References and record
Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Small volumes, large dependence
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Export-control expansion that overlaps a cobalt quota squeeze
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
C.148 sources
NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).
- 1U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (version 1.3, May 2026; manuscript dated 6 February 2026). U.S. Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 2IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
- 3IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris, 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 4IRENA (ed.), Geopolitics of the Energy Transition: Critical Materials. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi, 2023. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 5Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman (eds.), China Suspends Export Controls on Certain Critical Minerals and Related Items (client alert; announcements 55 to 58, 61 and 62 suspended from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026; Article 2 of Announcement 46 suspended to 27 November 2026; Announcement 18 of 4 April 2025 remains in force). Pillsbury, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
- 6China Briefing (ed.), How Will China’s Rare Earth Export Controls Impact Industries and Businesses? (April 2025 controls on seven rare earths; October 2025 additions and extraterritorial rules; 45-day licence period). Dezan Shira and Associates. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
- 7POST-CLOSE, context only: Law-firm briefing, BIS Suspends Affiliates Rule, China Pauses Rare Earth Export Controls (BIS final rule of 10 November 2025; China suspension from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026), read on the Legal 500 intelligence page. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 8POST-CLOSE, context only: Gonzalez, A., China rare earth export pause nears expiry amid persistent supply concentration, Mining Technology, 27 April 2026 (expiry on 10 November 2026; April 2025 controls remain; 2025 output shares). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
- 9Fastmarkets (ed.), Cobalt export quotas: DRC sets limits to rebalance global supply (ARECOMS announcement of 21 September 2025; 18,125 tonnes to the end of 2025; 87,000 tonnes base plus a 9,600 tonne strategic quota for 2026; effective 16 October 2025). Fastmarkets, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 7, chapter 8
- 10Shanghai Metals Market (ed.), Congo creates strategic cobalt reserve to influence supply and prices, regulator says (news report of 16 April 2026; reserve run by ARECOMS; 10% of national export volumes, 9,600 tonnes in 2026). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 8
- 11European Commission, Critical Raw Materials Act (web page; 2030 benchmarks of 10% extraction, 40% processing, 25% recycling and a 65% single third-country cap, as shares of annual EU consumption). Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
- 12European Commission, Critical raw materials (web page; 2023 list of 34 critical raw materials with copper and nickel listed as strategic; earlier lists 2011 to 2020). Brussels. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 13European Commission and the EU Circular Economy Stakeholder Platform, European Commission adopts RESourceEU Action Plan (platform post of 10 December 2025; plan adopted 3 December 2025). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
- 14The White House, Executive Order 14241, Immediate Measures to Increase American Mineral Production, 20 March 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 15The White House, Executive Order 14285, Unleashing America’s Offshore Critical Minerals and Resources, 24 April 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 16U.S. Department of the Interior, Interior Department releases final 2025 List of Critical Minerals (7 November 2025; 60 minerals; ten additions). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
- 17Congressional Research Service, U.S. Geological Survey’s Critical Minerals List, In Focus IF13145, 7 January 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
- 18G7 Leaders, G7 Critical Minerals Action Plan, Kananaskis, 17 June 2025 (read in an archive copy of the text). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
- 19G7, Roadmap to Promote Standards-based Markets for Critical Minerals, 31 October 2025 (read on the Natural Resources Canada news page). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
- 20MP Materials, MP Materials Announces Transformational Public-Private Partnership with the Department of Defense to Accelerate U.S. Rare Earth Magnet Independence, press release of 10 July 2025 (USD 400 million preferred equity; USD 110 per kilogram NdPr price floor for ten years; USD 150 million loan). MP Materials, Las Vegas. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
- 21MP Materials, MP Materials Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results, 26 February 2026 (REO in concentrate 50,692 tonnes; NdPr oxide 2,599 tonnes; first NdFeB magnets on commercial equipment in the fourth quarter of 2025; company-reported figures). MP Materials, Las Vegas. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
- 22CMC Markets (ed.), Unpacking the US-Australia Critical Minerals Framework (market commentary on the framework signed 20 and 21 October 2025; at least USD 1 billion from each country in six months; pipeline of up to USD 8.5 billion). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 4, chapter 6
- 23Ouyang, X., Liu, L., Liu, Q. et al., Systemic risks and cascading dynamics in the global cobalt supply chain, Environmental Science and Ecotechnology, 2026 (trade-linked flows, 1998 to 2019). Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 24Liu, X., Huang, H., An, F. et al., Resilience assessment of lithium ion battery supply chains under critical mineral shortages, iScience, 2026 (multi-tier network of nine battery manufacturers). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 25Han, Y., Wang, P., Liao, Z. et al., Exploring the divergence of rare earth trade networks with a global simulation model, iScience, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
- 26Manzuk, R.A. and Philippe, S., Uranium in cobalt-hydroxide exports from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nature Communications, 2026 (mine-level trade records, 2000 to 2024). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 27Morton, O., Bousfield, C.G., Dégny Valé, P. et al., Mining triggers extensive additional deforestation in sub-Saharan Africa, Nature, 2026 (16,627 mines, 2001 to 2020). Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6
- 28Yuan, X., Song, Q., Liu, Y. et al., Role of anthropogenic mineral circularity in addressing dual challenges of resource supply and waste management in global photovoltaic development, Nature Communications, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
- 29Teixeira, C., Gabbett, C., Synnatschke, K., Coleman, J.N. et al., A self-reliance framework for identifying strategic advanced materials, Nature Communications, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
- 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024/1252 establishing a framework for ensuring a secure and sustainable supply of critical raw materials (Critical Raw Materials Act), Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory; the EUR-Lex request returned no text. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 concerning batteries and waste batteries, Official Journal of the European Union, 2023, cited from memory. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2017/821 laying down supply chain due diligence obligations for importers of tin, tantalum and tungsten, their ores, and gold from conflict-affected and high-risk areas, Official Journal of the European Union, 2017, cited from memory. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD, OECD Due Diligence Guidance for Responsible Supply Chains of Minerals from Conflict-Affected and High-Risk Areas, third edition. OECD Publishing, Paris, 2016, cited from memory; the request returned an access error. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
- 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, The EITI Standard 2023, Oslo, cited from memory; the page returned not found. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Initiative for Responsible Mining Assurance, IRMA Standard for Responsible Mining, version 1.0, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
- 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: ICMM, UNEP and PRI, Global Industry Standard on Tailings Management, August 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 31000:2018, Risk management: guidelines. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations Secretary-General’s Panel on Critical Energy Transition Minerals, Resourcing the Energy Transition: Principles to Guide Critical Energy Transition Minerals towards Equity and Justice, September 2024, cited from memory; the request returned not found. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hund, K., La Porta, D., Fabregas, T.P., Laing, T. and Drexhage, J., Minerals for Climate Action: The Mineral Intensity of the Clean Energy Transition. World Bank, Washington, 2020, cited from memory; the request returned not found. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Sovacool, B.K. et al., Sustainable minerals and metals for a low-carbon future, Science 367, 30 to 33, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Graedel, T.E. et al., Criticality of metals and metalloids, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112(14), 4257 to 4262, 2015, cited from memory. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Gulley, A.L., Nassar, N.T. and Xun, S., China, the United States, and competition for resources that enable emerging technologies, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115(16), 4111 to 4115, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: U.S. Department of Energy, Critical Materials Assessment 2023. Washington, July 2023, cited from memory. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Seabed Authority, Council and Assembly sessions in Kingston, March and July 2026, on the draft exploitation regulations (Mining Code), taken from search-result summaries and a research-institute blog; no official statement was found. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of India, National Critical Mineral Mission, cleared by the Union Cabinet on 29 January 2025 (outlay of INR 16,300 crore over seven years), taken from search-result summaries; the press release was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
- 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China, export control announcements of 2025 (Announcements 18, 61 and 62 and the joint suspension, numbered 70 in some summaries), taken from secondary summaries; the official texts were not retrieved and sources disagree on the numbering. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
- 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: Schulz, K.J., DeYoung, J.H., Seal, R.R. and Bradley, D.C. (eds.), Critical Mineral Resources of the United States: Economic and Environmental Geology and Prospects for Future Supply, USGS Professional Paper 1802, 2017, cited from memory; named in the foreword of the 2026 Mineral Commodity Summaries. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA, Critical Minerals Security Programme, described in the Outlook 2025 and 2026 texts; the programme page was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4
C.2Publication record
Publication
- Title
- Strategic Systems Report 2026: Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials, Baseline Edition
- Series
- Reports · Strategic Systems Series SR-04
- Edition
- Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
- Version
- v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
- Publication ID
- NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
- Evidence close
- 30 September 2026
- Publication date
- October 2026
- DOI
- concept and version DOI at deposit
Publisher
- Publisher of record
- The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
- Place
- Toronto
- Editor
- Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
- Stewards
- GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
- Licence
- text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
- Copyright
- © 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
- Language
- English (en-GB) source edition
- Correspondence
- Registry correction pathway · editorial office
Colophon
- Format
- A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
- Typefaces
- Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
- Design standard
- Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
- Accessibility
- tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
- Production
- Reports editorial team, GCRI
Release path for this version
| Step | What happens | When |
|---|---|---|
| Draft | editorial self-check complete at evidence close | October 2026 |
| Steward review | five passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N) | Q4 2026 |
| Approval | publication authority approves the exact digest | before release |
| Deposit | concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set | at release |
| Succession | the 2027 critical minerals edition reports changes against this baseline | 2027 |
- Current version
- v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
- Previous edition
- none, first edition of the series
- Next edition
- NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0
- Latest version
- resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
- Correction route
- Registry correction pathway
- Notice types
- erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal
C.3Corrections log
0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.
| Edition | Version | Date | State | Change | Notice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SR-04 | NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | Draft | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | None |
Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.
C.4Open record
This edition’s open record
- Publication ID
- NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
- Desk identifier and series alias
- NR-STR-SR-04-2026-BL
- Collection
- None
- DOI
- Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
- Versions
- Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
- Bundle
- RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
- Licence
- CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0
Credit and identity
- ORCID
- Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
- ROR
- Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
- CRediT
- Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
- Account
- None needed to contribute; never a password
Find and follow
Search the open indexes for Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.
Mirrors and harvest
The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.
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}C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars
Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.
- F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
- F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
- F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
- Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
- SR-04 edition Reports Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
- F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
- F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
- Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.
What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; SR-04 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.
| Handoff | Between | What crosses, and when |
|---|---|---|
| F03 | Foundry to Reports | Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout). |
| F04 | Universe to Reports | After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review). |
| F05 | Foundry to Reports | National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review). |
| Ring | Nexus Standards to Reports | Nexus Standards: applied in editions. |
| F06 | Reports to Nexus Standards | Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction). |
| F12 | Reports to Universe | Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal). |
| Ring | Reports to Risk Academy | Risk Academy: taught in the open. |