Methodology

How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

14 min read0 figures13 tables20 notesNR-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE

Contents

A.1Methods

The regional baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

Table A.1Methods
No.	Derivation	Calculation	Result
(1)	India’s share of the eight-state population, 2025	1,463.87 ÷ 1,991.32	73.5%
(2)	India’s share of the eight-state emissions excluding land use, 2024	4,371.17 ÷ 5,234.45	83.5%
(3)	India’s share of the eight-state cereal production, 2024	391.12 ÷ 536.15	73.0%
(4)	India’s share of the seven-state output, 2025, excluding Afghanistan	3,956.07 ÷ 4,985.33	79.4%

Table A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
Strength	Definition
STRONG	a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season, in more than one region
MODERATE	an effect is documented but buffered or slower
WEAK	an effect is plausible but not documented at regional scale

Table A.3Status grammar
Label	Rule
Reported	value as issued by its source, with year
Inferred	reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement
Estimated	Nexus analytical value with stated method
Scenario	conditional on stated assumptions
Expert input	structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence

A.2Model card: Regional System Model v0

Model ID: MDL-SAS-REGIONAL · v0.1
Purpose: represent South Asia as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems across member countries, with forcing and transmission layers
Family: graph-based system of systems
Inputs: the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
Method: expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events
Validation: none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027
Uncertainty: qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
Domain of validity: regional scale; not for national, basin or asset-level use
Reproducibility: strength table and sources published in this edition

20couplings

typed in v0

11strong

documented within one season

5moderate

documented, buffered

4weak

plausible, undocumented

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The regional baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID: NQ-REG-SAS-2026-Q0-1
Type: baseline documentary cut
Resolution policy: pinned · as of 30 September 2026
Sources pinned: 52 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references
Model runs: none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
Digest: computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
Supersedes: nothing, first cut of the series
Superseded by: NQ-REG-SAS-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close

Lineage

01
source edition
02
pinned citation
03
finding
04
page
05
publication record

Table A.4From the baseline cut to the federation cut
Element	Baseline 2026	2027 regional annual
Sources	cited publications, pinned by edition	national, regional and sector cuts through one graph
Analysis	stated methods and editorial estimates	typed analysis specifications
Models	Regional System Model v0 specification	model runs with receipts
Findings	twelve baseline findings	findings re-bound to federation evidence
Review	five passes scheduled	five passes on the exact digest

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

Table A.5Evidence age and coverage
Indicator	Observed	Released	Cadence	Next release
Population	2025	not recorded	annual	annual
Output and growth	2025	not recorded	annual	annual
Greenhouse gases	2024	not recorded	annual	annual
Electricity by fuel	2021 to 2024	not recorded	annual	annual
Freshwater series	2022	not recorded	annual	annual
PM2.5 exposure	2023	not recorded	annual	annual
Air pollution mortality	2019	not recorded	occasional	not recorded
FAO country briefs	2025 to 2026	Feb to Sep 2026	several a year	next brief
WMO Asia report	2025	Jun 2026	annual	annual

Table A.6Coverage by system at baseline
System	Coverage	Thinnest dimension
Climate and hazards	PARTIAL	final flood tolls; heat deaths
Energy	PARTIAL	cross-border power flows
Water	PARTIAL	Indus flows and storage
Food	PARTIAL	Bhutan and Maldives undernourishment
Health	PARTIAL	heat deaths; recent air mortality
Biodiversity	THIN	condition outside protected areas
Finance	THIN	insured and uninsured losses
Digital	THIN	dependency mapping

Table A.7Designed empty states: what is not bound, what would fill it and why
Field	Source that would fill it	Blocker
Cross-border electricity flows and capacity between India, Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh	national transmission utilities and the Indian Central Electricity Authority	not retrieved; no operator series was read
Final death toll, displacement and losses of the 2025 monsoon floods in Pakistan, by province	Pakistan National Disaster Management Authority season reports⁴³	not opened; the figures seen in search results conflicted
Casualty count and cause of the 26 August 2026 flash flood on the Nepal and China border	Nepal government records and the ICIMOD report listed on 13 October 2026⁵²	not opened; the one account read gives no precise count and the cause is unresolved²⁵
Deaths and injuries of the 31 August 2025 earthquake in eastern Afghanistan	USGS event record⁴⁴ and WHO situation reports	the event page returned no content and the WHO page states no figure²⁶; reports differ
Official toll of Cyclone Ditwah in Sri Lanka, November 2025	Sri Lanka Disaster Management Centre situation reports⁴²	not opened; figures seen in news results rose over time
Status of the renewal of the Ganges Water Treaty, which expires in December 2026	India and Bangladesh Joint Rivers Commission and the treaty text⁴⁰	the analytic brief fetched is an image-only file and could not be read⁴¹; no signed text found
Indus basin reservoir storage and river flows in Pakistan and India	Pakistan water authority and Indian Central Water Commission bulletins	not retrieved
Heat-related deaths in 2025 and 2026, by state	national health ministries and WHO	no consistent series found; the India edition notes the same gap²⁷
Prevalence of undernourishment for Bhutan and the Maldives	FAO and the World Bank undernourishment series¹¹	the series returned no value for these two states
Growth and inflation for Afghanistan for 2026	IMF projections¹⁵	the series returned a value for 2025 only
Emissions on each state’s own inventory basis, including land use	national communications and reports to the UNFCCC	not opened; the series in³ uses one common basis and may differ from national inventories
Glacier mass change by basin in the Hindu Kush Himalaya	ICIMOD and the World Glacier Monitoring Service³⁷	the WMO page states glacier retreat without figures²¹
Insured and uninsured disaster losses by state	insurers, reinsurers and national finance ministries	not retrieved
Capability rungs: early warning, reserves, response, recovery, social protection, infrastructure, workforce	disaster authorities, weather services, utilities and ministries	not reviewed by evidence close

A.5Evidence cards: two anchor sources

Issued by the World Bank. Annual series. Role: binds population, output and emissions in the profile and regional reading. Latest values differ by state and are stated beside each figure; the source updated on 8 October 2026.

EVD-SAS-001

World Development Indicators, eight states¹³

Issued by the Food and Agriculture Organization. Reference dates from February to September 2026. Role: binds food supply and food insecurity findings. Coverage is one brief per state.

EVD-SAS-002

FAO GIEWS country briefs¹⁶¹⁷¹⁸

Table A.8Quality dimensions at baseline
Dimension	EVD-SAS-001	EVD-SAS-002
Completeness	eight states; some series lack Afghanistan, Bhutan or the Maldives	one brief per state; Bhutan and the Maldives not read
Timeliness	latest values from 2021 to 2025	reference dates in 2026
Revision	revised by the issuer; not tracked here	revised with each brief
Method transparency	published methodology	published methodology
External validation	not assessed in this edition	not assessed in this edition

Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027

National inventories and reports to the UNFCCC : emissions on each state’s own basis
Reservoir and river flow bulletins : Indus and Ganges flows
Transmission utilities : cross-border power flows
Reports Foundational Edition⁵¹ and the global baseline⁵⁰ : method and peer distributions

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

Table A.9Publication acceptance record
Group	Area	Items	Pass	N/A	Pending
D1	Identity and scope	8	8	0	0
D2	Source and data	12	9	1	2
D3	Analysis and models	12	3	8	1
D4	Findings and claims	9	8	0	1
D5	Figures, tables, maps	10	6	2	2
D6	Editorial and citations	10	8	0	2
D7	Review and approval	13	0	0	13
D8	Artefact and design	12	7	0	5
D9	Registry and release	9	0	0	9

Publication gate

Conditions met: 14 of 23 at evidence close
Blocking problems: none recorded
Open conditions: reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer

Not applicable at baseline

Model runs: first runs in Q1 2027
Maps: plates in Q2 2027
Waivers: none

A.7Status words

Table A.10The status every value carries
Status	What it means
Observed	Measured directly and published by the source.
Reported	Published statistics of an official or institutional source.
Declared	Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.
Estimated	A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.
Modelled	Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.
Inferred	Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.
Forecast	A projection by the cited source.
Simulated	A simulation result under stated assumptions.
Scenario	A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.
Expert input	Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.
Candidate	Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.
Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Evidence arrives from the pillars	Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s.
02 The cut is sealed	On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.
03 The edition is assembled	The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.
04 The keys turn	At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.
05 The gate opens	A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.
06 Signed and deposited	The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.
07 Published on its desk’s site	Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.
08 Corrections go to Standards	Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

Table A.11Series terms
Term	Meaning
Baseline Edition	the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series
WEFH+B	water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core
Coupling	a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another
Protection gap	the share of losses not covered by insurance
Capability ladder	LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED
EQL	evidence-quality level, 1–5
Evidence cut	a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions
NNC · NLC · NWG	National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups

Table A.12Abbreviations used in this edition
Abbreviation	Expansion
AFG	Afghanistan
BGD	Bangladesh
FAO	Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
GIEWS	Global Information and Early Warning System
ICIMOD	International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
IMF	International Monetary Fund
IPC	Integrated Food Security Phase Classification
LPA	long period average
LULUCF	land use, land-use change and forestry
NPL	Nepal
PM2.5	fine particulate matter up to 2.5 micrometres
UNDRR	United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction
WDI	World Development Indicators
WMO	World Meteorological Organization
IWT	Indus Waters Treaty

A.10Technical annex

Table A.13Technical annex
Item	Annex	Contents	Status
A.1	Indicator definitions	the regional indicator set, with units and sources	IN THIS EDITION
A.2	Coupling strengths	the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale	IN THIS EDITION
A.3	Scenario specification	SCN-SAS-DRY-01 assumptions and signposts	IN THIS EDITION
A.4	Capability placements	rung evidence for fifteen functions	IN THIS EDITION
A.5	Model diagnostics	first runs and validation	2027
A.6	Sensitivity analyses	influence of coupling strengths	2027
A.7	Member-country notes	atlas cards for every member country	Q2 2027
A.8	Review statements	pass-by-pass review record	AT RELEASE

A.1 · indicator definition: emissions excluding land use

Construct: annual greenhouse gas emissions without land use, land-use change and forestry
Unit: Mt CO₂e, using AR5 global warming potentials
Scope: calendar year
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators total greenhouse gas series³
Revision: revised by the issuer; not tracked here
Known limits: the upstream compiler is not stated on the response read; national inventories may differ in basis

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

43UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Disaster Management Authority, Pakistan (ed.), 2025 monsoon season reports (death tolls from about 280 in July to about 1,000 at season end seen in news results; the figures conflicted and are not used). NDMA, Islamabad. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
52POST-CLOSE, context only: International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ed.), publications listing (page opened; one report dated 13 October 2026 on the Gyirong and Rasuwa disaster of 26 August 2026 is listed by title only; its content was not read). ICIMOD, Kathmandu. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25S. J. Cook, The August 2026 Rasuwa disaster (blog post, 10 September 2026; ice-rock avalanche, initial volume about 100 million cubic metres; no precise casualty figure). Royal Scottish Geographical Society, Perth. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
44UNVERIFIED, not opened: United States Geological Survey (ed.), M 6.0 earthquake, eastern Afghanistan, 31 August 2025, event page (the page returned no content; reported tolls of 2,217 from officials and higher from WHO seen in search results and not used). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26WHO Health Cluster (ed.), Afghanistan earthquake (page dated 2 September 2025; magnitude 6.0 on 31 August 2025; Kunar, Laghman, Nangarhar and Nuristan; no casualty figures stated). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Disaster Management Centre, Sri Lanka (ed.), Situation reports on Cyclone Ditwah (a toll of 649 deaths by 25 January 2026 and about 2.08 million people affected taken from search summaries of news and ReliefWeb; not used for any figure in the findings). DMC, Colombo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
40UNVERIFIED, not opened: India and Bangladesh (parties), Treaty between the Government of the Republic of India and the Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh on sharing of the Ganga/Ganges waters at Farakka, signed 12 December 1996 (expiry in December 2026 and the absence of a signed renewal taken from search summaries of news reports and an analytic brief). Joint Rivers Commission, Dhaka and New Delhi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
41UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: Institute of South Asian Studies (ed.), ISAS Brief 1428 on the Ganges treaty (12 October 2026; the file fetched was an image-only PDF and no text could be read). ISAS, National University of Singapore. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27S. Valadbaygi (ed.), India Baseline Edition 2026 (draft pack read for findings CLI-002 and CLI-003: 2026 monsoon at 87% of the long period average; the weather-service statements it cites were read by that edition, not by this one). The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS prevalence of undernourishment and SI.POV.DDAY poverty headcount at $3.00 a day (2021 PPP), eight states (no value for Bhutan and Maldives undernourishment; poverty years 2019 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15International Monetary Fund (ed.), DataMapper, World Economic Outlook series NGDP_RPCH real GDP growth and PCPIPCH inflation, projections for 2025 and 2026 (database vintage as served on the access date; the country filter was ignored and the full table was read). IMF, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF and EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
37P. Wester, A. Mishra, A. Mukherji and A. B. Shrestha (eds.), The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment: Mountains, Climate Change, Sustainability and People. Springer, Cham, 2019 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; volume not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2025 (series page opened, published 17 June 2026; the page states no South Asia figures). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SP.POP.TOTL population total, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka (data service, source updated 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Pakistan (reference date 6 February 2026; cereal output about 53 Mt in 2025; floods affected at least 5.8 million people; about 10 million at IPC Phase 3 or worse April to July 2025). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Bangladesh (reference date 4 September 2026; 2026 paddy forecast 61.9 Mt; 18.1 million projected at IPC Phase 3 or worse September to December 2026). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Afghanistan (reference date 15 September 2026; 13.8 million projected at IPC Phase 3 or worse; about 2.65 million returns by late July 2026). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
51UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
50UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition (draft pack used as the structural base of this edition; its text was not read for this edition). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex A: Methodology. In South Asia Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of South Asia’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

Name	Purpose	Duration	Party
`wordpress_*`cookie	Strictly necessaryThis site	Until you sign out	First party
`wordpress_logged_in_*`cookie	Strictly necessaryThis site	Until you sign out, or 14 days	First party
`wordpress_sec_*`cookie	Strictly necessaryThis site	Until you sign out, or 14 days	First party
`wordpress_test_cookie`cookie	Strictly necessaryThis site	Session	First party
`wp-settings-*`cookie	Strictly necessaryThis site	1 year	First party
`wp-postpass_*`cookie	Strictly necessaryThis site	10 days	First party
`comment_author_*`cookie	Strictly necessaryThis site	About 347 days	First party
`wpEmojiSettingsSupports`browser storage	Strictly necessaryThis site	Session	First party
`nexus_consent`cookie	Strictly necessaryPrivacy choices	180 days	First party
`nexus_consent_id`cookie	Strictly necessaryPrivacy choices	180 days	First party
`nexus_consent_reset`cookie	Strictly necessaryPrivacy choices	Session	First party
`wp_consent_*`cookie	Strictly necessaryPrivacy choices	180 days	First party
`nexus_consent`browser storage	Strictly necessaryPrivacy choices	180 days	First party
`nx_theme`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`nexus.theme.default`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`bx-color-mode`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`bx-color-mode-against`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`nexus.embed.theme`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`buddyx_dark_mode`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`buddyx_color_mode_against`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`nexus.a11y`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`nexus.dock`browser storage	Preferences and functionalDisplay preferences	Until you change it	First party
`bp-activity`browser storage	Strictly necessaryCommunity directories (BuddyPress)	As the provider sets it	First party
`bp-groups`browser storage	Strictly necessaryCommunity directories (BuddyPress)	As the provider sets it	First party
`bp-members`browser storage	Strictly necessaryCommunity directories (BuddyPress)	As the provider sets it	First party
`bp-blogs`browser storage	Strictly necessaryCommunity directories (BuddyPress)	As the provider sets it	First party
`bp-messages`browser storage	Strictly necessaryCommunity directories (BuddyPress)	As the provider sets it	First party