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The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 Regional Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

5 min read0 figures6 tables3 notesNR-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1South Asia’s risk travels through rivers, monsoons and shared supply
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Second deficient monsoon with unsettled river treaties
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027: evidence pack for the regional candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. A-01

    How would a second deficient monsoon load groundwater, crops, power and household food budgets across the region?

    INI-SAS-CLI-01 · compound monsoon stress; first output: dependency graph for the Indus and Ganges plains.

  2. A-02

    How secure is power supply in states that depend on one fuel or one river?

    INI-SAS-ENE-02 · electricity mix and links; first output: fuel-and-link register.

  3. A-03

    How do shared river treaties shape dry-season flow, and what evidence binds them?

    INI-SAS-WAT-03 · shared rivers; first output: basin evidence note for the Indus.

  4. A-04

    How many deaths can be attributed to heat and air pollution, by state and year?

    INI-SAS-HLT-04 · heat, air and health; first output: attribution baseline for the member and two reference states.

  5. A-05

    Where do flood and cyclone losses fall between insurers, households and public budgets?

    INI-SAS-FIN-05 · protection gap; first output: peril-by-state loss table.

  6. A-06

    How fast are Himalayan glaciers losing mass, and which basins are exposed to sudden glacier hazards?

    INI-SAS-BIO-01 · mountain hazards; first output: glacier hazard evidence note.

  7. A-07

    How exposed are crop output and food access to concurrent drought, heat and price shocks?

    To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. A-08

    Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only documented?

    Regional capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Six initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 regional portfolio. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-SAS-CLI-01Compound monsoon stress: rivers, crops and powerInitiativeA-01PROPOSED
INI-SAS-ENE-02Electricity mix and cross-border linksInitiativeA-02PROPOSED
INI-SAS-WAT-03Shared rivers in dry yearsInitiativeA-03PROPOSED
INI-SAS-HLT-04Heat, air and health attributionInitiativeA-04PROPOSED
INI-SAS-FIN-05Flood and cyclone protection gapInitiativeA-05PROPOSED
PRJ-SAS-CLI-01aIndus and Ganges plains compound monsoon dependency graphProjectA-01PROPOSED
MSN-SAS-2027-01Monsoon, rivers and power Universe missionMissionA-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

The South Asia regional pathway is the route through which the Nexus operating system will read South Asia as one region from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its hubs are named in the series registry; its working arrangements are set from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

  1. 01

    National Foundries

    continuous national evidence environments

    PREPARED · first sealed cuts in Q1 2027

  2. 02

    National Models and Portfolios

    each country as a system of systems

    CANADA v0 ISSUED · 25 further national baselines

  3. 03

    Quarterly national reports

    State & Agenda, Evidence, Stress Test, Annual

    BASELINE STAGE · Q1 2027 opens the series

  4. 04

    Regional aggregation

    South Asia as one of ten regional clusters

    THIS EDITION · annual regional cut from 2027

  5. 05

    Global sector and strategic models

    GS-01…15 · SR-01…14 · XT-01…20

    49 PLANNED · pilots: GS-01, SR-01, XT-01

  6. 06

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · global mandate in 2027

  7. 07

    Global Report

    this series

    BASELINE ISSUED · 2027 annual edition

  8. 08

    Evidence and correction

    one graph, many projections

    OPEN · first federation-wide correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the regional candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027: evidence pack for the regional candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNED2027 regional annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-SAS-2027-01 · Monsoon, rivers and power Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
CLI-001 · regional climate recordpublic recordreference for the 2027 seriesPUBLIC
CLI-003 · floods 2025INI-SAS-CLI-01compound monsoon graphPUBLIC
WAT-004 · freshwaterINI-SAS-WAT-03shared riversPUBLIC
WAT-005 · Indus awardINI-SAS-WAT-03basin evidence notePUBLIC
ENE-006 · electricity mixINI-SAS-ENE-02fuel-and-link registerPUBLIC
HLT-008 · air pollutionINI-SAS-HLT-04heat, air and health attributionPUBLIC
FOO-009 · food insecurityscoping notefood exposure notePUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-SAS-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the federationconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
IMD monsoon bulletins and sub-division rainfallIndia Meteorological Departmentdaily in seasonCLI-002
Reservoir and river flow bulletinsnational water authoritiesdailyWAT-004
Electricity generation by fuelEmber and national utilitiesmonthlyENE-006
Food security and crop prospectsFAO GIEWSmonthlyFOO-009
IPC food insecurity analysesIPC partnershipseveral a yearFOO-009
Disaster situation reportsnational disaster authoritiesevent-basedCLI-003
World Development IndicatorsWorld Bankrollingprofile

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • quarterly publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-SAS-001Indus award of 31 August 202622CORROBORATEDWATresearch question A-03
SIG-SAS-002Floods in Pakistan 202516CORROBORATEDCLI · FOOrisk object RSK-SAS-CLI-001
SIG-SAS-003Rasuwa flash flood 202625SINGLE SOURCECLI · INFresearch question A-06

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 22T. Gamble-Eddington, Court of Arbitration Finds that the Indus Water Treaty Remains in Force (International Law in Brief, 21 September 2026; award and order of 31 August 2026, PCA Case No. 2023-01). American Society of International Law, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 16Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Pakistan (reference date 6 February 2026; cereal output about 53 Mt in 2025; floods affected at least 5.8 million people; about 10 million at IPC Phase 3 or worse April to July 2025). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 25S. J. Cook, The August 2026 Rasuwa disaster (blog post, 10 September 2026; ice-rock avalanche, initial volume about 100 million cubic metres; no precise casualty figure). Royal Scottish Geographical Society, Perth. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In South Asia Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of South Asia’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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