Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Systems and sectors at baseline

7 min read0 figures2 tables20 notesNR-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1South Asia’s risk travels through rivers, monsoons and shared supply
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Second deficient monsoon with unsettled river treaties
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

WAT · Water

Pakistan freshwater withdrawals against internal renewable resources

326%

A value above 100% means withdrawals exceed internal resources. India withdrew 44.8%.

Reported2022World Bank6

ENE · Energy

Bangladesh electricity from oil, gas and coal

97.7%

India 75.8%, Pakistan 55.7%, Sri Lanka 46.6% in the same series.

Reported2024World Bank4

FOO · Food

People in Bangladesh projected in IPC Phase 3 or worse, September to December 2026

18.1million

Up from 15.3 million in May to August 2026. Afghanistan: 13.8 million.

Reported2026FAO1718

HLT · Health

Mean annual PM2.5 exposure, Bangladesh

69.3µg/m³

Pakistan 58.4, India 54.1, Nepal 53.2 in the same series.

Reported2023World Bank8

BIO · Biodiversity

Land under terrestrial protection, India

7.7%

Bhutan 51.6%, Sri Lanka 30.8%, Pakistan 19.1%, Bangladesh 4.2%.

Reported2025World Bank7

SYS · Cross-system

People affected by floods in Pakistan in 2025, at least

5.8million

Crop losses were concentrated in Punjab. Final provincial tolls are not bound.

Reported2025FAO16

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The reading states where the regional evidence points; the coupling column names the dependency that carries risk across systems and borders.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATShared Indus and Ganges systems; Pakistan withdrew 326% of internal resources in 2022; the Indus treaty is in dispute622.WAT → ENE · WAT → FOOReported EQL 5
ENEFossil share of electricity 97.7% in Bangladesh and 75.8% in India in 2024; hydropower dominates in Nepal and Bhutan4.ENE → allReported EQL 5
FOOCereal output of 536 Mt across eight states in 2024; 18.1 million in Bangladesh and 13.8 million in Afghanistan projected at IPC Phase 3 or worse121718.FOO ← WAT, CLIReported EQL 4
HLTPM2.5 exposure of 69.3 µg/m³ in Bangladesh in 2023; under-five mortality 56 per 1,000 in Pakistan in 202489.HLT ← CLI, ENEReported EQL 5
BIOProtected land from 3.0% in the Maldives to 51.6% in Bhutan in 20257. Condition not bound.BIO ↔ WAT, FOOReported EQL 3
CLISevere floods in Pakistan and Sri Lanka in 2025; High Mountain Asian glaciers retreating21.forcing on all systemsReported EQL 4
INFElectricity access ranges from 87.8% in Afghanistan to 100% in three states in 20245. Cross-border links not bound.INF → allReported EQL 3
FINGrowth projections for 2026 range from 1.0% in the Maldives to 7.0% in India and Bhutan15. Loss series not bound.FIN ← CLINot bound EQL 1
DATDigital dependencies of lifelines not mapped at public-safe resolution.DAT → ENE, FINExpert input EQL 2
AICData-centre and compute demand on grids and water not bound.AIC → ENE, WATNot bound EQL 1
MINMineral and fuel trade not bound at baseline.MIN ← TRDNot bound EQL 1
TRDFuel import dependence is implied by fossil-heavy power in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan4; trade series not bound.TRD → allInferred EQL 2

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen global sectors are screened on the same grammar as every national edition, so later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemcompound drought, heat and food stressa second deficient monsoonPARTIAL
GS-01WaterPakistan withdrawals at 326% of internal resources6dry-season flow on shared riversGOOD
GS-02Energyfossil share 97.7% in Bangladesh4fuel supply; hydropower in dry yearsGOOD
GS-03FoodIPC Phase 3 or worse for 18.1 million in Bangladesh17drought, floods and price shocksPARTIAL
GS-04HealthPM2.5 at 69.3 µg/m³ in Bangladesh8heat and air pollution loadPARTIAL
GS-05Financeloss series not boundprotection gapTHIN
GS-06Developmentpoverty at $3.00 a day: 23.0% in Pakistan11income shocks after disastersPARTIAL
GS-07Climatesevere floods in 202521monsoon variability; glacier retreatGOOD
GS-08Disasterat least 5.8 million affected in Pakistan16sequential and compound eventsPARTIAL
GS-09Infrastructureelectricity access 87.8% in Afghanistan5grid links; border crossingsTHIN
GS-10Citiesurban share 20.5% to 67.0% across states14urban heat and floodingTHIN
GS-11Biodiversityprotected land 7.7% in India7condition not boundPARTIAL
GS-12Earth observationWMO regional assessment published21continuity of recordsGOOD
GS-13Cyber and digitaldependencies not mappedsystemic outagesTHIN
GS-14Policytwo river treaties in play2240coordination across bordersPARTIAL
GS-15Sciencepeer-reviewed groundwater, heat and monsoon record30313233translation to statesPARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, ER.H2O.INTR.PC renewable internal freshwater resources per person and ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS annual freshwater withdrawals as a share of internal resources, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS, EG.ELC.COAL.ZS, EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS and EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS, electricity and energy shares, eight states (latest value by state: 2021 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 17Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Bangladesh (reference date 4 September 2026; 2026 paddy forecast 61.9 Mt; 18.1 million projected at IPC Phase 3 or worse September to December 2026). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 18Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Afghanistan (reference date 15 September 2026; 13.8 million projected at IPC Phase 3 or worse; about 2.65 million returns by late July 2026). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3 mean annual PM2.5 exposure (2023) and SH.STA.AIRP.P5 mortality rate attributed to household and ambient air pollution (2019), eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, AG.LND.FRST.ZS forest area, ER.LND.PTLD.ZS terrestrial protected areas and AG.LND.AGRI.ZS agricultural land, eight states (forest and agricultural land 2024; protected areas 2025). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 16Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Pakistan (reference date 6 February 2026; cereal output about 53 Mt in 2025; floods affected at least 5.8 million people; about 10 million at IPC Phase 3 or worse April to July 2025). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 22T. Gamble-Eddington, Court of Arbitration Finds that the Indus Water Treaty Remains in Force (International Law in Brief, 21 September 2026; award and order of 31 August 2026, PCA Case No. 2023-01). American Society of International Law, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, AG.PRD.CREL.MT cereal production, AG.LND.IRIG.AG.ZS irrigated agricultural land, NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS and SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS agriculture value added and employment, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SP.DYN.LE00.IN life expectancy at birth and SH.DYN.MORT under-five mortality rate, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 21World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2025 (series page opened, published 17 June 2026; the page states no South Asia figures). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS access to electricity, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 15International Monetary Fund (ed.), DataMapper, World Economic Outlook series NGDP_RPCH real GDP growth and PCPIPCH inflation, projections for 2025 and 2026 (database vintage as served on the access date; the country filter was ignored and the full table was read). IMF, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS prevalence of undernourishment and SI.POV.DDAY poverty headcount at $3.00 a day (2021 PPP), eight states (no value for Bhutan and Maldives undernourishment; poverty years 2019 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS urban population share, SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS population aged 65 or over and SP.POP.GROW population growth, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: India and Bangladesh (parties), Treaty between the Government of the Republic of India and the Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh on sharing of the Ganga/Ganges waters at Farakka, signed 12 December 1996 (expiry in December 2026 and the absence of a signed renewal taken from search summaries of news reports and an analytic brief). Joint Rivers Commission, Dhaka and New Delhi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 30M. Rodell, I. Velicogna and J. S. Famiglietti, “Satellite-based estimates of groundwater depletion in India,” Nature, vol. 460, pp. 999–1002, 2009 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 31A. Asoka, T. Gleeson, Y. Wada and V. Mishra, “Relative contribution of monsoon precipitation and pumping to changes in groundwater storage in India,” Nature Geoscience, vol. 10, pp. 109–117, 2017 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 32M. K. Roxy, S. Ghosh, A. Pathak et al., “A threefold rise in widespread extreme rain events over central India,” Nature Communications, vol. 8, 2017 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 33E.-S. Im, J. S. Pal and E. A. B. Eltahir, “Deadly heat waves projected in the densely populated agricultural regions of South Asia,” Science Advances, vol. 3, no. 8, 2017 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In South Asia Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of South Asia’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

ReportsContribute

Send evidence or a correction on South Asia.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) Systems Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.

GCRI Systems Evidence deskRegional Systems Risk & Resilience Report

Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.

CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.

The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

Science · evidence · measurement

Not for profit

Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

Partner with us

Who funds us

GCRI is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Corrections policy

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.

Privacy choices