Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

6 min read1 figure0 tables9 notesNR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
    1. S.1 Abstract
    2. S.2 Key messages
    3. S.3 Headline finding
    4. S.4 At a glance
    5. S.5 What each steward reads in it
    6. S.6 What this edition is, and is not
  3. 1Small volumes, large dependence
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Export-control expansion that overlaps a cobalt quota squeeze
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

S.1Abstract

Critical minerals are the small-volume inputs that large industries depend on: lithium, cobalt, graphite, rare earths, gallium, germanium and copper. The 2025 and 2026 evidence shows supply concentration turning into disruption. Excluding rare earths, the average share of the top refining country rose to 72% in 2025, up from 70% in 20232. China produced 270,000 tonnes of the 390,000 tonnes of rare earths mined worldwide in 2025, and 99% of primary low-purity gallium1. In April 2025 China placed licence controls on seven heavy rare earths and announced an October 2025 expansion; the status of that expansion at the close is not bound5. The DRC replaced a cobalt export ban with quotas of up to 96,600 tonnes a year for 2026 and 2027, and cobalt metal approached USD 58,000 a tonne in the first quarter of 202612. The IEA estimates that full rare earth controls would put USD 6.5 trillion a year of downstream production outside China at risk2. Investment fell 9% in 2025, while public finance commitments in advanced economies reached about USD 65 billion2. Responses include the G7 roadmap of October 2025, a US price floor of USD 110 a kilogram for NdPr oxide and the EU 2030 benchmarks192011. This baseline reads these events as mechanisms, not as a list. It places no country or company in a league table, attributes no motive and recommends no policy.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the critical minerals baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  1. Yes: the top refiner averaged 72% excluding rare earths in 2025.2

    Is mineral supply concentrated?Reported

  2. Yes: China placed licence controls on seven heavy rare earths in April 2025. The status of the October 2025 expansion at the close is not bound.5

    Are export controls real?Reported

  3. Yes: the DRC caps cobalt exports, and Zimbabwe and Mozambique limited raw exports.29

    Do producers also restrict supply?Reported

  4. About USD 6.5 trillion a year of downstream output in the rare earth case.2

    What is at stake economically?Reported

  5. Slowly: rare earth refining concentration eased modestly, and refining lags mining.2

    Is diversification under way?Reported

  6. The G7, the EU, the United States and Australia use stockpiles, price floors and benchmarks.2112022

    Who is acting?Reported

  7. Little so far: the United States recycled USD 18 billion of critical minerals in 2025.1

    What does recycling add?Reported

  8. A lapse of Chinese controls that overlaps the cobalt quota and thin stockpiles. SCN-SR04-MAG-01

    What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-004

The DRC replaced a February 2025 cobalt export ban with quotas of up to 96,600 tonnes a year for 2026 and 2027, including 9,600 tonnes for strategic reserves, and cobalt metal approached USD 58,000 a tonne in the first quarter of 2026.

Figure S.1Cobalt: mine output and the export cap, tonnes
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
DRC mine output, 2025 (estimate)230,000
DRC export cap a year, 2026 and 202796,600
of which strategic reserves9,600

Source: USGS1. Output and exports are different measures; the cap covers exports of contained cobalt.

A producer that holds about two thirds of mined supply can move the market by decision. The quota also reserves 9,600 tonnes for state use and lets the regulator move unused quota to that reserve, which adds discretion for buyers210. Refined stocks stayed high, so prices of intermediates and refined metal diverged2.

S.4At a glance

72%

top refiner average, 20252

270,000tonnes

China rare earth output, 20251

99%

China primary gallium, 20251

96,600tonnes

DRC cobalt cap a year1

6.5USD trillion

output at risk a year2

65USD billion

public finance, 20252

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports reading critical minerals as one dependent network.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people mineral risk arrives as a late car, a dearer battery or a delayed device.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. A disruption puts very large downstream output at risk, public finance has grown fast, and refining projects outside the dominant supplier cost more.

NEXUS

Synthesis

Mineral risk is well described event by event and thinly measured as a system.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the 2026 state of the world’s critical minerals and strategic materials and the couplings through which it carries risk into other systems. It synthesises published evidence and ranks no country, company or asset.

What it is not

Not a mineral-security ranking, a trade-policy position, an investment recommendation or an assessment of any producer, company or government. Mining, trade and stockpile decisions rest with owners, regulators and competent authorities.

What comes next

National, regional and sector evidence feeds the 2027 critical minerals edition through the federation. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline: observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 2IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 1U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (version 1.3, May 2026; manuscript dated 6 February 2026). U.S. Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 5Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman (eds.), China Suspends Export Controls on Certain Critical Minerals and Related Items (client alert; announcements 55 to 58, 61 and 62 suspended from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026; Article 2 of Announcement 46 suspended to 27 November 2026; Announcement 18 of 4 April 2025 remains in force). Pillsbury, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 19G7, Roadmap to Promote Standards-based Markets for Critical Minerals, 31 October 2025 (read on the Natural Resources Canada news page). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 20MP Materials, MP Materials Announces Transformational Public-Private Partnership with the Department of Defense to Accelerate U.S. Rare Earth Magnet Independence, press release of 10 July 2025 (USD 400 million preferred equity; USD 110 per kilogram NdPr price floor for ten years; USD 150 million loan). MP Materials, Las Vegas. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 11European Commission, Critical Raw Materials Act (web page; 2030 benchmarks of 10% extraction, 40% processing, 25% recycling and a 65% single third-country cap, as shares of annual EU consumption). Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 9Fastmarkets (ed.), Cobalt export quotas: DRC sets limits to rebalance global supply (ARECOMS announcement of 21 September 2025; 18,125 tonnes to the end of 2025; 87,000 tonnes base plus a 9,600 tonne strategic quota for 2026; effective 16 October 2025). Fastmarkets, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 22CMC Markets (ed.), Unpacking the US-Australia Critical Minerals Framework (market commentary on the framework signed 20 and 21 October 2025; at least USD 1 billion from each country in six months; pipeline of up to USD 8.5 billion). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 10Shanghai Metals Market (ed.), Congo creates strategic cobalt reserve to influence supply and prices, regulator says (news report of 16 April 2026; reserve run by ARECOMS; 10% of national export volumes, 9,600 tonnes in 2026). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this summary

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Executive summary: Executive summary. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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