Systems and sectors at baseline
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Small volumes, large dependence
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Export-control expansion that overlaps a cobalt quota squeeze
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
3.1Where each system stood at evidence close
MIN · Refining
Top refiner average share, excluding rare earths
72%up from 70% in 2023.
Reported2025IEA2
TRD · Controls
Chinese tariff codes under export control, against 2023
3xstatus of the October 2025 expansion at the close is not bound.
Reported2025IEA2
MIN · Cobalt
DRC export cap a year, 2026 and 2027
96,600tonnesless than half of 2024 production.
FIN · Value at risk
Downstream output outside China at risk, rare earths
6.5USD trillionabout 7% of combined GDP; modelled.
Reported2026IEA2
MIN · Rare earths
World mine output
390,000tonnesChina 270,000 tonnes.
Reported2025USGS1
SYS · Cross-system
Public finance commitments, advanced economies
65USD billionover four times 2023; disbursement lags.
Reported2025IEA2
3.2Domain posture
Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through critical minerals, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries critical minerals risk into each domain.
| Domain | Posture at baseline | Coupling | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | Sulphuric acid and water underpin mineral processing; evidence not consolidated here. | WAT → MIN | Inferred EQL 2 |
| ENE | The 2026 Gulf conflict curtailed aluminium and sulphur supply; energy minerals drive demand. | ENE ↔ MIN | Reported EQL 3 |
| FOO | Sulphuric acid links mineral processing and fertiliser; China curbed acid exports in May 2026. | MIN ↔ FOO | Reported EQL 3 |
| HLT | Imaging and device minerals such as gadolinium; not consolidated here. | MIN → HLT | Inferred EQL 2 |
| BIO | Mining triggered 187,000 hectares of direct deforestation and about 34 offsite hectares per direct hectare in Africa27. | MIN → BIO | Reported EQL 4 |
| CLI | Lithium demand rose by nearly 30% in 2024, led by vehicles and storage3. | CLI → MIN | Reported EQL 3 |
| INF | Smelters are strategic midstream infrastructure; the benchmark copper fee was USD 0 a tonne in 2026. | INF ↔ MIN | Reported EQL 3 |
| FIN | Investment fell 9% in 2025; public finance commitments reached about USD 65 billion. | FIN → MIN | Reported EQL 3 |
| DAT | Gallium and germanium underpin chips and optics; data-centre servers are a growing exposure. | MIN → DAT | Reported EQL 3 |
| AIC | Semiconductors, robotics and AI raise demand for gallium, germanium and indium. | AIC → MIN | Inferred EQL 2 |
| MIN | The core system: a 72% top-refiner average and 270,000 tonnes of Chinese rare earth output. | the core system | Reported EQL 4 |
| TRD | Chinese tariff codes under export control tripled since 2023; heavy rare earth licences placed in April 2025. | TRD ↔ MIN | Reported EQL 4 |
3.3Sector screens
All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on critical minerals, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.
| Code | Sector | Baseline evidence | Exposure to watch | Evidence coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS-00 | Cross-system | one mineral shock reaches magnets, batteries and chips2 | control lapse with cobalt quota | PARTIAL |
| GS-01 | Water | water and acid in processing | acid supply shock | THIN |
| GS-02 | Energy | lithium, graphite and copper demand from storage and grids2 | storage and grid build-out | GOOD |
| GS-03 | Food and agrifood | acid and sulphur link to fertiliser2 | acid export curbs | THIN |
| GS-04 | Health | imaging and device minerals | specialty material gaps | THIN |
| GS-05 | Finance and economy | USD 6.5 trillion of downstream output at risk in one case2 | price shock | PARTIAL |
| GS-06 | Development | producer revenue and export policies2 | export restrictions | PARTIAL |
| GS-07 | Climate | demand for clean-energy minerals3 | demand outpacing supply | PARTIAL |
| GS-08 | Disaster | Gulf conflict curtailed aluminium and sulphur2 | regional shutdown | THIN |
| GS-09 | Infrastructure | projected copper supply gap of 25% in 20352 | copper shortfall | GOOD |
| GS-10 | Cities | urban demand for batteries and cables | thin evidence here | THIN |
| GS-11 | Biodiversity | mining deforestation in Africa27 | mine expansion | PARTIAL |
| GS-12 | Earth observation | the Earth MRI programme remaps US resources1 | data access | THIN |
| GS-13 | Cyber and digital | chips and optics depend on gallium and germanium1 | single-supplier gaps | PARTIAL |
| GS-14 | Policy | stockpiles, price floors and benchmarks21119 | implementation gaps | GOOD |
| GS-15 | Science | cascade and trade-network models published232425 | data at operating scale | PARTIAL |
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 2IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (version 1.3, May 2026; manuscript dated 6 February 2026). U.S. Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 27Morton, O., Bousfield, C.G., Dégny Valé, P. et al., Mining triggers extensive additional deforestation in sub-Saharan Africa, Nature, 2026 (16,627 mines, 2001 to 2020). Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris, 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 11European Commission, Critical Raw Materials Act (web page; 2030 benchmarks of 10% extraction, 40% processing, 25% recycling and a 65% single third-country cap, as shares of annual EU consumption). Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 19G7, Roadmap to Promote Standards-based Markets for Critical Minerals, 31 October 2025 (read on the Natural Resources Canada news page). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 23Ouyang, X., Liu, L., Liu, Q. et al., Systemic risks and cascading dynamics in the global cobalt supply chain, Environmental Science and Ecotechnology, 2026 (trade-linked flows, 1998 to 2019). Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 24Liu, X., Huang, H., An, F. et al., Resilience assessment of lithium ion battery supply chains under critical mineral shortages, iScience, 2026 (multi-tier network of nine battery manufacturers). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 25Han, Y., Wang, P., Liao, Z. et al., Exploring the divergence of rare earth trade networks with a global simulation model, iScience, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back