- South Asia 2026
- Chapter 6
Readings from the other desks
The regional baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1South Asia’s risk travels through rivers, monsoons and shared supply
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Second deficient monsoon with unsettled river treaties
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 6.1 The other desks’ editions of this subject
- 6.2 Three lenses
- 6.3 Standards, Academy and steward contributions
- 6.4 GCRI reading: the model card
- 6.5 Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
- 6.6 Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 regional readiness pack
- 6.7 Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
- 6.8 Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review: science and assessments
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject
Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.
| Desk | Edition | State | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| GRF Public Deliberation | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Standards Progress | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Academy Capability | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Index Measurement | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle |
6.2Three lenses
One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports a coupled reading of South Asian risk: monsoon, river, power and food act on one another. Evidence is strongest for population, emissions and the electricity mix, and weakest for losses, cross-border power flows and the condition of nature.
CLI-001 · WAT-005 · SYS-012
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people risk arrives as a flood, a hot day, smoky air or a price rise. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how shared rivers make one state’s decision another state’s problem.
CLI-003 · HLT-008 · FOO-009
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. Insured and uninsured loss series by state are not bound. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an endorsement.
CLI-003 · SYS-012
NEXUS
Synthesis
South Asia publishes strong series on population, emissions and electricity, and the river treaties are in motion. The 2027 programme should bind flow, storage, loss and cross-border power data, test the deficient monsoon, and measure the condition of nature.
SYS-012 · A-01 · A-02
6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions
How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for South Asia. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.
| Quarter | Edition | Question | Boundary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | State and Agenda | What matters this year, and what is the starting position? | observed baseline stays distinct from planned work |
| Q2 | Evidence and Build | What new evidence and capability have been developed? | a configured capability is not a validated result |
| Q3 | Stress Test and Readiness | What do scenarios and tests reveal? | simulated loss or performance is not observed impact |
| Q4 | Annual Synthesis and Renewal | What did the year establish, and what changes next? | release follows review, not event publicity deadlines |
| Steward or body | Role | Contribution route |
|---|---|---|
| The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada) | Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T) | science and practice communities · GCRI gateway |
| The Global Risks Forum (GRF) | leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M) | policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway |
| The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) | finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F) | finance and insurance · GRA gateway |
| Nexus Standards | preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods | Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI |
| Risk Academy | learning pathways tied to the agenda questions | Academy gateway · learning by review |
| South Asia regional pathway | regional pathway: hubs named in the registry | regional Commons room |
Standards drafts used in this edition
- Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
- Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
- Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech
Standards calendar to watch
- Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
- Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
- Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition
6.4GCRI reading: the model card
GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology
6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.
The Indus and Ganges are shared by states whose treaties are now tested. The baseline treats the shared basin as the unit of analysis, with states as the places where the effects land.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01
Rivers do not follow treaties alone
The registry names India as the one member of this region. This edition reads seven neighbouring states as a reference group and sums their published series only as context. They are never joined to the region on a code alone.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02
One member does not make a region
Bangladesh draws almost all electricity from fossil fuels and Nepal and Bhutan almost all from hydropower. Each is a single-fuel or single-river system, and the couplings run through trade and rainfall.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03
Power systems carry a single bet
Several data that matter most for risk, including cross-border power flows, flood tolls and losses by state, could not be read at evidence close. The edition shows each gap and the source that would fill it.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04
Gaps are findings too
6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 regional readiness pack
The registers that open the 2027 regional cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.
| Item | Register | State at baseline | First 2027 entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| E1 | Regional risk state delta | baseline set by this edition | changes against the baseline |
| E2 | WEFH+B state delta | five regional system readings set | indicator updates and freshness |
| E3 | Agenda and Portfolio movement | eight agenda items · 7 proposed objects | admission decisions |
| E4 | Federation delivery register | editions in programme as listed in the series registry | regional and sector baselines |
| E5 | Consortium capability register | national consortia forming | first contributions |
| E6 | Leadership questions and challenges | none yet | first challenge log |
| E7 | Foundry technical state | national environments prepared | first federation cut |
| E8 | Publication candidates | twelve findings carried forward | PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions |
| E9 | Universe readiness | one candidate mission | admission and role spine |
| E10 | Correction register | none | first federation-wide cycle |
Publication dispositions
- Publish
- Hold
- Needs evidence
- Restricted
- Superseded
6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.
- IN FORCE
- ADOPTED
- SUBMITTED
- UNDER REVIEW
- PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY
| Instrument | Body | Scope | Status | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indus Waters Treaty 19603938 | India and Pakistan | Indus basin | IN FORCE PER COURT AWARD · INDIA REJECTS | shared rivers |
| Ganges Water Treaty 199640 | India and Bangladesh | Ganges at Farakka | REPORTED TO EXPIRE DEC 2026 | dry-season flow |
| Charter of the regional association of South Asian states46 | member states | South Asia | IN FORCE | regional cooperation |
| Sendai Framework 2015–203048 | UNDRR | international | ADOPTED 2015 | disaster risk reduction |
| Kunming-Montreal Framework49 | CBD | international | ADOPTED 2022 | 30by30 |
| Sixth Assessment Report, Working Group II47 | IPCC | international | PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY | regional risk |
Changed since 2024
To watch in 2027
- The Neutral Expert decision on the Ratle plant, expected in July 202722
- Whether a renewed or replaced Ganges treaty is signed40
- The official account of the August 2026 Rasuwa flash flood2552
6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review: science and assessments
The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, regional and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.
Review protocol
- Question
- What does the published evidence establish about South Asia’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks across its member countries?
- Sources searched
- peer-reviewed literature; regional and international assessments; official releases; statutory instruments
- Window
- releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
- Selection
- sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
- Next step
- systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027
| Reference | Type | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Immerzeel et al.29 | journal article | 2020 | framework | mountain water towers |
| Rodell et al.30; Asoka et al.31 | journal articles | 2009; 2017 | context | groundwater storage |
| Roxy et al.32; Im et al.33 | journal articles | 2017 | context | monsoon extremes; heat |
| Sherwood and Huber35 | journal article | 2010 | context | heat stress limit |
| Zscheischler et al.36 | journal article | 2018 | framework | compound events |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State of the Climate in Asia 202521 | WMO | 2026 | supports | floods, glaciers |
| Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment37 | ICIMOD and editors | 2019 | context | mountain systems |
| Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability47 | IPCC | 2022 | context | regional risk |
| Rasuwa disaster account25 | Royal Scottish Geographical Society blog | 2026 | context | glacier hazard |
| Health and economic impact of air pollution in the states of India34 | Lancet Planetary Health authors | 2021 | context | air and health |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population and economy1214 | World Bank | 2025 | supports | profile |
| Emissions and electricity345 | World Bank | 2024 | supports | climate, power |
| Water, land and air678 | World Bank | 2022 to 2025 | supports | water, nature, health |
| Health, sanitation and food9101112 | World Bank | 2024 | supports | health, food |
| Growth and inflation15 | IMF | 2026 | supports | finance |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cereal and food security briefs1617181920 | FAO GIEWS | 2026 | supports | food, floods |
| Pakistan and Bangladesh electricity2324 | Ember | 2026 | context | power mix |
| Afghanistan earthquake page26 | WHO Health Cluster | 2025 | context | hazard |
| Indus award commentary22 | American Society of International Law | 2026 | supports | shared rivers |
| India draft edition27 | Reports | 2026 | context | monsoon, heat |
Where the evidence agrees
Where it is unsettled
- Whether the Indus Waters Treaty binds all parties in its present form22
- The cause and toll of the August 2026 Rasuwa flash flood25
- How many heat deaths go unrecorded, since no consistent series exists27
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: India and Pakistan (parties), Indus Waters Treaty 1960 (text not opened). World Bank as signatory, Washington. Observation year 1960. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Permanent Court of Arbitration (ed.), Indus Waters Western Rivers Arbitration (Pakistan v. India), PCA Case No. 2023-01, award and order of 31 August 2026 (dates and holdings taken from the ASIL account [22] and search summaries). PCA, The Hague. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: India and Bangladesh (parties), Treaty between the Government of the Republic of India and the Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh on sharing of the Ganga/Ganges waters at Farakka, signed 12 December 1996 (expiry in December 2026 and the absence of a signed renewal taken from search summaries of news reports and an analytic brief). Joint Rivers Commission, Dhaka and New Delhi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Charter of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, Dhaka, 1985. SAARC Secretariat, Kathmandu. Observation year 1985. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: H.-O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts, M. Tignor et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 22T. Gamble-Eddington, Court of Arbitration Finds that the Indus Water Treaty Remains in Force (International Law in Brief, 21 September 2026; award and order of 31 August 2026, PCA Case No. 2023-01). American Society of International Law, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 25S. J. Cook, The August 2026 Rasuwa disaster (blog post, 10 September 2026; ice-rock avalanche, initial volume about 100 million cubic metres; no precise casualty figure). Royal Scottish Geographical Society, Perth. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 52POST-CLOSE, context only: International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ed.), publications listing (page opened; one report dated 13 October 2026 on the Gyirong and Rasuwa disaster of 26 August 2026 is listed by title only; its content was not read). ICIMOD, Kathmandu. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 29W. W. Immerzeel, A. F. Lutz, M. Andrade et al., “Importance and vulnerability of the world’s water towers,” Nature, vol. 577, pp. 364–369, 2020 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 30M. Rodell, I. Velicogna and J. S. Famiglietti, “Satellite-based estimates of groundwater depletion in India,” Nature, vol. 460, pp. 999–1002, 2009 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 31A. Asoka, T. Gleeson, Y. Wada and V. Mishra, “Relative contribution of monsoon precipitation and pumping to changes in groundwater storage in India,” Nature Geoscience, vol. 10, pp. 109–117, 2017 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 32M. K. Roxy, S. Ghosh, A. Pathak et al., “A threefold rise in widespread extreme rain events over central India,” Nature Communications, vol. 8, 2017 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 33E.-S. Im, J. S. Pal and E. A. B. Eltahir, “Deadly heat waves projected in the densely populated agricultural regions of South Asia,” Science Advances, vol. 3, no. 8, 2017 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 35S. C. Sherwood and M. Huber, “An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 107, pp. 9552–9555, 2010 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 36J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 21World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2025 (series page opened, published 17 June 2026; the page states no South Asia figures). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 37P. Wester, A. Mishra, A. Mukherji and A. B. Shrestha (eds.), The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment: Mountains, Climate Change, Sustainability and People. Springer, Cham, 2019 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; volume not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 34A. Pandey, M. Brauer, M. L. Cropper et al., “Health and economic impact of air pollution in the states of India: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019,” The Lancet Planetary Health, vol. 5, pp. e25–e38, 2021 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SP.POP.TOTL population total, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka (data service, source updated 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, NY.GDP.MKTP.CD GDP in current US dollars, NY.GDP.PCAP.CD and NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG, eight states (latest value 2025; Afghanistan 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS urban population share, SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS population aged 65 or over and SP.POP.GROW population growth, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF and EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS, EG.ELC.COAL.ZS, EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS and EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS, electricity and energy shares, eight states (latest value by state: 2021 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS access to electricity, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, ER.H2O.INTR.PC renewable internal freshwater resources per person and ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS annual freshwater withdrawals as a share of internal resources, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, AG.LND.FRST.ZS forest area, ER.LND.PTLD.ZS terrestrial protected areas and AG.LND.AGRI.ZS agricultural land, eight states (forest and agricultural land 2024; protected areas 2025). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3 mean annual PM2.5 exposure (2023) and SH.STA.AIRP.P5 mortality rate attributed to household and ambient air pollution (2019), eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SP.DYN.LE00.IN life expectancy at birth and SH.DYN.MORT under-five mortality rate, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SH.H2O.BASW.ZS basic drinking water and SH.STA.BASS.ZS basic sanitation services, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS prevalence of undernourishment and SI.POV.DDAY poverty headcount at $3.00 a day (2021 PPP), eight states (no value for Bhutan and Maldives undernourishment; poverty years 2019 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, AG.PRD.CREL.MT cereal production, AG.LND.IRIG.AG.ZS irrigated agricultural land, NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS and SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS agriculture value added and employment, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 15International Monetary Fund (ed.), DataMapper, World Economic Outlook series NGDP_RPCH real GDP growth and PCPIPCH inflation, projections for 2025 and 2026 (database vintage as served on the access date; the country filter was ignored and the full table was read). IMF, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 16Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Pakistan (reference date 6 February 2026; cereal output about 53 Mt in 2025; floods affected at least 5.8 million people; about 10 million at IPC Phase 3 or worse April to July 2025). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 17Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Bangladesh (reference date 4 September 2026; 2026 paddy forecast 61.9 Mt; 18.1 million projected at IPC Phase 3 or worse September to December 2026). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 18Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Afghanistan (reference date 15 September 2026; 13.8 million projected at IPC Phase 3 or worse; about 2.65 million returns by late July 2026). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 19Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Sri Lanka (reference date 31 August 2026; cereals 5.5 Mt in 2025; Cyclone Ditwah damage to paddy, November 2025). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 20Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Nepal (reference date 18 August 2026; cereals 11.1 Mt and paddy 5.7 Mt in 2025, paddy down 4.2%). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 23Ember (ed.), Pakistan electricity country page (updated 21 April 2026; fossil 45%, solar and wind 22%, low-carbon 55% in 2025; read through a page summary). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 24Ember (ed.), Bangladesh electricity country page (fossil 98%, solar and wind 1.5% in 2025; the year was stated in the headline only; read through a page summary). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 26WHO Health Cluster (ed.), Afghanistan earthquake (page dated 2 September 2025; magnitude 6.0 on 31 August 2025; Kunar, Laghman, Nangarhar and Nuristan; no casualty figures stated). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 27S. Valadbaygi (ed.), India Baseline Edition 2026 (draft pack read for findings CLI-002 and CLI-003: 2026 monsoon at 87% of the long period average; the weather-service statements it cites were read by that edition, not by this one). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back