Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 critical minerals agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 critical minerals edition.

5 min read0 figures6 tables3 notesNR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Small volumes, large dependence
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Export-control expansion that overlaps a cobalt quota squeeze
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027: evidence pack for the critical minerals candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. M-01

    How would the October 2025 Chinese control expansion taking effect, overlapping the DRC cobalt quota, travel through magnets, batteries and defence supply at the same time?

    INI-SR04-MAG-01 · magnet and battery materials shock; first output: dependency analysis for six regions.

  2. M-02

    Which minerals are single points of failure across the most end uses?

    INI-SR04-SPF-02 · single points of failure; first output: mineral dependency register.

  3. M-03

    How large are stockpiles and reserves, and how fast could they be drawn?

    INI-SR04-STK-03 · stockpiles and reserves; first output: stockpile table.

  4. M-04

    Where are refining and smelting capacity outside the dominant supplier thinnest?

    INI-SR04-REF-04 · refining and smelting capacity; first output: capacity map.

  5. M-05

    How do by-product minerals depend on base metal smelters?

    INI-SR04-BYP-05 · by-product dependence; first output: by-product flow table.

  6. M-06

    Which producers and consumers publish stock and flow data on a comparable basis?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: coverage note.

  7. M-07

    How do mining footprints and safeguards change under faster supply growth?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. M-08

    Which mineral security capabilities have been tested in real shocks, and which are only planned?

    Mineral security capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 minerals portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-SR04-MAG-01Magnet and battery materials shockInitiativeM-01PROPOSED
INI-SR04-SPF-02Single points of failureInitiativeM-02PROPOSED
INI-SR04-STK-03Stockpiles and reservesInitiativeM-03PROPOSED
INI-SR04-REF-04Refining and smelting capacityInitiativeM-04PROPOSED
INI-SR04-BYP-05By-product dependenceInitiativeM-05PROPOSED
MSN-SR04-2027-01Magnet and battery materials Universe missionMissionM-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

The critical minerals edition reads national mineral chapters, sector editions and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed and its first editions are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

  1. 01

    National mineral chapters

    mineral reading in each national edition

    IN PREPARATION · national baselines

  2. 02

    Sector editions

    energy, infrastructure, digital, finance

    PLANNED · sector Baseline Editions

  3. 03

    Critical minerals system model

    the global mineral system of systems

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

  4. 04

    Strategic links

    SR-03 supply chains · SR-13 strategic technology infrastructure · SR-14 resilience investment

    PLANNED · strategic baselines

  5. 05

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

  6. 06

    Critical Minerals Report

    this series

    BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

  7. 07

    Evidence and correction

    one graph, many projections

    OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the critical minerals candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027: evidence pack for the critical minerals candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNED2027 critical minerals annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-SR04-2027-01 · Magnet and battery materials Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
MIN-001 · refining concentrationINI-SR04-REF-04refining and smelting capacityPUBLIC
MIN-002 · rare earth outputINI-SR04-SPF-02single points of failurePUBLIC
TRD-003 · export controlsINI-SR04-MAG-01magnet and battery materials shockPUBLIC
MIN-004 · cobalt quotaINI-SR04-STK-03stockpiles and reservesPUBLIC
MIN-005 · galliumINI-SR04-BYP-05by-product dependencePUBLIC
FIN-006 · value at risksector editions · key F reviewimpact tablePUBLIC
INF-008 · smeltersINI-SR04-BYP-05by-product dependencePUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-SR04-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the federationconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Mineral Commodity SummariesUSGSannualMIN-002
Global Critical Minerals OutlookIEAannualMIN-001
Export control announcementsMinistry of Commerce and customsper eventTRD-003
Cobalt quota decisionsARECOMSper eventMIN-004
Critical minerals listUSGS and Interiorper updatePOL-009
Company production reportsMP MaterialsquarterlyMIN-010
Strategic projects and action plansEuropean Commissionper roundPOL-011

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • annual publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-SR04-001Licence controls on heavy rare earths, 20255CORROBORATEDTRD · MINrisk object RSK-SR04-TRD-001
SIG-SR04-002DRC cobalt quota, 20259CORROBORATEDMIN · FINrisk object RSK-SR04-MIN-002
SIG-SR04-003Smelter fee collapse, 20262PARTIALINF · MINresearch question M-04

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 5Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman (eds.), China Suspends Export Controls on Certain Critical Minerals and Related Items (client alert; announcements 55 to 58, 61 and 62 suspended from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026; Article 2 of Announcement 46 suspended to 27 November 2026; Announcement 18 of 4 April 2025 remains in force). Pillsbury, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 9Fastmarkets (ed.), Cobalt export quotas: DRC sets limits to rebalance global supply (ARECOMS announcement of 21 September 2025; 18,125 tonnes to the end of 2025; 87,000 tonnes base plus a 9,600 tonne strategic quota for 2026; effective 16 October 2025). Fastmarkets, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 2IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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