mukherji and A. B. Shrestha (eds.), The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment: Mountains, Climate Change, Sustainability and People. Springer, Cham, 2019 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; volume not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In South Asia Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of South Asia’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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