Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

6 min read1 figure0 tables17 notesNR-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1South Asia’s risk travels through rivers, monsoons and shared supply
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Climate forcing
    3. 2.3 Water
    4. 2.4 Energy
    5. 2.5 Health
    6. 2.6 Food
    7. 2.7 Systemic
    8. 2.8 Biodiversity
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Second deficient monsoon with unsettled river treaties
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

A Court of Arbitration held on 31 August 2026 that the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 remains in force and limited construction at the Ratle plant until a Neutral Expert rules; India rejects the award and keeps the treaty in abeyance.

Figure 2.1Withdrawals as a share of internal renewable freshwater, 2022 (%)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Pakistan326
India44.8
Afghanistan43.0

Source: World Bank freshwater series6. A value above 100% means withdrawals exceed internal resources. Pakistan and Afghanistan are reference-group states; India is the member.

Implication

A river treaty is a regional instrument. The Indus is shared by India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, and a dispute over its status bears on water, farming and power in all three. The court’s next step is the Neutral Expert decision on the Ratle plant, expected in July 202722.

What would move it

The Neutral Expert decision, the monsoon flow record, reservoir storage and any change in India’s position would each move this finding. Reservoir and flow series are not bound22.

2.2Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

    The WMO reports that exceptional monsoon and tropical cyclone rainfall caused severe flooding in Pakistan and Sri Lanka in 2025, and that High Mountain Asian glaciers continue to retreat.21

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

    The 2026 southwest monsoon delivered 87% of the long period average in India, as recorded by the India Meteorological Department and reported in the India edition.27

  3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003

    Floods in 2025 affected at least 5.8 million people in Pakistan, and Cyclone Ditwah in November 2025 damaged recently planted paddy in six districts of Sri Lanka.1619

  4. EstimatedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE-CLI-007

    Emissions excluding land use of the eight states summed to about 5,234 Mt CO₂e in 2024, of which India emitted 4,371 Mt (83.5%) and Pakistan 526 Mt (10.0%).3

2.3Water

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE-WAT-004

    Renewable internal freshwater was 226 m³ per person in Pakistan and 1,014 m³ in India in 2022, and Pakistan’s withdrawals equalled 326% of its internal renewable resources.6

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

    A Court of Arbitration held on 31 August 2026 that the Indus Waters Treaty remains in force and limited construction at the Ratle plant until a Neutral Expert rules; India rejects the award and keeps the treaty in abeyance.2238

2.4Energy

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE-ENE-006

    Oil, gas and coal supplied 97.7% of electricity in Bangladesh, 75.8% in India and 55.7% in Pakistan in 2024, while hydropower supplied 98.7% in Nepal in 2024.42324

2.5Health

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008

    Mean annual PM2.5 exposure was 69.3 µg/m³ in Bangladesh, 58.4 in Pakistan and 54.1 in India in 2023, and air pollution mortality in 2019 was highest in Afghanistan at 265.7 per 100,000.8

2.6Food

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE-FOO-009

    About 18.1 million people in Bangladesh and 13.8 million in Afghanistan are projected in IPC Phase 3 or worse in 2026, and undernourishment reached 27.8% in Afghanistan and 16.1% in Pakistan in 2024.111718

2.7Systemic

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE-SYS-010

    About 2.65 million Afghan nationals had returned by late July 2026, and a magnitude 6.0 earthquake on 31 August 2025 affected four eastern provinces of Afghanistan.1826

  2. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a second deficient monsoon in which low river flow, heat and weak food supply coincide while two river treaties are unsettled. §9.3

2.8Biodiversity

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011

    Forest covered 70.4% of land in Bhutan and 24.4% in India in 2024, and terrestrial protected areas covered 51.6% of Bhutan and 7.7% of India in 2025.7

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, ER.H2O.INTR.PC renewable internal freshwater resources per person and ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS annual freshwater withdrawals as a share of internal resources, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 22T. Gamble-Eddington, Court of Arbitration Finds that the Indus Water Treaty Remains in Force (International Law in Brief, 21 September 2026; award and order of 31 August 2026, PCA Case No. 2023-01). American Society of International Law, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 21World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2025 (series page opened, published 17 June 2026; the page states no South Asia figures). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 27S. Valadbaygi (ed.), India Baseline Edition 2026 (draft pack read for findings CLI-002 and CLI-003: 2026 monsoon at 87% of the long period average; the weather-service statements it cites were read by that edition, not by this one). The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 16Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Pakistan (reference date 6 February 2026; cereal output about 53 Mt in 2025; floods affected at least 5.8 million people; about 10 million at IPC Phase 3 or worse April to July 2025). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 19Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Sri Lanka (reference date 31 August 2026; cereals 5.5 Mt in 2025; Cyclone Ditwah damage to paddy, November 2025). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF and EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Permanent Court of Arbitration (ed.), Indus Waters Western Rivers Arbitration (Pakistan v. India), PCA Case No. 2023-01, award and order of 31 August 2026 (dates and holdings taken from the ASIL account [22] and search summaries). PCA, The Hague. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS, EG.ELC.COAL.ZS, EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS and EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS, electricity and energy shares, eight states (latest value by state: 2021 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 23Ember (ed.), Pakistan electricity country page (updated 21 April 2026; fossil 45%, solar and wind 22%, low-carbon 55% in 2025; read through a page summary). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 24Ember (ed.), Bangladesh electricity country page (fossil 98%, solar and wind 1.5% in 2025; the year was stated in the headline only; read through a page summary). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3 mean annual PM2.5 exposure (2023) and SH.STA.AIRP.P5 mortality rate attributed to household and ambient air pollution (2019), eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS prevalence of undernourishment and SI.POV.DDAY poverty headcount at $3.00 a day (2021 PPP), eight states (no value for Bhutan and Maldives undernourishment; poverty years 2019 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 17Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Bangladesh (reference date 4 September 2026; 2026 paddy forecast 61.9 Mt; 18.1 million projected at IPC Phase 3 or worse September to December 2026). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 18Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Afghanistan (reference date 15 September 2026; 13.8 million projected at IPC Phase 3 or worse; about 2.65 million returns by late July 2026). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 26WHO Health Cluster (ed.), Afghanistan earthquake (page dated 2 September 2025; magnitude 6.0 on 31 August 2025; Kunar, Laghman, Nangarhar and Nuristan; no casualty figures stated). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, AG.LND.FRST.ZS forest area, ER.LND.PTLD.ZS terrestrial protected areas and AG.LND.AGRI.ZS agricultural land, eight states (forest and agricultural land 2024; protected areas 2025). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In South Asia Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of South Asia’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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