- South Asia 2026
- Annex B
Data appendix
The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1South Asia’s risk travels through rivers, monsoons and shared supply
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Second deficient monsoon with unsettled river treaties
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
B.1The indicator set
| Indicator | Value | Unit | Year | State | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eight-state population | 1,991.3 | million | 2025 | Estimated | 1 |
| India population | 1,463.9 | million | 2025 | Reported | 1 |
| Pakistan population | 255.2 | million | 2025 | Reported | 1 |
| Bangladesh population | 175.7 | million | 2025 | Reported | 1 |
| India output | 3,956 | US$ billion | 2025 | Reported | 2 |
| Share of eight-state population, India | 73.5 | % | 2025 | Estimated | 1 |
| Share of eight-state emissions, India | 83.5 | % | 2024 | Estimated | 3 |
| India emissions excluding land use | 4,371.2 | Mt CO₂e | 2024 | Reported | 3 |
| Pakistan emissions excluding land use | 525.9 | Mt CO₂e | 2024 | Reported | 3 |
| Bangladesh fossil share of electricity | 97.7 | % | 2024 | Reported | 4 |
| India fossil share of electricity | 75.8 | % | 2024 | Reported | 4 |
| Nepal hydropower share of electricity | 98.7 | % | 2024 | Reported | 4 |
| Pakistan renewable freshwater per person | 226 | m³ | 2022 | Reported | 6 |
| Pakistan withdrawals against internal resources | 326 | % | 2022 | Reported | 6 |
| Bangladesh mean PM2.5 exposure | 69.3 | µg/m³ | 2023 | Reported | 8 |
| Bangladesh IPC Phase 3 or worse, projected | 18.1 | million | Sep to Dec 2026 | Reported | 17 |
| People affected by floods in Pakistan, at least | 5.8 | million | 2025 | Reported | 16 |
| Cross-border electricity flows | Not bound | GWh | n/a | NOT BOUND | 4 |
| Heat-linked deaths, 2025 | Not bound | deaths | n/a | NOT BOUND | 27 |
| Final flood toll in Pakistan, 2025 | Not bound | deaths | n/a | NOT BOUND | 43 |
B.2Regional source register
The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.
Domains bound by the register
- WAT
- ENE
- FOO
- HLT
- BIO
- CLI
- INF
- FIN
- TRD
- MIN
| Source | Category | Coverage | Period | Cadence | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population and economy1214 | international statistics | eight states | 2024–2025 | annual | profile |
| Greenhouse gases3 | international statistics | eight states | 2024 | annual | CLI |
| Electricity452324 | statistics and think tank | eight states | 2021–2025 | annual | ENE |
| Water and land67 | international statistics | eight states | 2022–2025 | annual | WAT, BIO |
| Air and health8910 | international statistics | eight states | 2019–2024 | annual | HLT |
| Food11121617181920 | statistics and agency briefs | eight states | 2024–2026 | monthly | FOO |
| Growth and inflation15 | international statistics | eight states | 2025–2026 | twice yearly | FIN |
| Climate assessment21 | agency assessment | Asia | 2025 | annual | CLI |
| Indus award commentary22 | legal commentary | Indus basin | 2026 | one-off | WAT |
| India edition27 | earlier Nexus draft | India | 2026 | annual | CLI |
B.3Regional reading: South Asia by member country
Map plates for every member country follow in Q2 2027, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form for the 1 member countries named in the series registry.
Selected populations, 20251
1,463.9million
India
255.2million
Pakistan
175.7million
Bangladesh
43.8million
Afghanistan
| Member | Principal hazards | Systems most exposed | Baseline evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | deficient monsoon in 202627; monsoon extremes32; groundwater depletion in the north3031 | water, food, health | population 1,463.9 million; emissions 4,371.2 Mt; fossil 75.8% of electricity134 |
| Reference: Pakistan | floods in 2025 affecting at least 5.8 million people16; low internal water6 | water, food, health | population 255.2 million; emissions 525.9 Mt; fossil 55.7% of electricity134 |
| Reference: Bangladesh | monsoon and cyclone floods; coastal exposure13 | energy, food, health | population 175.7 million; emissions 220.8 Mt; fossil 97.7% of electricity134 |
| Reference: Afghanistan | earthquake on 31 August 202526; returns of about 2.65 million people18 | food, health, infrastructure | population 43.8 million; electricity access 87.8%15 |
| Reference: Nepal | rainfall deficit in 202520; Rasuwa flash flood in August 202625 | water, food, energy | population 29.6 million; hydro 98.7% of electricity14 |
| Reference: Sri Lanka | Cyclone Ditwah in November 202519 | food, infrastructure | population 21.8 million; emissions 37.2 Mt; fossil 46.6% of electricity134 |
| Reference: Bhutan | not bound here · no national edition in the registry | not bound | population 0.80 million; hydro 99.99% of electricity in 202114 |
| Reference: Maldives | sea-level exposure: 49% of people live below 5 m13 | water, infrastructure | population 0.53 million; fossil 94.2% of electricity in 202114 |
B.4Atlas card: Indus basin
- basin
- shared river system
- irrigation and power
- India and Pakistan; Afghanistan in the wider system
- Systems in view
- water, food and energy
- Defining instruments
- Indus Waters Treaty 196039; Court of Arbitration award of 31 August 202622
- Couplings
- CLI → WAT → ENE; WAT → FOO
- Capability evidence
- a treaty regime exists and is contested22; performance not bound
- Gaps
- flows, reservoir storage and project data
- Agenda items
- A-03
Pakistan withdrew 326% of its internal renewable resources in 2022, and 53.7% of its agricultural land was irrigated in 2024 [6] [12]. Basin flow series are not bound.
WATER
A shared river system
The court held that the treaty remains in force, limited work at the Ratle plant pending a Neutral Expert, and India rejects the award [22].
LAW
A treaty in dispute
Source: national water and power authorities. Blocker: not retrieved at evidence close.
ENERGY
Hydropower and storage
B.5South Asia system card
The card through which South Asia appears in the global edition and in the sector series. It summarises; it does not rank.
| System | Baseline state | Coupling to watch | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Water | internal water 1,014 m³ per person in India6; groundwater study30 | dry-season flow into farming and power | PARTIAL |
| Energy | fossil 75.8% of electricity in India4 | fuel supply and hydropower in dry years | PARTIAL |
| Food | cereal output 391 Mt in India in 202412 | monsoon deficit and heat | PARTIAL |
| Health | PM2.5 at 54.1 µg/m³ in India8 | heat and polluted air | PARTIAL |
| Biodiversity | 7.7% of Indian land protected7 | condition not bound | THIN |
Context
- Archetype
- one member edition with a seven-state reference group
- Population
- 1,991 million across eight states, 2025 (ESTIMATED)1
- Trade
- not bound at baseline
- Hazard
- floods in Pakistan in 2025 affected at least 5.8 million people16
The member editions (India) and this regional edition share finding identifiers where they read the same evidence, so a correction travels to every edition at once.
MEMBER EDITIONS
Same findings, same IDs
South Asia evidence enters the water, energy, food, finance and climate sector reports through the same finding identifiers.
GLOBAL SECTOR SERIES
Regional evidence, sector reports
In the global edition South Asia is read against peer distributions and thresholds, never placed in a league table.
GLOBAL FLAGSHIP
Peers, not ranks
B.6Licences
| Material | Licence |
|---|---|
| Text | CC BY 4.0 |
| Data | on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0 |
| Figures | Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited |
| Maps | boundary source and licence printed on each plate |
| Metadata | CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it |
| Third-party data, figures and text | The source’s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed |
| Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence. | |
B.7Formats and provenance
| Format | Kind | State | What it is | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Web edition | HTML | On this site | Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source. | NR-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| Print edition | At release | A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release. | NR-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | |
| Indicator data | CSV · JSON | On this site | 20 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release. | NR-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE data release v1 |
| Figures | SVG · PNG | On this site | 4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder. | FIG-REGIONAL-SAS-2026-BASELINE-* |
| Slides | Not recorded | No slide deck is recorded for this edition. | ||
| Evidence brief | HTML · PDF | Not recorded | No evidence brief is recorded for this edition. | |
| Dataset with DOI | DataCite | At release | Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet. |
Provenance
- Edition pack
- The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
- Evidence cut
- NQ-REG-SAS-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026
- Reproducibility
- sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
- Self-check
- 14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
- Review
- five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
- Publisher of record
- The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium
- Corrections
- Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SP.POP.TOTL population total, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka (data service, source updated 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, NY.GDP.MKTP.CD GDP in current US dollars, NY.GDP.PCAP.CD and NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG, eight states (latest value 2025; Afghanistan 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF and EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS, EG.ELC.COAL.ZS, EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS and EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS, electricity and energy shares, eight states (latest value by state: 2021 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, ER.H2O.INTR.PC renewable internal freshwater resources per person and ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS annual freshwater withdrawals as a share of internal resources, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3 mean annual PM2.5 exposure (2023) and SH.STA.AIRP.P5 mortality rate attributed to household and ambient air pollution (2019), eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 17Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Bangladesh (reference date 4 September 2026; 2026 paddy forecast 61.9 Mt; 18.1 million projected at IPC Phase 3 or worse September to December 2026). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 16Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Pakistan (reference date 6 February 2026; cereal output about 53 Mt in 2025; floods affected at least 5.8 million people; about 10 million at IPC Phase 3 or worse April to July 2025). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 27S. Valadbaygi (ed.), India Baseline Edition 2026 (draft pack read for findings CLI-002 and CLI-003: 2026 monsoon at 87% of the long period average; the weather-service statements it cites were read by that edition, not by this one). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Disaster Management Authority, Pakistan (ed.), 2025 monsoon season reports (death tolls from about 280 in July to about 1,000 at season end seen in news results; the figures conflicted and are not used). NDMA, Islamabad. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS urban population share, SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS population aged 65 or over and SP.POP.GROW population growth, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS access to electricity, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 23Ember (ed.), Pakistan electricity country page (updated 21 April 2026; fossil 45%, solar and wind 22%, low-carbon 55% in 2025; read through a page summary). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 24Ember (ed.), Bangladesh electricity country page (fossil 98%, solar and wind 1.5% in 2025; the year was stated in the headline only; read through a page summary). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, AG.LND.FRST.ZS forest area, ER.LND.PTLD.ZS terrestrial protected areas and AG.LND.AGRI.ZS agricultural land, eight states (forest and agricultural land 2024; protected areas 2025). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SP.DYN.LE00.IN life expectancy at birth and SH.DYN.MORT under-five mortality rate, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SH.H2O.BASW.ZS basic drinking water and SH.STA.BASS.ZS basic sanitation services, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS prevalence of undernourishment and SI.POV.DDAY poverty headcount at $3.00 a day (2021 PPP), eight states (no value for Bhutan and Maldives undernourishment; poverty years 2019 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, AG.PRD.CREL.MT cereal production, AG.LND.IRIG.AG.ZS irrigated agricultural land, NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS and SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS agriculture value added and employment, eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 18Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Afghanistan (reference date 15 September 2026; 13.8 million projected at IPC Phase 3 or worse; about 2.65 million returns by late July 2026). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 19Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Sri Lanka (reference date 31 August 2026; cereals 5.5 Mt in 2025; Cyclone Ditwah damage to paddy, November 2025). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 20Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Nepal (reference date 18 August 2026; cereals 11.1 Mt and paddy 5.7 Mt in 2025, paddy down 4.2%). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 15International Monetary Fund (ed.), DataMapper, World Economic Outlook series NGDP_RPCH real GDP growth and PCPIPCH inflation, projections for 2025 and 2026 (database vintage as served on the access date; the country filter was ignored and the full table was read). IMF, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 21World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2025 (series page opened, published 17 June 2026; the page states no South Asia figures). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 22T. Gamble-Eddington, Court of Arbitration Finds that the Indus Water Treaty Remains in Force (International Law in Brief, 21 September 2026; award and order of 31 August 2026, PCA Case No. 2023-01). American Society of International Law, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 32M. K. Roxy, S. Ghosh, A. Pathak et al., “A threefold rise in widespread extreme rain events over central India,” Nature Communications, vol. 8, 2017 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 30M. Rodell, I. Velicogna and J. S. Famiglietti, “Satellite-based estimates of groundwater depletion in India,” Nature, vol. 460, pp. 999–1002, 2009 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 31A. Asoka, T. Gleeson, Y. Wada and V. Mishra, “Relative contribution of monsoon precipitation and pumping to changes in groundwater storage in India,” Nature Geoscience, vol. 10, pp. 109–117, 2017 (bibliographic record opened in Crossref; paper not read; no figure drawn from it). Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, VC.IDP.NWDS new internal displacement associated with disasters (2023) and EN.POP.EL5M.ZS population in low elevation coastal zones below 5 m (2015), eight states. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 26WHO Health Cluster (ed.), Afghanistan earthquake (page dated 2 September 2025; magnitude 6.0 on 31 August 2025; Kunar, Laghman, Nangarhar and Nuristan; no casualty figures stated). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 25S. J. Cook, The August 2026 Rasuwa disaster (blog post, 10 September 2026; ice-rock avalanche, initial volume about 100 million cubic metres; no precise casualty figure). Royal Scottish Geographical Society, Perth. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: India and Pakistan (parties), Indus Waters Treaty 1960 (text not opened). World Bank as signatory, Washington. Observation year 1960. Accessed 2026-11-03.back