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Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

9 min read0 figures5 tables25 notesNR-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1South Asia’s risk travels through rivers, monsoons and shared supply
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Second deficient monsoon with unsettled river treaties
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Member countries: the baseline regional chapter
    2. 8.2 Shared basins and grids: the baseline regional chapter
    3. 8.3 Hub list: the baseline regional chapter
    4. 8.4 Regional pathway: the baseline regional chapter
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Member countries: the baseline regional chapter

The registry names one member edition for South Asia, India. The other seven states are read as a reference group, using the same published series, so that the member is seen in its setting. They have no edition in the registry and are never joined to the region on code alone.

1,991million

people in eight states, 2025 (ESTIMATED)1

5,234Mt CO₂e

emissions excluding land use, 2024 (ESTIMATED)3

4,985US$ billion

output of seven states, 2025 (ESTIMATED)2

Table 8.1Member system cards at baseline
MemberState at baselineEvidenceStatus
India (member)population 1,463.9 million; emissions 4,371.2 Mt; fossil 75.8% of electricity; PM2.5 at 54.1 µg/m³; 2026 monsoon at 87% of average134827Reported
Reference: Pakistanpopulation 255.2 million; renewable water 226 m³ per person; withdrawals at 326%; floods in 2025 affected at least 5.8 million; poverty at $3.00 a day 23.0%161116Reported
Reference: Bangladeshpopulation 175.7 million; fossil 97.7% of electricity; PM2.5 at 69.3 µg/m³; 18.1 million projected at IPC Phase 3 or worse14817Reported
Reference: Afghanistanpopulation 43.8 million; 13.8 million projected at IPC Phase 3 or worse; about 2.65 million returns; electricity access 87.8%1518Reported
Reference: Nepalpopulation 29.6 million; hydro 98.7% of electricity; paddy down 4.2% in 20251420Reported
Reference: Sri Lankapopulation 21.8 million; Cyclone Ditwah damaged paddy in November 2025; cereals 5.5 Mt in 2025119Reported
Reference: Bhutan and Maldivespopulations 0.80 and 0.53 million; Bhutan 70.4% forest and 51.6% protected; 49% of Maldives people below 5 m1713Reported

Couplings across members

  • CLI → WAT across the Indus and Ganges plains (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh)
  • WAT → ENE hydropower in Nepal and Bhutan and the links to India
  • CLI → FOO monsoon deficits into rice and wheat output
  • FIN ← CLI losses carried by households and budgets across borders

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • emissions on national inventory basis
  • flood loss and heat death series by state
  • condition of nature outside protected areas

8.2Shared basins and grids: the baseline regional chapter

Shared rivers, glaciers and power links carry risk across borders. This chapter names each system, the states involved and the evidence read at baseline. Rows without a source are designed empty states.

326%

Pakistan withdrawals against internal water, 20226

2river treaties

Indus 1960 and Ganges 19963940

12 Dec 2026reported expiry

Ganges Water Treaty40

Table 8.2Shared basins and seas
BasinMembers involvedEvidenceStatus
IndusIndia, Pakistan, Afghanistan; Court of Arbitration award of 31 August 2026, rejected by India2238Reported
GangesIndia, Bangladesh, Nepal; treaty reported to expire in December 202640Reported
Brahmaputra and MeghnaIndia, Bangladesh, Bhutan; no source read37NOT BOUND
Hindu Kush Himalaya glaciersall eight states in or beside the range; glaciers retreating, no figures read2137Reported
Table 8.3Shared grids and gas networks
GridMembers involvedEvidenceStatus
India, Nepal and Bhutan power linksNepal and Bhutan draw nearly all electricity from hydropower; flows and capacity not bound4NOT BOUND
India and Bangladesh power linkBangladesh draws 97.7% from fossil fuels; flows not bound424NOT BOUND
Electricity access87.8% in Afghanistan, 95.7% in Pakistan, 97.9% in Nepal in 20245Reported
Border crossing at Gyirongbadly damaged by a flash flood on 26 August 2026; casualty figures not bound25Reported

Couplings through shared systems

  • CLI → WAT → ENE low flow into hydropower and cooling water
  • WAT → FOO irrigation across the Indus plains
  • CLI → INF a glacier hazard cutting a border crossing
  • WAT → governance treaty positions into flow management

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • Indus flows and reservoir storage
  • Ganges treaty status
  • cross-border power flows
  • glacier mass change by basin

8.3Hub list: the baseline regional chapter

The hubs the series registry names for this region and for its member country. The list is read from the registry, so a change there changes this page.

Registry

Regional hubs
Bengaluru
Desks with a remit
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · GRX
Registry record
NR-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Table 8.4Member hubs as the registry names them
HubMemberRegistry roleMember edition
BengaluruIndiaG20 · hubin preparation

What a hub does in this series

  • Hub terms of reference are not set at baseline
  • Hub contact points are not named at baseline
  • The registry names the hubs and the desks with a remit; working arrangements follow from Q1 2027

8.4Regional pathway: the baseline regional chapter

The regional pathway is the route through which the series will read South Asia as one region from 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next. It does not describe any body that has not been constituted.

Table 8.5The regional pathway at baseline
StageWhat exists todayStateNext
Regional hubBengaluru is named in the series registryNAMEDterms set from Q1 2027
DesksGCRI, GRF and GRX hold the remit for regional editions in the registryNAMEDwork plan for Q1 2027
Evidence graphmember and regional findings share identifiersPREPAREDfirst sealed cut NQ-REG-SAS-2027-Q1
Member editionsIndia in preparationMIXEDreview through the chain before release

Open at baseline

  • Constitution of any regional council or working group
  • Hub terms of reference and contact points
  • The route from the one registry member to the seven reference-group states

Decisions that rest elsewhere

  • Water, energy and health policy rest with national authorities
  • River treaties are made and interpreted by their parties and courts; this edition cites them and decides nothing
  • Membership of any regional association is a decision of its member states and is not set by the registry

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SP.POP.TOTL population total, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka (data service, source updated 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF and EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, NY.GDP.MKTP.CD GDP in current US dollars, NY.GDP.PCAP.CD and NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG, eight states (latest value 2025; Afghanistan 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS, EG.ELC.COAL.ZS, EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS and EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS, electricity and energy shares, eight states (latest value by state: 2021 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3 mean annual PM2.5 exposure (2023) and SH.STA.AIRP.P5 mortality rate attributed to household and ambient air pollution (2019), eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 27S. Valadbaygi (ed.), India Baseline Edition 2026 (draft pack read for findings CLI-002 and CLI-003: 2026 monsoon at 87% of the long period average; the weather-service statements it cites were read by that edition, not by this one). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, ER.H2O.INTR.PC renewable internal freshwater resources per person and ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS annual freshwater withdrawals as a share of internal resources, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS prevalence of undernourishment and SI.POV.DDAY poverty headcount at $3.00 a day (2021 PPP), eight states (no value for Bhutan and Maldives undernourishment; poverty years 2019 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 16Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Pakistan (reference date 6 February 2026; cereal output about 53 Mt in 2025; floods affected at least 5.8 million people; about 10 million at IPC Phase 3 or worse April to July 2025). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 17Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Bangladesh (reference date 4 September 2026; 2026 paddy forecast 61.9 Mt; 18.1 million projected at IPC Phase 3 or worse September to December 2026). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS access to electricity, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 18Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Afghanistan (reference date 15 September 2026; 13.8 million projected at IPC Phase 3 or worse; about 2.65 million returns by late July 2026). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 20Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Nepal (reference date 18 August 2026; cereals 11.1 Mt and paddy 5.7 Mt in 2025, paddy down 4.2%). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 19Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Sri Lanka (reference date 31 August 2026; cereals 5.5 Mt in 2025; Cyclone Ditwah damage to paddy, November 2025). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, AG.LND.FRST.ZS forest area, ER.LND.PTLD.ZS terrestrial protected areas and AG.LND.AGRI.ZS agricultural land, eight states (forest and agricultural land 2024; protected areas 2025). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, VC.IDP.NWDS new internal displacement associated with disasters (2023) and EN.POP.EL5M.ZS population in low elevation coastal zones below 5 m (2015), eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 22T. Gamble-Eddington, Court of Arbitration Finds that the Indus Water Treaty Remains in Force (International Law in Brief, 21 September 2026; award and order of 31 August 2026, PCA Case No. 2023-01). American Society of International Law, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: India and Bangladesh (parties), Treaty between the Government of the Republic of India and the Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh on sharing of the Ganga/Ganges waters at Farakka, signed 12 December 1996 (expiry in December 2026 and the absence of a signed renewal taken from search summaries of news reports and an analytic brief). Joint Rivers Commission, Dhaka and New Delhi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Disaster Management Authority, Pakistan (ed.), 2025 monsoon season reports (death tolls from about 280 in July to about 1,000 at season end seen in news results; the figures conflicted and are not used). NDMA, Islamabad. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: India and Pakistan (parties), Indus Waters Treaty 1960 (text not opened). World Bank as signatory, Washington. Observation year 1960. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Permanent Court of Arbitration (ed.), Indus Waters Western Rivers Arbitration (Pakistan v. India), PCA Case No. 2023-01, award and order of 31 August 2026 (dates and holdings taken from the ASIL account [22] and search summaries). PCA, The Hague. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  22. 37P. Wester, A. Mishra, A. Mukherji and A. B. Shrestha (eds.), The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment: Mountains, Climate Change, Sustainability and People. Springer, Cham, 2019 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; volume not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  23. 21World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2025 (series page opened, published 17 June 2026; the page states no South Asia figures). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  24. 24Ember (ed.), Bangladesh electricity country page (fossil 98%, solar and wind 1.5% in 2025; the year was stated in the headline only; read through a page summary). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  25. 25S. J. Cook, The August 2026 Rasuwa disaster (blog post, 10 September 2026; ice-rock avalanche, initial volume about 100 million cubic metres; no precise casualty figure). Royal Scottish Geographical Society, Perth. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In South Asia Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of South Asia’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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